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New Johannson Scenario, Election Infobox.PNG

The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The popular incumbent President, Edward H. Johannson, successfully ran for re-election. Johannson and his running mate, Vice-President Neel Kashkari, defeated the Democratic ticket of Georgia Governor John C. Dickenson and his running mate, Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster.

Johannson, who had previously served as the Governor of Minnesota prior to his elevation to the Presidency, had carried out a domestic policy agenda known as the Contract with America, aiming to revamp the nation's infrastructure, expand the nation's domestic energy production, reform the tax code, and encourage economic growth, in addition to targeting red tape, overhauling the nation's immigration system, and enhancing civil rights protections. This policy agenda enjoyed broad support with much of the national electorate. Dickenson on his part, proved to be an ineffective opponent, unable to formulate a coherent response to the Republican policies, and his campaign was marred by a series of controversies and gaffes, undermining his credibility.

As the country enjoyed peace-Johannson had ended the Iraq War-and experienced widespread economic growth, few doubted that the President would be easily re-elected. The successful resolution of two international crises-the Syrian anthrax attacks and the Persian Gulf Affair-in the weeks before the election, further bolstered Johannson's popularity and gave voters the confidence to send him back to office. Johannson led by wide margins in all public opinion polls conducted during the campaign.

Ultimately, on Election Day, Johannson won in a landslide, carrying 44 states and the District of Columbia. Obtaining more than 61 percent of the popular vote, Johannson also helped to bring in many new Republican Congressmen and Senators, giving the Party a supermajority in both Houses of Congress. Dickenson won only his home state of Georgia and five other typically Democratic states in the Deep South-Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. During Johannson's second term, he would push through additional elements of his Contract with America agenda, such as federal education aid reform, drug policy reform, technology and job training programs, and Medicaid expansion, a path made easier by the enlarged Republican majorities.

Nominations[]

Republican Party[]

Primaries[]

With an incumbent and popular President running for reelection against token opposition, the race for the Republican nomination was largely uneventful. On April 3, 2016, Johannson officially clinched the number of delegates needed to be nominated at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio. He accepted the nomination on July 21, 2016, and retained Vice President Neel Kashkari as his running mate. During his convention and throughout the campaign, Johannson focused on three themes: on keeping America at peace abroad and on strong terms with its allies, on the successes of the Contract with America, and on the thriving economy, with the booming job market and strong economic growth.

Nominees[]

New Johannson Scenario, Republican Candidates Box.PNG

Democratic Party[]

Primaries[]

Governor John C. Dickenson of Georgia, who had narrowly lost the Democratic nomination in 2012 to Senator Mark Warner of Virginia (who lost the general election to Johannson that year), and had also previously served as Secretary of Defense in the Nunn Administration and in the U.S. House, became the first Democrat in the field to formally launch a major candidacy for the presidency with an announcement on April 12, 2015. While nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Dickenson was a frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, he faced a strong challenge from populist former Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana, who became the second major candidate following his announcement on April 30, 2015. By September 2015, polls indicated that the gap was narrowing between Dickenson and Schweitzer. By that point, three other candidates had entered the race: former Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado on May 30, 2015, Governor Brad Hutto of South Carolina on July 2, 2015, and former Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico on September 6, 2015.

On October 20, 2015, Hutto announced his withdrawal from the primaries and endorsed Dickenson. On October 23, Salazar also withdrew, endorsing Schweitzer, and narrowing the field to Dickenson, Schweitzer, and Richardson. On February 1, 2016, Dickenson won the Iowa caucuses over Schweitzer by an narrow margin of 0.2%. After winning no delegates in Iowa, Richardson withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Schweitzer bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary by a comfortable margin. Dickenson won both of the remaining two February contests, obtaining 53% of the vote in the Nevada caucuses and a landslide in the South Carolina primary, with 73% of the vote. On March 1, 11 states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries. Dickenson won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Virginia, while Schweitzer won Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont.

The following weekend, Schweitzer won victories in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine with 15-30 point margins, while Dickenson won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, Schweitzer won an upset victory in the Michigan primary, while Dickenson won 83% of the vote in Mississippi. On March 15, the second "Super Tuesday", Dickenson won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, Schweitzer won caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Dickenson won the Arizona primary. On April 19, Dickenson won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the third "Super Tuesday", he won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, while Schweitzer won in Rhode Island. Over the course of May, Schweitzer accomplished another surprise win in the Indiana primary and also won in West Virginia and Oregon, while Dickenson won the Guam caucus and the Kentucky primary.

On June 4 and 5, Dickenson won two victories in the Virgin Islands caucus and Puerto Rico primary. On June 6, Dickenson reached the number of required delegates necessary to win the Democratic presidential nomination. The following day, he secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning primaries in California, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, while Schweitzer only won in Montana and North Dakota. Dickenson also won the final primary in the District of Columbia on June 14. Two days later, Schweitzer dropped out of the race and formally endorsed Dickenson. The two later appeared together at a rally in Kentucky on July 15.

Nominees[]

New Johannson Scenario, Democratic Candidates Box.PNG

Withdrawn candidates[]

  • Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana (withdrew on June 16, 2016; endorsed Dickenson)
  • Ken Salazar, former Senator from Colorado (withdrew on October 23, 2015; endorsed first Schweitzer, then Dickenson)
  • Brad Hutto, Governor of South Carolina (withdrew on October 20, 2015; endorsed Dickenson)
  • Bill Richardson, former Governor of New Mexico (withdrew on February 1, 2016; declined to endorse a candidate, then endorsed Dickenson)

Other candidates[]

Libertarian Party candidate R. Lee Wrights received 177,146 popular votes (0.13%). Wrights, who had previously served as Vice-Chair of the Libertarian Party, had run for the Party's nomination in 2012, but had lost narrowly to Sam Sloan. He had also run for Governor of Texas in 2014. His share of the popular vote was a substantial drop from the 2.55% Sloan had received in 2012.

Jill Stein of the Green Party took 135,226 popular votes (0.09%), while Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle came in fifth with 33,670 popular votes (0.03%). Write-ins and all other candidates (independents and minor third parties), including Reform Party nominee Rocky De La Fuente, received the remaining 13,670 popular votes (0.01%).

General election[]

Campaign[]

Although Dickenson was able to consolidate the support of the Democratic establishment behind him, the bruising primary battle with Schweitzer had nevertheless left him wounded for the general election. The Governor of Georgia campaigned as vigorously as he could, but he was unable to present an effective alternative to the incumbent Administration, nor was he able to match the superior campaign infrastructure and outreach of the Johannson campaign. Johannson, who presided over a period of economic prosperity at home and peace abroad, vigorously hit upon his accomplishments, reminding Americans of the perilous domestic situation with which the country had been confronted upon his election in 2012, and the steps which he had taken to address that situation. Specifically, he was able to highlight the central elements of his Contract with America, chief among which were infrastructure investment, education reform, and tax reform, policy items that enjoyed widespread support among the American populace. Dickenson attempted to argue that the President had not gone far enough in addressing the issues with these areas of concern, an argument that was not bought by many voters.

Dickenson was also hurt by a series of scandals and gaffes that rocked his campaign. Notorious for his off the cuff speaking style, the Governor made comments that alienated certain segments of the voting electorate. He referred to the children of Hispanic immigrants from Latin America as "wetbacks", suggested that women "do better in the home than they do in the public" (in response to a inquiry about his family life), and made a series of errors about the locations of American personnel and allies in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. He also demonstrated unfamiliarity with aspects of monetary, fiscal, and tax policy. Johannson highlighted these comments in a series of television ads, and on the campaign trail, Vice-President Kaskhari attacked Dickenson for some of his more misguided remarks.

Moreover, two foreign policy crises in the weeks immediately preceding the election helped to bolster Johannson's popularity and increased support for him among the electorate. The first of these, the Syrian anthrax attacks, resulted in condemnation by the international community and the application of sanctions against the Assad regime, efforts that were led by President Johannson. The second, the Persian Gulf Affair, saw Johannson successfully applying diplomatic pressure on Iran to withdraw its naval vessels from the Persian Gulf, preventing a armed confrontation between that country and Saudi Arabia.

Results[]

The total vote for 2016 was 136,669,276, an increase of 7,583,866 from 2012. This was the highest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election in the United States up to this time, exceeding the previous high of 131,313,820 from 2008.

Election results by county.

  Edward Johannson
  John Dickenson

Roughly three-quarters of the counties (2,371) were carried by the Republicans. The Democrats carried only 773 counties, the smallest total for the Party since the split between the Northern and Southern Democrats in the 1860 presidential election. Outside of the antebellum slave states and Oklahoma, the Republican dominance was nearly total. Not a single county was carried by the Democrats in the Northeast, the first time ever that this occurred. In the Midwest, there were only eight Democratic counties [1], and throughout the West, there were only nine Democratic counties [2]. In 30 states, the Dickenson-Koster ticket failed to carry a single county [3]. Within the South, Johannson won a majority (817) of the 1,537 counties.

The distribution of the county vote accurately reflects the overwhelming character of the majority vote. Johannson received 61.05 percent of the total vote, the largest percentage won by a presidential candidate of any party since the popular vote first became widespread in 1824. He won the election by more than 30.5 million popular votes. No earlier President had won by so large a margin. His popular vote margin of 22.36% was the largest recorded since Franklin D. Roosevelt's landslide reelection in 1936. Dickenson won only the electoral votes of his home state of Georgia and of five other states in the solidly Democratic Deep South-Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote
Running mate
Count Percentage Vice-presidential candidate Home state Electoral vote
Edward Henry Johannson Republican Minnesota 83,436,593 61.05% 702 Neel Kashkari California 702
John Christopher Dickenson Democratic Georgia 52,872,971 38.69% 76 Chris Koster Missouri 76
R. Lee Wrights Libertarian Texas 177,146 0.13% 0 RJ Harris Oklahoma 0
Jill Stein Green Massachusetts 135,226 0.09% 0 Ajamu Baraka Illinois 0
Darrell Castle Constitution Tennessee 33,670 0.03% 0 Scott Bradley Utah 0
Other 13,670 0.01% Other
Total 136,669,276 100% 778 778
Needed to win 390 390
61.05% 38.69% 0.13% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01%
Johannson Dickenson Wrights Stein Castle Others
Popular vote
Johannson
  
61.05%
Dickenson
  
38.69%
Others
  
0.26%
702 76
Johannson Dickenson
Electoral vote—President
Johannson
  
90.23%
Dickenson
  
9.77%
Electoral vote—Vice President
Kashkari
  
90.23%
Koster
  
9.77%

Geography of results[]

United States presidential election results by state, 2016 (New Johannson Scenario).png

Cartographic gallery[]

Results by state[]

States/districts won by Johannson/Kashkari
States/districts won by Dickenson/Koster
Edward Henry Johannson
Republican
John Christopher Dickenson
Democratic
Margin State Total
State electoral
votes
# % electoral
votes
# % electoral
votes
# % #
Alabama 12 1,029,623 48.49 - 1,089,927 51.33 12 -60,304 -2.84 2,123,372 AL
Alaska 4 185,971 58.37 4 132,637 41.63 - 53,334 16.74 318,608 AK
Arizona 16 1,481,371 57.57 16 1,086,648 42.23 - 394,723 15.34 2,573,165 AZ
Arkansas 8 463,334 40.98 - 661,308 58.49 8 -197,974 -17.51 1,130,635 AR
California 84 9,407,912 66.33 84 4,759,732 33.56 - 4,648,180 32.77 14,181,595 CA
Colorado 13 1,799,376 64.72 13 943,616 33.94 - 855,760 30.78 2,780,247 CO
Connecticut 10 1,048,801 63.76 10 594,470 36.14 - 454,331 27.62 1,644,920 CT
Delaware 4 288,612 65.03 4 153,560 34.60 - 135,052 30.43 443,814 DE
D.C. 3 182,559 58.65 3 128,709 41.35 - 53,850 17.30 311,268 DC
Florida 43 5,450,186 57.85 43 3,969,853 42.15 - 1,480,333 15.70 9,420,039 FL
Georgia 23 1,784,148 43.36 - 2,327,292 56.56 23 -543,144 -13.20 4,114,732 GA
Hawaii 5 236,344 55.10 5 192,593 44.90 - 43,751 10.20 428,937 HI
Idaho 5 452,807 65.60 5 237,448 34.40 - 215,359 31.20 690,255 ID
Illinois 30 3,754,249 67.81 30 1,782,175 32.19 - 1,972,074 35.62 5,536,424 IL
Indiana 16 1,632,223 59.68 16 1,082,770 39.59 - 549,453 20.09 2,734,958 IN
Iowa 9 1,110,473 70.91 9 452,426 28.89 - 658,047 42.02 1,566,031 IA
Kansas 8 766,900 64.75 8 417,502 35.25 - 349,398 29.50 1,184,402 KS
Kentucky 12 1,142,175 59.36 12 778,896 40.48 - 363,279 18.88 1,924,149 KY
Louisiana 12 955,268 47.08 - 1,073,764 52.92 12 -118,496 -5.84 2,029,032 LA
Maine 5 538,732 72.03 5 208,746 27.91 - 329,986 44.12 747,927 ME
Maryland 15 1,532,855 55.11 15 1,248,591 44.89 - 284,264 10.22 2,781,446 MD
Massachusetts 16 2,279,319 68.55 16 1,033,424 31.08 - 1,245,895 37.47 3,325,046 MA
Michigan 24 3,491,959 72.76 24 1,297,726 27.04 - 2,194,233 45.72 4,799,284 MI
Minnesota 14 2,178,573 73.98 14 759,173 25.78 - 1,419,400 48.20 2,944,813 MN
Mississippi 9 478,422 39.56 - 730,935 60.44 9 -252,513 -20.88 1,209,357 MS
Missouri 15 1,532,375 54.56 15 1,276,230 45.44 - 256,145 9.12 2,808,605 MO
Montana 4 303,906 61.13 4 190,855 38.39 - 113,051 22.74 497,147 MT
Nebraska 6 533,467 63.19 6 310,760 36.81 - 222,707 26.38 844,227 NE
Nevada 8 641,244 56.98 8 484,141 43.02 - 157,103 13.96 1,125,385 NV
New Hampshire 5 492,575 66.18 5 251,721 33.82 - 240,854 32.29 744,296 NH
New Jersey 21 2,620,792 67.65 21 1,217,225 31.42 - 1,403,567 36.23 3,874,046 NJ
New Mexico 7 471,088 59.01 7 326,113 40.85 - 144,975 18.16 798,319 NM
New York 44 4,984,970 64.56 44 2,726,445 35.31 - 2,258,525 29.25 7,721,453 NY
North Carolina 23 2,605,015 54.94 23 2,136,549 45.06 - 468,466 9.88 4,741,564 NC
North Dakota 4 258,683 75.12 4 85,160 24.73 - 191,912 50.39 344,360 ND
Ohio 27 3,566,670 64.89 27 1,929,817 35.11 - 1,636,853 29.78 5,496,487 OH
Oklahoma 10 801,034 55.13 10 651,958 44.87 - 149,076 10.26 1,452,992 OK
Oregon 10 1,283,657 64.14 10 711,275 35.54 - 572,382 28.60 2,001,336 OR
Pennsylvania 30 4,054,418 65.76 30 2,087,631 33.86 - 1,966,787 31.90 6,165,478 PA
Rhode Island 4 296,913 63.97 4 167,231 36.03 - 129,682 27.94 464,144 RI
South Carolina 12 1,036,372 49.28 - 1,066,655 50.72 12 -30,283 -1.44 2,103,027 SC
South Dakota 4 224,794 60.74 4 145,299 39.26 - 79,495 21.48 370,093 SD
Tennessee 16 1,286,367 51.29 16 1,208,618 48.19 - 77,749 3.10 2,508,027 TN
Texas 57 4,809,588 53.62 57 4,098,039 45.69 - 711,549 7.93 8,969,226 TX
Utah 8 632,809 55.93 8 498,621 44.07 - 134,188 11.86 1,131,430 UT
Vermont 3 246,445 78.22 3 62,509 19.84 - 183,936 58.38 315,067 VT
Virginia 20 2,148,115 53.91 20 1,825,359 45.81 - 322,756 8.10 3,984,631 VA
Washington 17 2,224,393 67.06 17 1,070,734 32.28 - 1,153,659 34.78 3,317,019 WA
West Virginia 6 417,437 58.43 6 296,986 41.57 - 120,451 16.86 714,423 WV
Wisconsin 14 2,116,043 71.10 14 823,501 27.67 - 1,292,542 43.43 2,976,150 WI
Wyoming 3 175,231 68.49 3 80,618 31.51 - 94,613 36.98 255,849 WY
TOTALS: 778 83,436,593 61.05 702 52,872,971 38.69 76 30,563,622 22.36 136,669,276 US

Close states[]

Margin of victory less than 5% (40 electoral votes):

  1. South Carolina, 1.44%
  2. Alabama, 2.84%
  3. Tennessee, 3.10%

Margin of victory over 5%, but less than 10% (127 electoral votes):

  1. Louisiana, 5.84%
  2. Texas, 7.93%
  3. Virginia, 8.10%
  4. Missouri, 9.12%
  5. North Carolina, 9.88%

Election 2016 Statistics[]

States with the Smallest Margin of Victory:

State EV Total Vote % Margin Margin Johannson Dickenson
South Carolina 12 2,103,027 1.44% 30,283 49.28% 50.72%
Alabama 12 2,173,372 2.84% 60,304 48.49% 51.33%
Tennessee 16 2,508,027 3.10% 77,749 51.29% 48.19%
Louisiana 12 2,029,032 5.84% 118,496 47.08% 52.92%
Texas 57 8,969,226 7.93% 711,549 53.62% 45.69%
Virginia 20 3,984,631 8.10% 322,756 53.91% 45.81%
Missouri 15 2,808,605 9.12% 256,145 54.56% 45.44%
North Carolina 23 4,741,564 9.88% 468,466 54.94% 45.06%
Hawaii 5 428,937 10.20% 43,751 55.10% 44.90%
Maryland 15 2,781,446 10.22% 284,264 55.11% 44.89%
Oklahoma 10 1,452,992 10.26% 149,076 55.13% 44.87%

States with the Largest Margin of Victory:

State EV Total Vote % Margin Margin Johannson Dickenson
Vermont 3 315,067 58.38% 183,936 78.22% 19.84%
North Dakota 4 344,360 50.39% 191,912 75.12% 24.73%
Minnesota 14 2,944,813 48.20% 1,419,400 73.98% 25.78%
Michigan 24 4,799,284 45.72% 2,194,233 72.76% 27.04%
Maine 5 747,927 44.12% 329,986 72.03% 27.91%
Wisconsin 14 2,976,150 43.43% 1,292,542 71.10% 27.67%
Iowa 9 1,566,031 42.02% 658,047 70.91% 28.89%
Massachusetts 16 3,325,046 37.47% 1,345,895 68.55% 31.08%
Wyoming 3 255,849 36.98% 94,613 68.49% 31.51%
New Jersey 21 3,874,046 36.23% 1,388,071 67.65% 31.42%

States with Highest Percent of Vote:

Johannson Percentage Dickenson Percentage
Vermont 78.22% Mississippi 60.44%
North Dakota 75.12% Arkansas 58.49%
Minnesota 73.98% Georgia 56.56%
Michigan 72.76% Louisiana 52.92%
Maine 72.03% Alabama 51.33%

States with Lowest Percent of Vote:

Johannson Percentage Dickenson Percentage
Mississippi 39.56% Vermont 19.84%
Arkansas 40.98% North Dakota 24.73%
Georgia 43.36% Minnesota 25.78%
Louisiana 47.08% Michigan 27.04%
Alabama 48.49% Wisconsin 27.67%

State Ranks:

Rank Johannson Dickenson
1 45 6
2 6 45

County Ranks:

Rank Johannson Dickenson
1 2,371 773
2 773 2,371

Counties with Highest Percent of Vote:

Johannson Percentage Dickenson Percentage
Jackson, KY 96.52% Taliferro, GA 90.20%
Keweenaw, MI 94.55% Peach, GA 85.56%
Leslie, KY 94.45% Tippah, MS 84.92%
Johnson, TN 93.97% Cherokee, AL 82.46%
Mercer, ND 93.33% Benton, MS 81.68%

Voter demographics[]

2016 Presidential vote by demographic subgroup (Edison Exit Polling)
Demographic subgroup Johannson Dickenson % of
total vote
Total vote 61 39 100
Party
Republicans 98 2 37
Democrats 14 86 33
Independents 65 35 31
Gender
Men 58 42 47
Women 64 36 53
Marital status
Married 64 36 59
Unmarried 57 43 41
Gender by marital status
Married men 60 40 29
Married women 68 32 30
Non-married men 51 49 19
Non-married women 59 41 23
Race/ethnicity
White 63 37 74
Black 53 47 12
Asian 58 42 3
Other 59 41 2
Hispanic (of any race) 57 43 9
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 62 38 34
White women 69 31 37
Black men 50 50 5
Black women 55 45 7
Latino men (of any race) 53 47 4
Latino women (of any race) 60 40 5
All other races 58 42 5
Religion
Protestant 70 30 27
Catholic 62 38 23
Mormon 57 43 1
Other Christian 59 41 24
Jewish 55 45 3
Other religion 53 47 7
None 52 48 15
Age
Under 30 years old 60 40 19
30-49 years old 58 42 36
50 and older 64 36 45
Sexual orientation
LGBT 55 45 5
Heterosexual 61 39 95
First time voter
First time voter 63 37 10
Everyone else 61 39 90
Education
Non-college graduates 58 42 50
College graduates 64 36 50
Family income
Under $30,000 51 49 17
$30,000-49,999 57 43 19
$50,000-99,999 62 38 31
$100,000-199,999 63 37 24
$200,000-249,999 72 28 4
Over $250,000 72 28 6
Union households
Union 57 43 18
Non-union 62 38 82
Military service
Veterans 75 25 13
Non-veterans 61 39 87
Region
Northeast 66 34 19
Midwest 67 33 23
South 53 47 37
West 64 36 21
Community size
Cities (population 50,000 and above) 61 39 34
Suburbs 62 38 49
Rural areas 59 41 17

Notes[]

[1] These were Adams, Brown, Dubois (the best Democratic county outside of the South), Franklin, Jackson, Knox, Perry, and Wells Counties, Indiana.

[2] These were Bethel Census Area, Alaska, Haines Borough, Alaska, Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, Alaska, Petersburg Census Area, Alaska, Sitka Borough, Alaska, Skagway Borough, Alaska, Graham County, Arizona, Greenlee County, Arizona, and De Baca County, New Mexico.

[3] Dickenson failed to carry a single county in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

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