United States presidential election in Indiana, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)

The 2016 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Indiana voters chose eleven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice-President.

Before this election, Indiana had not voted Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide in 1964, although Mitt Romney had won the state by less than 50,000 votes in 2012. Republican candidate William H. Pryor, Jr. naturally considered Indiana critical given its GOP loyalty and campaigned in the state during October, where he argued to a very negative reaction that the United States should carpet-bomb Syria.

Indiana was won by incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson (D-Texas) with 55.98% of the popular vote, against Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. (R-Alabama), with 43.56% of the popular vote. Powerful hostility to Pryor's views on foreign policy, trade, and entitlements, and in particular to his running mate, Paul Ryan's, advocacy for Social Security privatization, allowed Ferguson to carry the state, although Indiana was still 9.79% more Republican than the national average.

Ferguson became only the second Democrat since the Civil War, following Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, to carry Steuben County. This was also the first occasion since 1932 that Fulton County and Newton County voted Democratic. However, Pryor carried Martin County, which was one of only four counties in the country to shift from the Democrats to the Republicans in 2016.

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Indiana
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic (inc.)	Henry T. Ferguson	1,531,029	55.98%	11
	Republican	William H. Pryor, Jr.	1,191,348	43.56%	0
	Libertarian	Sam Sloan	10,940	0.40%	0
	Green	Jill Stein	1,641	0.06%	0
Totals			2,734,958	100.00%	11

Results by county

County	Henry Thomas Ferguson Democratic		William Holcombe Pryor, Jr. Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	7,300	55.77%	5,663	43.26%	127	0.97%	1,637	12.51%	13,090
Allen	82,323	55.95%	64,288	43.69%	526	0.36%	18,035	12.26%	147,137
Bartholomew	15,923	49.01%	16,402	50.48%	165	0.51%	-479	-1.47%	32,490
Benton	1,835	50.06%	1,827	49.83%	4	0.11%	8	0.23%	3,666
Blackford	2,990	61.78%	1,801	37.23%	48	0.99%	1,189	24.55%	4,839
Boone	12,382	38.17%	19,692	61.51%	104	0.32%	-7,310	-23.34%	32,178
Brown	4,323	54.41%	3,579	45.05%	43	0.54%	744	9.36%	7,945
Carroll	4,484	51.76%	4,133	47.94%	26	0.30%	351	3.82%	8,643
Cass	7,698	54.18%	6,440	45.32%	71	0.50%	1,258	8.86%	14,209
Clark	27,793	54.34%	23,099	45.16%	255	0.49%	4,694	9.18%	51,147
Clay	5,649	50.07%	5,552	49.21%	81	0.72%	97	0.86%	11,282
Clinton	5,767	48.32%	6,110	51.19%	59	0.46%	-343	-2.87%	11,936
Crawford	2,857	62.20%	1,696	36.93%	40	0.87%	1,161	25.27%	4,593
Daviess	4,208	39.08%	6,520	60.55%	40	0.37%	-2,312	-21.47%	10,768
Dearborn	10,909	45.48%	13,031	54.32%	47	0.20%	-2,122	-8.84%	23,987
Decatur	5,247	47.16%	5,827	52.36%	53	0.48%	-580	-5.20%	11,127
De Kalb	9,034	53.45%	7,723	45.69%	145	0.86%	1,311	7.76%	16,902
Delaware	28,784	63.79%	16,169	35.83%	170	0.38%	12,615	27.96%	45,123
Dubois	11,039	55.24%	8,909	44.58%	36	0.18%	2,130	10.66%	19,984
Elkhart	31,660	48.24%	33,402	50.89%	568	0.87%	-1,742	-2.65%	65,630
Fayette	5,720	60.02%	3,774	39.60%	36	0.38%	1,946	20.42%	9,530
Floyd	19,102	51.04%	18,088	48.33%	235	0.63%	1,014	2.71%	37,425
Fountain	3,867	51.62%	3,595	47.98%	30	0.40%	272	3.64%	7,492
Franklin	5,687	51.64%	5,297	48.10%	29	0.26%	390	3.54%	11,013
Fulton	4,194	50.08%	4,147	49.53%	33	0.39%	47	0.55%	8,374
Gibson	8,457	54.62%	6,946	44.86%	81	0.52%	1,511	9.76%	15,484
Grant	13,175	52.05%	11,958	47.24%	179	0.71%	1,217	4.81%	25,312
Greene	7,067	51.21%	6,661	48.26%	73	0.53%	406	2.95%	13,801
Hamilton	57,263	37.12%	96,455	62.53%	538	0.35%	-39,192	-25.41%	154,256
Hancock	14,650	40.49%	21,394	59.13%	137	0.38%	-6,744	-18.64%	36,181
Harrison	9,671	52.11%	8,719	46.98%	168	0.91%	952	5.13%	18,558
Hendricks	30,254	40.04%	45,154	59.76%	151	0.20%	-14,900	-19.72%	75,559
Henry	11,361	56.37%	8,671	43.02%	123	0.61%	2,690	13.35%	20,155
Howard	20,238	54.93%	16,321	44.30%	284	0.77%	3,917	10.63%	36,843
Huntington	7,672	47.82%	8,278	51.60%	93	0.58%	-606	-3.78%	16,043
Jackson	9,923	56.47%	7,517	42.77%	133	0.76%	2,406	13.70%	17,573
Jasper	6,450	48.21%	6,888	51.49%	40	0.30%	-438	-3.28%	13,378
Jay	4,804	60.16%	3,113	38.98%	69	0.86%	1,691	21.18%	7,986
Jefferson	7,953	58.72%	5,493	40.56%	98	0.72%	2,460	18.16%	13,544
Jennings	6,759	60.62%	4,341	38.93%	50	0.45%	2,418	21.69%	11,150
Johnson	26,733	40.20%	39,469	59.35%	298	0.45%	-12,736	-19.15%	66,500
Knox	8,964	57.77%	6,460	41.64%	92	0.59%	2,504	16.13%	15,516
Kosciusko	12,362	38.53%	19,485	60.73%	237	0.74%	-7,123	-22.20%	32,084
Lagrange	4,571	47.78%	4,932	51.56%	63	0.66%	-361	-3.78%	9,566
Lake	148,791	73.95%	51,633	25.66%	781	0.39%	97,158	48.29%	201,205
La Porte	30,738	68.00%	14,342	31.73%	123	0.27%	16,396	36.27%	45,203
Lawrence	9,404	49.10%	9,643	50.35%	105	0.55%	-239	-1.25%	19,152
Madison	33,035	61.28%	20,660	38.32%	214	0.40%	12,375	22.96%	53,909
Marion	235,909	65.10%	124,985	34.49%	1,478	0.41%	110,924	30.61%	362,372
Marshall	8,656	47.87%	9,290	51.38%	136	0.75%	-634	-3.51%	18,082
Martin	2,364	49.15%	2,437	50.68%	8	0.17%	-73	-1.53%	4,809
Miami	6,858	50.87%	6,508	48.27%	116	0.86%	350	2.60%	13,482
Monroe	39,258	67.16%	18,821	32.20%	375	0.64%	20,437	34.96%	58,454
Montgomery	6,649	43.87%	8,447	55.73%	60	0.40%	-1,798	-11.86%	15,156
Morgan	13,097	41.87%	18,042	57.68%	141	0.45%	-4,945	-15.81%	31,280
Newton	3,221	55.58%	2,562	44.21%	12	0.24%	659	11.37%	5,795
Noble	9,013	53.36%	7,801	46.19%	76	0.45%	1,212	7.17%	16,890
Ohio	1,610	55.12%	1,303	44.61%	8	0.27%	307	10.51%	2,921
Orange	4,136	50.49%	4,025	49.13%	31	0.38%	111	1.36%	8,192
Owen	4,357	50.92%	4,145	48.44%	55	0.64%	212	2.48%	8,557
Parke	3,333	50.64%	3,235	49.15%	14	0.21%	98	1.49%	6,582
Perry	5,532	68.68%	2,501	31.05%	22	0.27%	3,031	37.63%	8,055
Pike	3,402	56.91%	2,534	42.40%	41	0.69%	868	14.51%	5,977
Porter	48,854	63.29%	27,914	36.16%	422	0.55%	20,940	27.13%	77,190
Posey	6,543	52.48%	5,882	47.18%	42	0.34%	661	5.30%	12,467
Pulaski	2,848	52.17%	2,591	47.46%	20	0.37%	257	4.71%	5,459
Putnam	7,203	48.95%	7,483	50.85%	29	0.20%	-280	-1.90%	14,715
Randolph	5,740	54.89%	4,568	43.68%	150	1.43%	1,172	11.21%	10,458
Ripley	6,245	48.75%	6,527	50.95%	38	0.30%	-282	-2.20%	12,810
Rush	3,619	50.17%	3,574	49.54%	21	0.29%	45	0.63%	7,214
St. Joseph	71,550	65.01%	37,864	34.40%	646	0.59%	33,686	30.61%	110,060
Scott	5,656	62.15%	3,436	37.75%	9	0.10%	2,220	24.40%	9,101
Shelby	8,504	47.26%	9,416	52.33%	74	0.41%	-912	-5.07%	17,994
Spencer	5,697	57.09%	4,259	42.68%	23	0.23%	1,438	14.41%	9,979
Starke	5,724	62.04%	3,483	37.75%	19	0.21%	2,241	24.29%	9,226
Steuben	8,132	55.83%	6,379	43.79%	55	0.38%	1,753	12.04%	14,566
Sullivan	5,289	61.79%	3,238	37.84%	32	0.37%	2,051	23.95%	8,559
Switzerland	2,291	61.93%	1,389	37.56%	19	0.51%	902	24.37%	3,699
Tippecanoe	37,240	59.57%	25,151	40.23%	124	0.20%	12,089	19.34%	62,515
Tipton	3,712	49.43%	3,758	50.04%	40	0.53%	-46	-0.61%	7,510
Union	1,751	53.22%	1,528	46.42%	12	0.36%	223	6.80%	3,291
Vanderburgh	42,577	58.72%	29,554	40.76%	376	0.52%	13,023	17.96%	72,507
Vermillion	4,594	66.20%	2,324	33.50%	21	0.30%	2,270	32.70%	6,939
Vigo	24,803	62.29%	14,892	37.40%	123	0.31%	9,911	24.89%	39,818
Wabash	6,572	48.80%	6,762	50.20%	134	1.00%	-190	-1.40%	13,468
Warren	2,109	53.66%	1,813	46.14%	8	0.20%	296	7.52%	3,930
Warrick	14,330	48.43%	15,152	51.21%	107	0.36%	-822	-2.78%	29,589
Washington	6,006	52.77%	5,334	46.86%	42	0.37%	672	5.91%	11,382
Wayne	15,112	59.08%	10,372	40.55%	95	0.37%	4,740	18.53%	25,579
Wells	6,612	50.15%	6,453	48.94%	120	0.91%	159	1.21%	13,185
White	5,254	52.26%	4,769	47.44%	30	0.32%	485	4.82%	10,053
Whitley	7,997	51.19%	7,550	48.32%	76	0.49%	447	2.87%	15,623
Totals	1,531,029	55.98%	1,191,348	43.56%	12,581	0.46%	339,681	12.42%	2,734,958

By congressional district

Henry Ferguson won seven of Indiana's nine congressional districts, including one district held by a Republican.

District	Ferguson	Pryor	Representative
1st	71.32%	28.24%	Pete Visclosky
2nd	56.14%	43.26%	Brendan Mullen
3rd	53.36%	46.10%	Tommy Schrader
4th	49.07%	50.68%	Todd Rokita
5th	49.43%	50.20%	Susan Brooks
6th	52.83%	46.73%	Luke Messer
			Greg Pence
7th	66.08%	33.36%	André Carson
8th	55.96%	43.62%	Brad Ellsworth
9th	52.48%	46.96%	Barron Hill

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

• Adams (largest city: Decatur)
• Allen (largest city: Fort Wayne)
• Benton (largest city: Fowler)
• Brown (largest city: Nashville)
• Carroll (largest city: Delphi)
• Cass (largest city: Logansport)
• Clay (largest city: Brazil)
• DeKalb (largest city: Auburn)
• Dubois (largest city: Jasper)
• Fayette (largest city: Connersville)
• Fountain (largest city: Attica)
• Franklin (largest city: Brookville)
• Fulton (largest city: Rochester)
• Grant (largest city: Marion)
• Howard (largest city: Kokomo)
• Jackson (largest city: Seymour)
• Miami (largest city: Peru)
• Newton (largest town: Kentland)
• Noble (largest city: Kendalville)
• Orange (largest city: Paoli)
• Owen (largest city: Spencer)
• Parke (largest city: Rockville)
• Pulaski (largest town: Winamac)
• Steuben (largest city: Angola)
• Union (largest town: Liberty)
• Warren (largest town: Williamsport)
• Washington (largest city: Salem)
• Wells (largest city: Bluffton)
• White (largest city: Monticello)
• Whitley (largest city: Columbia City)

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

• Martin (largest city: Loogootee)