United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)

The 2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election, which was held throughout all fifty states and D.C. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice−President.

Connecticut voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic nominee, incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson of Texas, over the Republican nominee, Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama. Ferguson ran with Vice−President Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, while Pryor's running mate was Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Ferguson carried Connecticut by a wide margin of 35.72%. His 67.81% vote share is the largest for a Democrat in Connecticut presidential election history, and the largest for any party since John Quincy Adams in 1828.

Analysis

Connecticut is a part of New England, an area of the country that has in recent decades leaned towards the Democratic Party. The state went Republican in most of the elections from 1948 to 1992, the exceptions being the three in the 1960s. However, it has gone Democratic in most of the elections since Mario Cuomo's narrow 1996 victory, aside from Mitt Romney's landslide win over Dennis Kucinich in 2008. Romney had subsequently lost the state by a landslide to Ferguson in 2012, and in 2016, it, along with Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, was written off by Pryor.

Consequently, President Ferguson, as in 2012, swept the state. Connecticut was one of twelve states where every county voted Democratic. Ferguson received more than 60% of the vote in all but one of the state's counties, and exceeded 70% in three – Hartford, Middlesex, and New London. Pryor's best county was traditionally Republican Litchfield County in the northwestern corner of the state, which he lost by 18.35% – greater than Mitt Romney's 4.49% loss there in 2012.

In Connecticut's 4th congressional district, Democrat Jim Himes defeated Republican John Shaban to pickup the seat of retiring Republican Representative Chris Shays. This was largely because President Ferguson carried the district with a staggering 64% of the vote – one of his best performances in a Republican−held district. At the state level, Democrats picked up 6 seats in the Connecticut House of Representatives and 1 seat in the Connecticut Senate.

Connecticut was Ferguson's seventh−best state in the country that year.

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic (inc.)	Henry T. Ferguson	1,115,420	67.81%	7
	Republican	William H. Pryor, Jr.	527,855	32.09%	0
	No party	Write−ins	1,645	0.10%	0
Totals			1,644,920	100.00%	7

Results by county

County	Henry Ferguson Democratic		William Pryor Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Fairfield	265,951	63.14%	155,001	36.80%	257	0.06%	110,950	26.34%	421,209
Hartford	291,599	71.67%	114,858	28.23%	407	0.10%	176,741	43.44%	406,864
Litchfield	57,619	59.13%	39,726	40.78%	97	0.09%	17,893	18.35%	97,442
Middlesex	62,409	70.42%	26,038	29.39%	177	0.19%	36,371	41.03%	88,624
New Haven	259,998	68.60%	118,629	31.31%	379	0.09%	141,369	37.29%	379,006
New London	89,064	72.10%	34,341	27.81%	123	0.09%	46,623	44.29%	123,528
Tolland	53,539	69.15%	23,730	30.65%	155	0.20%	29,809	38.50%	77,424
Windham	35,241	69.34%	15,532	30.57%	50	0.09%	19,709	38.77%	50,823
Totals	1,115,420	67.81%	527,855	32.09%	1,645	0.10%	587,565	35.72%	1,644,920

By congressional district

Henry Ferguson carried all 5 of Connecticut's congressional districts.

District	Ferguson	Pryor	Representative
1st	72.84%	27.08%	John Larson
2nd	68.94%	30.90%	Joe Courtney
3rd	71.31%	28.61%	Rosa DeLauro
4th	64.12%	35.84%	John Shaban
			Jim Himes
5th	61.50%	38.37%	Elizabeth Esty