Changes: United States presidential election in Alabama, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)

Revision as of 23:26, 15 July 2020

The 2016 United States presidential election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election, in which all fifty states and the District of Columbia participated. Alabama voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama, and running mate Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, against Democratic Party nominee, incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson and his running mate, Vice-President Amy Klobuchar.

William Pryor won the election in Alabama with 61.6% of the vote. Henry Ferguson received 38.4% of the vote. Pryor won his home state by a 23.3% margin of victory, and carried most of the counties and congressional districts. Alabama was Pryor's best state in the country in 2016, and was the only state to trend Republican compared to the 2012 election.

Analysis

Pryor, who had been the state's junior Senator since 2009, enjoyed a consistent lead in statewide polls over Ferguson throughout the general election, in spite of trailing him badly in all regions of the United States outside of the Deep South. In 2012, Alabama had been won by Republican President Mitt Romney by a margin of 59-41%, voting for him by 18%; this year, the state went for its native son Pryor by a margin of 23%.

Pryor won 52 of the state's 67 counties. Compared to Romney in 2012, he ran stronger throughout much of North Alabama, which is predominantly white, but worse in South Alabama, where more African Americans live. Ferguson's county wins were confined predominantly to the traditionally Democratic Black Belt. He received more than 60% of the vote in Montgomery County, home to Montgomery, the state's capital city. Besides these counties, Ferguson also carried Jefferson County, home to the state's largest city of Birmingham. Ultimately, Pryor's dominance in the state was built upon his massive landslides in the state's suburban areas; several Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile suburbs gave him more than 70% of the vote. He also received more than 60% of the vote in Madison County, home to Huntsville.

All House incumbents were reelected in 2016, while Republican Senator Richard C. Shelby won reelection to a sixth term over his Democratic challenger Ron Crumpton, 73.96-26.04%, running ahead of Pryor by more than 12%.

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Alabama
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Popular vote		Electoral vote
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Count	%	Count	%
	Republican	William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama	Paul Ryan of Wisconsin	1,308,847	61.64%	9	100.00%
	Democratic	Henry T. Ferguson of Texas	Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota	814,525	38.36%	0	0.00%
Total				2,123,372	100.00%	9	100.00%

Results by county

	William Holcombe Pryor, Jr. Republican		Henry Thomas Ferguson Democratic		Margin		Total votes cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Autauga	17,504	70.09%	7,469	29.91%	10,035	40.18%	24,973
Baldwin	75,810	79.62%	19,405	20.38%	56,405	59.24%	95,215
Barbour	4,595	43.89%	5,874	56.11%	-1,279	-12.22%	10,469
Bibb	6,175	70.02%	2,644	29.98%	3,531	40.04%	8,819
Blount	21,143	82.63%	4,445	17.37%	16,698	65.26%	25,588
Bullock	1,005	21.34%	3,705	78.66%	-2,700	-57.32%	4,710
Butler	4,485	51.36%	4,247	48.64%	238	2.72%	8,732
Calhoun	30,623	63.98%	17,241	36.02%	13,382	27.96%	47,864
Chambers	7,473	53.76%	6,427	46.24%	1,046	7.52%	13,900
Cherokee	7,591	70.73%	3,142	29.27%	4,449	41.46%	10,733
Chilton	14,100	76.76%	4,269	23.24%	9,831	53.52%	18,369
Choctaw	3,857	52.89%	3,435	47.11%	422	5.78%	7,292
Clarke	7,363	56.50%	5,668	43.50%	1,695	13.00%	13,031
Clay	4,659	70.33%	1,965	29.67%	2,694	40.66%	6,624
Cleburne	5,226	79.26%	1,367	20.74%	3,859	58.52%	6,593
Coffee	15,775	75.96%	4,992	24.04%	10,783	51.92%	20,767
Colbert	14,682	58.93%	10,233	41.07%	4,449	17.86%	24,915
Conecuh	3,175	48.21%	3,410	51.79%	235	3.58%	6,585
Coosa	2,982	56.77%	2,270	43.23%	712	13.54%	5,252
Covington	12,033	75.49%	3,907	24.51%	8,126	50.98%	15,940
Crenshaw	3,792	60.51%	2,475	39.49%	1,317	21.02%	6,267
Cullman	30,185	79.70%	7,688	20.30%	22,497	59.40%	37,873
Dale	13,576	72.41%	5,173	27.59%	8,403	44.82%	18,749
Dallas	5,773	30.72%	13,019	69.28%	-7,246	-38.56%	18,792
DeKalb	19,444	75.29%	6,382	24.71%	13,062	50.58%	25,826
Elmore	26,514	71.16%	10,746	28.84%	15,768	42.32%	37,260
Escambia	9,559	64.39%	5,286	35.61%	4,273	28.78%	14,845
Etowah	28,362	64.22%	15,802	35.78%	12,560	28.44%	44,164
Fayette	5,698	69.07%	2,551	30.93%	3,147	38.14%	8,249
Franklin	7,627	63.35%	4,413	36.65%	3,214	26.70%	12,040
Geneva	9,557	81.28%	2,201	18.72%	7,356	62.56%	11,758
Greene	670	13.73%	4,210	86.27%	-3,540	-72.54%	4,880
Hale	2,945	36.63%	5,095	63.37%	-2,150	-26.74%	8,040
Henry	5,093	63.09%	2,979	36.91%	2,114	26.18%	8,072
Houston	30,427	71.36%	12,212	28.64%	18,215	42.72%	42,639
Jackson	14,651	69.82%	6,333	30.18%	8,318	39.64%	20,984
Jefferson	146,133	48.04%	158,058	51.96%	-11,925	-3.92%	304,191
Lamar	4,845	69.55%	2,121	30.45%	2,724	39.10%	6,966
Lauderdale	26,083	65.99%	13,442	34.01%	12,641	31.98%	39,525
Lawrence	9,191	61.98%	5,638	38.02%	3,553	23.96%	14,829
Lee	35,290	59.62%	23,901	40.38%	11,389	19.24%	59,191
Limestone	30,027	74.52%	10,267	25.48%	19,760	49.04%	40,294
Lowndes	1,690	25.28%	4,994	74.72%	-3,304	-49.44%	6,684
Macon	1,149	12.57%	7,991	87.43%	-6,842	-74.86%	9,140
Madison	103,573	63.40%	59,816	36.60%	43,757	26.80%	163,389
Marengo	4,782	43.50%	6,212	56.50%	-1,430	-13.00%	10,994
Marion	9,373	72.19%	3,611	27.81%	5,762	44.38%	12,984
Marshall	28,634	81.08%	6,682	18.92%	21,952	62.16%	35,316
Mobile	97,078	56.20%	75,659	43.80%	21,419	12.40%	172,737
Monroe	5,697	55.47%	4,574	44.53%	1,123	10.94%	10,271
Montgomery	36,961	38.55%	58,917	61.45%	-21,956	-22.90%	95,878
Morgan	37,942	74.92%	12,702	25.08%	25,240	49.84%	50,644
Perry	1,302	24.66%	3,976	75.34%	-2,674	-50.68%	5,278
Pickens	5,361	56.18%	4,181	43.82%	1,180	12.36%	9,542
Pike	7,398	56.18%	5,770	43.82%	1,628	12.36%	13,168
Randolph	6,718	65.95%	3,469	34.05%	3,249	31.90%	10,187
Russell	8,890	46.17%	10,366	53.83%	-1,476	-7.66%	19,256
St. Clair	30,639	79.79%	7,761	20.21%	22,878	59.58%	38,400
Shelby	78,518	77.55%	22,736	22.45%	55,782	55.10%	101,254
Sumter	1,491	23.26%	4,920	76.74%	-3,429	-53.48%	6,411
Talladega	20,015	56.92%	13,392	43.08%	6,623	13.84%	33,407
Tallapoosa	12,539	64.35%	6,947	35.65%	5,592	28.70%	19,486
Tuscaloosa	47,602	57.56%	35,098	42.44%	12,504	15.12%	82,700
Walker	20,660	70.10%	8,812	29.90%	11,848	60.20%	29,472
Washington	5,383	63.08%	3,150	36.92%	2,233	26.16%	8,533
Wilcox	1,784	29.14%	4,339	70.86%	2,555	-41.72%	6,123
Winston	7,970	77.28%	2,343	22.72%	5,627	54.56%	10,313
Totals	1,308,847	61.64%	814,525	38.36%	494,322	23.28%	2,123,372

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+[[File:Alabama InfoboxF.PNG|right]]
-{{Infobox election
-| election_name = United States presidential election in Alabama, 2016
-| country = Alabama
-| type = presidential
-| ongoing = no
-| previous_election = United States presidential election in Alabama, 2012
-| previous_year = 2012
-| next_election = United States presidential election in Alabama, 2020
-| next_year = 2020
-| election_date = November 8, 2016
-| image1 = [[File:Portrait of US federal judge William H. Pryor, Jr.jpg|x200px]]
-| nominee1 = '''William H. Pryor Jr.'''
-| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
-| home_state1 = [[Alabama]]
-| running_mate1 = '''[[Paul Ryan]]'''
-| electoral_vote1 = '''9'''
-| popular_vote1 = '''1,308,847'''
-| percentage1 = '''61.64%'''
-| image2 = [[File:Tom Schieffer.jpg|x200px]]
-| nominee2 = Henry T. Ferguson
-| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
-| home_state2 = [[Texas]]
-| running_mate2 = [[Amy Klobuchar]]
-| electoral_vote2 = 0
-| popular_vote2 = 814,525
-| percentage2 = 38.36%
-| map_image = File:County Maps, 2016 Election (Blank) 01.png
-| map_size = 150px
-| map_caption = County Results
-{{col-start}}
-{{col-2}}
-'''Pryor'''
-{{legend|#e27f90|50-60%}}
-{{legend|#cc2f4a|60-70%}}
-{{legend|#d40000|70-80%}}
-{{legend|#aa0000|80-90%}}
-{{col-2}}
-'''Ferguson'''
-{{legend|#86b6f2|50-60%}}
-{{legend|#4389e3|60-70%}}
-{{legend|#1666cb|70-80%}}
-{{legend|#0645b4|80-90%}}
-{{col-end}}
-| title = President
-| before_election = Henry T. Ferguson
-| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
-| after_election = Henry T. Ferguson
-| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
-}}
 The '''2016 United States presidential election in Alabama''' was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the [[United States presidential election, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)|2016 General Election]], in which all fifty states and the District of Columbia participated. Alabama voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama, and running mate Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, against Democratic Party nominee, incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson and his running mate, Vice-President Amy Klobuchar.