The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 8, 2016, and was part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice−President.
Montana powerfully voted for the Democratic nominee, President Henry T. Ferguson, over the Republican nominee, Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. Ferguson won Montana by a large margin of 18.38%.
Analysis[]
Montana, a Republican−leaning state, had between 1968 and 2008 only voted for the Democratic presidential nominee twice – in 2000 and 2004, when Al Gore had won it with pluralities against John Ashcroft and Bob Smith. In 2008, Mitt Romney had carried the state by a margin of 20.5% against Dennis Kucinich. However, in 2012, when Romney decisively lost reelection to Henry Ferguson, Montana had also flipped, with Ferguson winning by a 7.4% margin. In 2016, Montana swung further Democratic, as Ferguson won the state by 18.4% against William Pryor.
Ferguson did very well among the Democratic base of Montana, which consists of three sections. Missoula County, which is home to the University of Montana, went for the President by a two−to−one margin. In the southwest, Ferguson dominated in Deer Lodge County and Silver Bow County – Democratic strongholds which have voted Republican only twice since 1912. He received more than 80% of the vote in Deer Lodge County and more than 70% of the vote in Silver Bow County. Native Americans gave Ferguson strong support; he swept counties such as Roosevelt, Big Horn, and Glacier, with more than 60% or 70% of the vote.
In addition to these Democratic strongholds, Ferguson also won heavy support in Montana's other major metropolitan counties, in addition to cutting heavily into Republican margins in Eastern Montana. That region is less unionized and more rural, and is home to more ranchers and less miners than elsewhere. Both Cascade County (Great Falls) and Lewis and Clark County (Helena, Montana's capital) gave Ferguson more than 60% of the vote, and he won a similar share of the vote in Yellowstone County (Billings), the state's most populous county.
Ferguson carried traditionally Republican Gallatin County (Bozeman), home to Montana State University, by 12%. Solidly Republican Flathead County (Kalispell) stuck with Pryor by a 1.1% margin – the worst Republican performance there since Barry Goldwater lost the county to Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Ferguson also won swing Blaine County, home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation, which has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1916 except for that of 1988, when the Farm Crisis induced it to vote for Michael Dukakis. Overall, Ferguson carried 33 of Montana's 56 counties.
During the same election, incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock was reelected to a second term in a landslide over Republican Greg Gianforte, Libertarian Ted Dunlap, and Green Christopher Zarcone. Winning by a nearly two−to−one margin, Bullock received 64.33% of the vote while Gianforte took in 35.27%, Dunlap 0.33%, and Zarcone 0.07%. At the state level, Democrats gained three seats in the Montana Senate, consolidating their majority in the chamber. They also gained control of the office of Secretary of State.
Results[]
| United States presidential election in Montana, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic (inc.) | Henry T. Ferguson | 293,068 | 58.95% | 3 | |
| Republican | William H. Pryor, Jr. | 201,693 | 40.57% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Sam Sloan | 945 | 0.19% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | 895 | 0.18% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle | 546 | 0.12% | 0 | |
| Totals | 497,147 | 100.00% | 3 | ||
Results by county[]
| County | Henry Ferguson Democratic |
William Pryor Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 2,311 | 47.66% | 2,528 | 52.14% | 10 | 0.20% | −217 | −4.48% | 4,849 |
| Big Horn | 2,918 | 69.08% | 1,302 | 30.83% | 4 | 0.09% | 1,616 | 38.25% | 4,224 |
| Blaine | 1,783 | 66.74% | 888 | 33.26% | 0 | 0.00% | 895 | 33.48% | 2,671 |
| Broadwater | 1,465 | 46.77% | 1,667 | 53.23% | 0 | 0.00% | −202 | −6.46% | 3,132 |
| Carbon | 3,480 | 58.32% | 2,487 | 41.68% | 0 | 0.00% | 993 | 16.64% | 5,967 |
| Carter | 234 | 30.03% | 545 | 69.97% | 0 | 0.00% | −311 | −39.94% | 779 |
| Cascade | 22,064 | 64.17% | 12,183 | 35.44% | 137 | 0.39% | 9,881 | 28.73% | 34,384 |
| Chouteau | 1,331 | 51.42% | 1,252 | 48.35% | 6 | 0.23% | 79 | 3.07% | 2,589 |
| Custer | 2,864 | 55.23% | 2,311 | 44.58% | 10 | 0.19% | 553 | 10.65% | 5,185 |
| Daniels | 498 | 52.19% | 456 | 47.71% | 1 | 0.10% | 42 | 4.48% | 955 |
| Dawson | 2,461 | 56.83% | 1,861 | 42.97% | 9 | 0.20% | 600 | 13.86% | 4,331 |
| Deer Lodge | 3,359 | 80.09% | 830 | 19.80% | 5 | 0.11% | 2,529 | 60.29% | 4,194 |
| Fallon | 662 | 44.63% | 819 | 55.17% | 3 | 0.20% | −157 | −10.54% | 1,484 |
| Fergus | 2,826 | 48.39% | 3,002 | 51.41% | 12 | 0.20% | −176 | −3.02% | 5,840 |
| Flathead | 24,252 | 49.38% | 24,770 | 50.43% | 93 | 0.19% | −518 | −1.05% | 49,115 |
| Gallatin | 29,742 | 55.81% | 23,443 | 43.99% | 107 | 0.20% | 6,299 | 11.82% | 53,292 |
| Garfield | 228 | 31.87% | 485 | 67.72% | 3 | 0.41% | −257 | −35.85% | 716 |
| Glacier | 3,766 | 74.41% | 1,264 | 24.98% | 31 | 0.61% | 2,502 | 49.43% | 5,061 |
| Golden Valley | 215 | 45.62% | 256 | 54.38% | 0 | 0.00% | −41 | −8.76% | 471 |
| Granite | 835 | 47.05% | 936 | 52.73% | 4 | 0.22% | −101 | −5.68% | 1,775 |
| Hill | 4,343 | 67.58% | 2,070 | 32.22% | 13 | 0.20% | 2,273 | 35.36% | 6,426 |
| Jefferson | 3,607 | 54.10% | 3,054 | 45.80% | 7 | 0.10% | 553 | 8.30% | 6,668 |
| Judith Basin | 521 | 43.37% | 679 | 56.55% | 1 | 0.08% | −158 | −13.18% | 1,201 |
| Lake | 7,420 | 56.60% | 5,664 | 43.21% | 26 | 0.19% | 1,756 | 13.39% | 13,110 |
| Lewis and Clark | 21,775 | 63.58% | 12,401 | 36.22% | 69 | 0.20% | 9,374 | 27.36% | 34,245 |
| Liberty | 498 | 52.13% | 455 | 47.56% | 3 | 0.31% | 43 | 4.57% | 956 |
| Lincoln | 4,474 | 48.19% | 4,782 | 51.51% | 28 | 0.30% | −308 | −3.32% | 9,284 |
| McCone | 543 | 51.24% | 516 | 48.67% | 1 | 0.09% | 27 | 2.57% | 1,060 |
| Madison | 2,122 | 44.74% | 2,617 | 55.18% | 4 | 0.08% | −495 | −10.44% | 4,743 |
| Meagher | 461 | 47.24% | 512 | 52.56% | 2 | 0.20% | −51 | −5.32% | 975 |
| Mineral | 1,104 | 55.12% | 891 | 44.49% | 8 | 0.39% | 213 | 10.63% | 2,003 |
| Missoula | 40,970 | 69.41% | 17,937 | 30.39% | 119 | 0.20% | 23,033 | 39.02% | 59,026 |
| Musselshell | 1,097 | 45.39% | 1,319 | 54.61% | 0 | 0.00% | −222 | −9.22% | 2,416 |
| Park | 5,278 | 56.72% | 4,009 | 43.08% | 19 | 0.20% | 1,269 | 13.64% | 9,306 |
| Petroleum | 133 | 41.38% | 189 | 58.62% | 0 | 0.00% | −56 | −17.24% | 322 |
| Phillips | 1,026 | 47.46% | 1,132 | 52.41% | 3 | 0.13% | −106 | −4.95% | 2,161 |
| Pondera | 1,543 | 56.80% | 1,164 | 42.87% | 9 | 0.33% | 379 | 13.93% | 2,716 |
| Powder River | 397 | 37.79% | 652 | 62.02% | 2 | 0.19% | −255 | −24.23% | 1,051 |
| Powell | 1,479 | 52.95% | 1,312 | 46.95% | 3 | 0.10% | 167 | 6.00% | 2,794 |
| Prairie | 302 | 43.88% | 384 | 55.69% | 3 | 0.43% | −82 | −11.81% | 689 |
| Ravalli | 11,910 | 53.30% | 10,391 | 46.50% | 45 | 0.20% | 1,519 | 6.80% | 22,346 |
| Richland | 2,334 | 48.16% | 2,479 | 51.14% | 34 | 0.70% | −145 | −2.98% | 4,847 |
| Roosevelt | 2,507 | 68.72% | 1,137 | 31.18% | 4 | 0.10% | 1,370 | 37.54% | 3,648 |
| Rosebud | 2,214 | 64.35% | 1,219 | 35.45% | 7 | 0.20% | 995 | 28.90% | 3,440 |
| Sanders | 2,990 | 50.59% | 2,890 | 48.91% | 30 | 0.50% | 100 | 1.68% | 5,910 |
| Sheridan | 1,079 | 58.91% | 746 | 40.71% | 7 | 0.38% | 333 | 18.20% | 1,832 |
| Silver Bow | 12,888 | 78.40% | 3,075 | 18.71% | 476 | 2.89% | 9,813 | 59.69% | 16,439 |
| Stillwater | 2,494 | 51.25% | 2,372 | 48.75% | 0 | 0.00% | 122 | 2.50% | 4,866 |
| Sweet Grass | 868 | 41.33% | 1,226 | 58.39% | 6 | 0.28% | −358 | −17.06% | 2,100 |
| Teton | 1,694 | 53.30% | 1,482 | 46.61% | 3 | 0.09% | 212 | 6.69% | 3,179 |
| Toole | 1,115 | 54.94% | 913 | 44.97% | 2 | 0.09% | 202 | 9.97% | 2,030 |
| Treasure | 215 | 48.60% | 228 | 51.40% | 0 | 0.00% | −13 | −2.80% | 443 |
| Valley | 2,484 | 64.08% | 1,381 | 35.64% | 11 | 0.28% | 1,103 | 28.44% | 3,876 |
| Wheatland | 438 | 46.37% | 506 | 53.63% | 0 | 0.00% | −68 | −7.26% | 944 |
| Wibaux | 263 | 49.03% | 273 | 50.79% | 1 | 0.18% | −10 | −1.76% | 537 |
| Yellowstone | 41,188 | 60.09% | 26,351 | 38.44% | 1,005 | 1.47% | 14,837 | 21.65% | 68,544 |
| Totals | 293,068 | 58.95% | 201,693 | 40.57% | 2,386 | 0.48% | 91,375 | 18.38% | 497,147 |
By congressional district[]
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At−Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Ferguson | Pryor | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At−large | 58.9% | 40.6% | Kathleen Williams |
Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic[]
- Chouteau (largest city: Fort Benton)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Dawson (largest city: Glendive)
- Liberty (largest town: Chester)
- McCone (largest town: Circle)
- Mineral (largest town: Superior)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)
- Stillwater (largest town: Columbus)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)