United States presidential election, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)

The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. Incumbent Democratic President Henry T. Ferguson defeated William H. Pryor Jr., the Republican nominee. With 61.1% of the popular vote, Ferguson won the largest share of the popular vote of any candidate since the largely uncontested 1820 election.

Ferguson took office in January 2013, after defeating his Republican predecessor, Mitt Romney, in the 2012 election. He ran unopposed for the Democratic presidential nomination, and once again tapped sitting Vice President Amy Klobuchar as his running mate. Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama, one of the most conservative Republicans in the United States Senate, defeated moderate former Governor Jon M. Huntsman of Utah and Governor John Kasich of Ohio for the Republican presidential nomination.

Ferguson, who had successfully navigated the country through economic recovery and had overseen the resolution of American conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, enjoyed high approval ratings by the time of the election. Ferguson also advocated a series of programs known as the New Hope, addressing immigration, infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Pryor, on his part, called for privatizing Social Security and opposed the New Hope. Democrats successfully portrayed Pryor as a dangerous extremist, most famously in the "Pryor's America" television advertisement. The Republican Party was divided between its moderate and conservative factions, with Huntsman and other moderate party leaders refusing to campaign for Pryor. Ferguson led by wide margins in all public opinion polls throughout the campaign.

Ferguson carried 46 states and the District of Columbia. Pryor won his home state and three other adjacent states in the Deep South – Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina, which have been Republican strongholds in recent decades. Ferguson's landslide victory coincided with the defeat of many conservative Republican Congressmen. The subsequent 115th Congress would pass major legislation such as the American Dream and Promise Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. At 76, Ferguson was the oldest person ever to be nominated by a major party and elected as President.

Nominations

Democratic Party

Primaries

With the advantage of incumbency, Henry Ferguson's path to renomination by the Democratic Party was uneventful. The nomination process consisted of primaries and caucuses, held by the 50 states, as well as Guam, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Democrats Abroad. Additionally, high−ranking party members known as superdelegates each received one vote in the convention. Running unopposed everywhere, President Ferguson cemented his status as the Democratic presumptive nominee on April 5, 2016, by securing the minimum number of pledged delegates needed to win the nomination.

Nominees

Republican Party

Primaries

The Republican Party's nomination process in 2016 was dominated by a civil war between its moderate and conservative factions. Former Vice−President John E. Sununu, who had been on the losing Republican presidential ticket in 2012, decided not to run. Sununu, a moderate with ties to both wings of the GOP, would have been able to unite the party's factions. In his absence, other candidates emerged. Alabama Senator William H. Pryor, Jr., a political firebrand who had become a leader of the Party's conservative faction, emerged as that wing's primary candidate for the Presidency. He was opposed for the Republican nomination by former Governor Jon M. Huntsman of Utah, who had long been a leader of the Party's moderate faction.

Governor John Kasich of Ohio, another prominent member of the Party's moderate faction, also ran for the nomination, as did South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, former New York Governor George Pataki, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and physician Ben Carson, the latter two of whom were also conservatives.

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Gilmore, Pataki, and Santorum withdrew due to low polling numbers. The nomination was, from the beginning, primarily a contest between Pryor and Huntsman. Pryor, who had been the favorite in Iowa polls prior to the caucuses, posted a strong performance there, capturing most of the delegates. Huntsman subsequently won the New Hampshire primary, in the aftermath of which Graham dropped out. Nevertheless, the momentum lay with Pryor. On March 1, 2016, the first of the "Super Tuesday" primaries were held, with Huntsman prevailing only in Minnesota and Alaska, and Pryor sweeping the remaining nine states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later. On March 15, 2016, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won only the contest in his home state of Ohio, and Pryor won five primaries, including Florida. Fiorina dropped out at this stage.

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Pryor, Huntsman, and Kasich. Huntsman won the contests in his home state of Utah, and in other Western states including the Dakotas, Idaho, Wyoming, and Arizona. Ultimately, however, he was unable to overcome the Pryor margins in states such as Wisconsin and Indiana, and on May 3, 2016, formally suspended his campaign. Kasich also ended his bid at that point in time. Shortly afterwards, Pryor was proclaimed to be the presumptive nominee by the chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), Reince Priebus.

Pryor subsequently selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who had gained notice as a deficit hawk in the House, as his running mate. Ryan's selection surprised many, as it was not thought to bring any discernible advantages to the ticket. Nevertheless, he won the Republican vice presidential nomination by acclamation on June 19 at the 2016 Republican National Convention, held in Cleveland, Ohio.

Nominees

Withdrawn candidates

• Jon Huntsman, Governor of Utah (withdrew on May 3, 2016; refused to endorse Pryor)
• John Kasich, Governor of Ohio (withdrew on May 3, 2016; refused to endorse Pryor)
• Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett−Packard (withdrew on March 15, 2016; declined to endorse a candidate)
• Ben Carson, surgeon (withdrew on March 5, 2016; declined to endorse a candidate, then endorsed Pryor)
• Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina (withdrew on February 17, 2016; endorsed Pryor)
• George Pataki, former Governor of New York (withdrew on December 29, 2015; declined to endorse a candidate)
• Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (withdrew on December 21, 2015; endorsed Pryor)
• Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania (withdrew on November 17, 2015; endorsed Pryor)

Other candidates

Libertarian Party candidate Sam Sloan received 138,546 popular votes (0.10%). Sloan, a chess player and publisher, had previously ran for the Libertarian presidential nomination in 2012, but lost to former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. He had also run for Governor of New York, as an independent, in 2014. His share of the popular vote was a substantial drop from the 0.65% Johnson had received in 2012.

Jill Stein of the Green Party took 55,825 popular votes (0.04%), while Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle came in fifth with 29,190 popular votes (0.02%). Write−ins and all other candidates (independents and minor third parties) received the remaining 2,891 popular votes (0.01%). In total, third−party candidates garnered just 0.17% of the national popular vote. This was the smallest the third−party vote had been in any presidential election since 1868. No third−party candidates were on the ballot in twenty states and the District of Columbia.

Candidates gallery

General election

Campaign

Pryor was unable to unite the Party's conservative and moderate factions for the general election. The 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, was one of the most contentious and most divisive conventions for that party in recent times, matching that of the 1964 Republican National Convention. A final attempt was mounted by supporters of Huntsman to produce a revolt on the convention floor, aimed at denying Pryor the requisite number of delegates needed to win the nomination. Members of the Colorado and Utah delegations were instrumental to this effort, which was nevertheless suppressed by Priebus and other leading Republican officials. Huntsman himself gave a speech at the Convention, but did not explicitly endorse Pryor and refused to do so when pressed. Kasich refused to attend the Convention at all, and openly expressed his doubts about the viability of the Pryor campaign.

Pryor himself was unable to overcome the difficulties this generated, nor was he able to present an attractive and compelling alternative to the Ferguson campaign. Pryor's controversial comments on aspects of social policy, such as homosexuality, attracted considerable attention, and were given additional light by the Democrats. Moreover, his strong opposition to immigration, healthcare, and education reform was at odds with the opinions of the majority of the American populace. This was further magnified by the fact that his running mate, Ryan, was one of the leading advocates for privatizing Social Security and cutting back on Medicare and Medicaid entitlements, policies which Pryor supported. Ferguson, who presented himself as a tireless advocate for the working class, and advanced a series of policy proposals known as the New Hope, criticized his Republican opponents for these stances.

Moreover, capitalizing on Pryor's remarks on social policy, and upon war – he called for a "carpet bombing campaign" against terrorist cells throughout the Middle East – Ferguson was able to paint Pryor as a dangerous extremist, suggesting that his administration would reverse the progress of recent years. This message was amplified through a series of television advertisements, most notably the "Pryor's America" ad, among the most famous such ads in American political history. Ferguson also vastly outspent Pryor and was represented well on the campaign trail by Vice−President Klobuchar.

Ferguson led Pryor in all public opinion polls by wide margins throughout the entire campaign.

Results

Election results by county.

  Henry T. Ferguson

  William H. Pryor

The election was held on November 8, 2016. President Ferguson won in a landslide, carrying 46 states and the District of Columbia with 497 electoral votes, to Pryor's 4 states and one congressional district with 41 electoral votes. Ferguson won the greatest amount of electoral votes earned by any Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt had earned 523 votes in 1936. He carried 8 of Romney's 12 states from 2012 and held all 38 states which he had won that year. The amount of party switching was substantial. Idaho, Indiana, Utah, and Wyoming all went Democratic for the first time since 1964, when they had been carried by Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater. The pro−Ferguson shift in Idaho and Utah was particularly notable, as they had been among the best Republican states in the country in every election from 1976 to 2012; Pryor's perceived Anti−Mormonist views were believed to be the primary factor in their defection to the Democrats.

Results by congressional district.

Ferguson also became only the second Democrat since 1964, following Al Gore in 2004, to carry the historically Republican states of Kansas and Nebraska on the Great Plains. These states were motivated by concerns over Pryor's energy, agricultural, and environmental policies, which they viewed as a threat to their livelihoods. New England decisively rejected Pryor, as he became the first Republican presidential candidate in history to not win a single county in the region. Ferguson became the fifth presidential candidate to sweep New England's counties. In twelve states, Pryor failed to carry a single county;he carried a mere one county in a further three states;and just two counties in one other state. 687 counties switched from Romney to Ferguson, with Ferguson gaining at least one county in all but five states.

Five counties in three states voted Democratic for the first time in history, and 344 counties voted Democratic for the first time since Johnson or earlier. This included 12 counties in five states which had last voted Democratic in the nineteenth century. Edwards County, Illinois went Democratic for the first time since 1832, Boone County, Illinois went Democratic for the first time since 1844, and Johnson County, Illinois went Democratic for the first time since 1860. Ozark County, Missouri last voted Democratic in 1852 for Franklin Pierce prior to this election, while Gasconade County, Missouri had last done so for James Buchanan in 1856. Lewis County, Kentucky last went Democratic in 1876, and Wayne County, Pennsylvania had done so in 1892. Ferguson carried 86 counties which had last voted Democratic between 1968 and 1996. Moreover, he also carried 252 counties which had last voted Democratic for Al Gore in either 2000 or 2004. Pryor picked up only six counties in five states that had gone for Ferguson in 2012.

A panoramic view of the United States shows that Ferguson's most significant gains were recorded in central and southeastern Alaska, the rural areas of Upstate New York and western Kansas, and the Mormon Corridor (Southern Idaho and Utah), as well as in much of rural New England, especially Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Pryor's greatest gains were in the South, and came in his home state of Alabama and in rural Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, along with a handful of rural counties in Missouri and West Virginia.

Of the 3,143 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Ferguson won in 2,336 (74.30%) while Pryor carried 807 (25.70%).

Notably, every county in the nation was won with an absolute majority, making 2016 the first presidential election since 1868 in which no counties were carried with a plurality of the vote. 2016 was also only the second election in the 21st century (following 2008) in which every state was won with an absolute majority of the vote. Pryor carried fewer counties than any other Republican presidential nominee since Alf Landon in 1936.

Around 7% of those who voted for Romney in 2012 went for Ferguson in this election. Ferguson won a clear majority of the 2012 third−party vote. Of those who voted for Gary Johnson in 2012, 66% voted for Ferguson, 18% for Pryor, and 16% for Libertarian nominee Sloan. Of those who voted for Jill Stein in 2012, 74% voted for Ferguson and 26% for Stein (mounting her second presidential bid as the Green nominee). First time voters went for Ferguson by a greater than 2−1 margin.

The only Pryor bright spot was the Deep South, by 2016 the primary bastion of Republican support in the country. Pryor continued the Republican winning streaks in Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina which extended back to 1980, and he became only the second losing Republican in history, following Goldwater in 1964, to carry Georgia. Conversely, this made Ferguson the first ever Democrat elected to two terms to fail to win Georgia either time. Alabama, Pryor's home state, was his best state in the country, the only state where he received more than 60% of the popular vote, and one of only two states where he won a higher percentage than Romney had in 2012. Pryor's local roots, his staunch social conservatism, and his interventionist streak in foreign policy enabled him to retain the support of his native region.

Like New England and the Interior West, the "moderate" Upper South also rejected Pryor, as Florida and Virginia switched from Romney to Ferguson. Ferguson became the first Democrat to win a majority of the popular vote in Florida since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and the first to do so in Virginia since Johnson in 1964. The "loyalist" South, which had gone Democratic in both 2004 and 2012 also stood firm for Ferguson. The South was the only real battleground in 2016, with Ferguson winning 156−40 in the Electoral College and 55% to 45% in the popular vote. Outside the South, the electoral vote margin for Ferguson was 341 to 1. Nationally, he won 61% to 39%, a 6−point gain over his 2012 vote.

In the nation's 23 most populous counties (metropolitan America), Ferguson routed Pryor, amassing 16,326,323 votes to Pryor's 7,426,256 – a 69% to 31% sweep (third parties received 35,435). Ferguson's margin of victory in these counties was 8,900,067 votes, or 37.41%. All 23 counties voted for Ferguson, with Orange County, California (the most Republican of the large metropolitan counties), voting Democratic for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt carried it in 1936. In the remainder of the country (nonmetropolitan America), Ferguson outpolled Pryor by 67,110,270 votes to 45,579,939 (with third parties receiving 191,014) – winning by 59% to 40%.

His margin of victory in these counties was 21,510,331 votes, or 19.07%. The traditional urban−rural divide was consequently still present in the 2016 election, but the Ferguson landslide crossed the barrier effectively. In terms of voter change from 2012 to 2016, Ferguson gained slightly more in the nonmetropolitan counties (6.41%) than in the metropolitan counties (5.34%). The vote increase was significantly greater in the metro areas (12.64%) than in the nonmetro areas (4.55%).

5 of Ferguson's top 10 states were in New England, which had once been the bastion of Republicanism. Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Massachusetts were the three strongest Ferguson states. Michigan, which was one of the most Republican states in the country a century before, was Ferguson's ninth−best state. Vermont was there also, as were Connecticut, Maine, Illinois, New York, and West Virginia. West Virginia was the only Southern state to appear on the Democratic top 10. Six of Pryor's strongest states were in the South, two were in the Mountain West, and two were in the Great Plains.

Outside of the antebellum slave states and Oklahoma, only 20 counties out of 1,606 gave Pryor a higher vote percentage than they had given Romney in 2012. Only one county in these states switched from Ferguson to Pryor – Martin County, Indiana. The pro−Pryor counties were concentrated in Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota. In the antebellum slave states and Oklahoma, 149 counties out of 1,537 gave Pryor a higher vote percentage than Romney, and nearly a third of these – 46 – were concentrated in Pryor's home state of Alabama.

There were also 97 counties in 19 states (particularly in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina) that voted for Gore in 2004 and Pryor in 2016. These were mainly rural counties. Many of these counties, such as Colbert County, Alabama, had been historically Democratic counties that trended heavily Republican after 2004. Ferguson won all 26 counties which had voted for Donald Trump in 2000. Moreover, 1,995 counties that had gone for Romney in 2008 went for Ferguson in this election – a majority of the counties Romney had carried that year. Thus, 63% of the nation's counties voted for both the Republicans and Democrats at the presidential level in just eight years.

The 2016 election was a tale of two elections: the South versus the rest of the country. Pryor ran ahead of his national vote percentage (38.78%) in every former Confederate state except Ferguson's Texas. But Pryor was rejected almost everywhere else. He ran behind Romney in 99% of the counties in the North and West.

Following the abnormal turnout decline in 2012, the 2016 election witnessed a substantial rise in the total number of votes cast. The total vote – 136,669,237 – represented an increase of 7,583,831, or 5.87%, over 2012. The most significant increases were recorded in California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Nevertheless, turnout did decline in five other states – Hawaii, Iowa, Mississippi, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Ferguson received more votes than any other presidential candidate in history, surpassing the record which had been established by Mitt Romney in 2008. He also won the widest margin of victory in terms of raw votes for a presidential candidate in history, surpassing Romney's 2008 record.

The Ferguson landslide defeated many conservative Republican congressmen, giving him a majority that could enact a more progressive agenda.

Presidential candidate	Party	Home state	Popular vote		Electoral vote	Running mate
			Count	Percentage		Vice-presidential candidate	Home state	Electoral vote
Henry Thomas Ferguson	Democratic	Texas	83,436,593	61.05%	497	Amy Jean Klobuchar	Minnesota	497
William Holcombe Pryor, Jr.	Republican	Alabama	53,006,195	38.78%	41	Paul Davis Ryan	Wisconsin	41
Samuel Howard Sloan	Libertarian	New York	138,546	0.10%	0	Richard Jason Satawk "R.J." Harris	Oklahoma	0
Dr. Jill Ellen Stein	Green	Massachusetts	55,825	0.04%	0	Ajamu Sibeko Baraka	Illinois	0
Darrell Lane Castle	Constitution	Tennessee	29,190	0.02%	0	Scott N. Bradley	Utah	0
Other			2,891	0.01%	—	Other		—
Total			136,669,237	100%	538			538
Needed to win					270			270

↓

61.05%	38.78%	0.10%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Ferguson	Pryor	Sloan	Stein	Castle	Others

Popular vote
Ferguson			61.05%
Pryor			38.78%
Others			0.17%

↓

497	41
Ferguson	Pryor

Electoral vote—President
Ferguson			92.38%
Pryor			7.62%

Electoral vote—Vice President
Klobuchar			92.38%
Ryan			7.62%

Geography of results

Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote

Cartographic gallery

Presidential election results by county

Results by state, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote

Results by district, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote

Results by state

States/districts won by Ferguson/Klobuchar
States/districts won by Pryor/Ryan
†	At−large results (For states that split electoral votes)

		Henry Ferguson Democratic			William Pryor Republican			Others			Margin		State Total
State	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#	%	#
Alabama	9	814,525	38.36	−	1,308,847	61.64	9	−	−	−	−494,322	−23.28	2,123,372	AL
Alaska	3	209,995	65.91	3	108,613	34.09	−	−	−	−	101,382	31.82	318,608	AK
Arizona	11	1,530,261	59.47	11	1,042,904	40.53	−	−	−	−	487,357	18.94	2,573,165	AZ
Arkansas	6	633,833	56.06	6	490,810	43.41	−	5,992	0.53	−	143,023	12.66	1,130,635	AR
California	55	9,173,908	64.69	55	4,993,340	35.21	−	14,347	0.10	−	4,180,568	29.48	14,181,595	CA
Colorado	9	1,703,457	61.27	9	1,061,776	38.19	−	15,014	0.54	−	641,681	23.08	2,780,247	CO
Connecticut	7	1,115,420	67.81	7	527,855	32.09	−	1,645	0.10	−	587,565	35.72	1,644,920	CT
Delaware	3	270,505	60.95	3	172,111	38.78	−	1,198	0.27	−	98,394	22.17	443,814	DE
D.C.	3	287,798	92.46	3	23,470	7.54	−	−	−	−	264,328	84.92	311,268	DC
Florida	29	4,818,350	51.15	29	4,601,689	48.85	−	−	−	−	216,661	2.30	9,420,039	FL
Georgia	16	1,887,428	45.87	−	2,226,893	54.12	16	411	0.01	−	−339,465	−8.25	4,114,732	GA
Hawaii	4	337,831	78.76	4	91,106	21.24	−	−	−	−	246,725	57.52	428,937	HI
Idaho	4	351,478	50.92	4	338,777	49.08	−	−	−	−	12,701	1.84	690,255	ID
Illinois	20	3,722,265	67.23	20	1,814,159	32.77	−	−	−	−	1,908,106	34.46	5,536,424	IL
Indiana	11	1,531,029	55.98	11	1,191,348	43.56	−	12,581	0.46	−	339,681	12.42	2,734,958	IN
Iowa	6	969,060	61.88	6	593,839	37.92	−	3,132	0.20	−	375,221	23.96	1,566,031	IA
Kansas	6	640,643	54.09	6	533,692	45.06	−	10,067	0.85	−	106,951	9.03	1,184,402	KS
Kentucky	8	1,231,648	64.01	8	685,959	35.65	−	6,542	0.34	−	545,689	28.36	1,924,149	KY
Louisiana	8	1,199,361	59.11	8	827,642	40.79	−	2,029	0.10		371,719	18.32	2,029,032	LA
Maine†	4	514,574	68.80	4	232,904	31.14	−	449	0.06	−	281,670	37.66	747,927	ME
Maryland	10	1,821,013	65.47	10	960,433	34.53	−	−	−	−	860,580	30.94	2,781,446	MD
Massachusetts	11	2,533,353	76.19	11	779,391	23.44	−	12,302	0.37	−	1,753,962	52.75	3,325,046	MA
Michigan	16	3,201,122	66.70	16	1,588,563	33.10	−	9,599	0.20	−	1,612,537	33.60	4,799,284	MI
Minnesota	10	1,877,881	63.76	10	1,060,284	36.00	−	6,648	0.24	−	817,597	27.76	2,944,813	MN
Mississippi	6	598,027	49.45	−	610,121	50.45	6	1,209	0.10	−	−12,094	−1.00	1,209,357	MS
Missouri	10	1,798,912	64.05	10	1,009,693	35.95	−	−	−	−	789,219	28.10	2,808,605	MO
Montana	3	293,068	58.95	3	201,693	40.57	−	2,386	0.48	−	91,375	18.38	497,147	MT
Nebraska†	5	441,148	52.61	4	403,079	47.39	1	−	−	−	38,069	5.22	844,227	NE
Nevada	6	659,251	58.58	6	466,134	41.42	−	−	−	−	193,117	17.16	1,125,385	NV
New Hampshire	4	475,531	63.89	4	268,765	36.11	−	−	−	−	206,766	27.78	744,296	NH
New Jersey	14	2,541,762	65.61	14	1,311,752	33.86	−	20,532	0.53	−	1,230,010	31.75	3,874,046	NJ
New Mexico	5	472,765	59.22	5	321,244	40.24	−	4,310	0.54	−	151,521	18.98	798,319	NM
New York	29	5,293,828	68.56	29	2,417,587	31.31	−	10,038	0.13	−	2,876,241	37.25	7,721,453	NY
North Carolina	15	2,662,388	56.15	15	2,079,176	43.85	−	−	−	−	583,212	12.30	4,741,564	NC
North Dakota	3	199,625	57.97	3	144,217	41.88	−	518	0.15	−	55,408	16.09	344,360	ND
Ohio	18	3,459,489	62.94	18	2,036,998	37.06	−	−	−	−	1,422,491	25.88	5,496,487	OH
Oklahoma	7	810,043	55.75	7	642,949	44.25	−	−	−	−	167,094	11.50	1,452,992	OK
Oregon	7	1,275,251	63.72	7	719,680	35.96	−	6,405	0.32	−	555,671	27.76	2,001,336	OR
Pennsylvania	20	4,002,628	64.92	20	2,139,421	34.70	−	23,429	0.38		1,863,207	30.22	6,165,478	PA
Rhode Island	4	375,353	80.87	4	88,791	19.13	−	−	−	−	286,562	61.74	464,144	RI
South Carolina	9	927,225	44.09	−	1,175,592	55.90	9	210	0.01	−	−248,367	−11.81	2,103,027	SC
South Dakota	3	205,809	55.61	3	164,284	44.39	−	−	−	−	41,525	11.22	370,093	SD
Tennessee	11	1,391,955	55.50	11	1,115,821	44.49	−	251	0.01	−	276,134	11.01	2,508,027	TN
Texas	38	5,679,314	63.32	38	3,272,871	36.49	−	17,041	0.19	−	2,406,443	26.83	8,969,226	TX
Utah	6	620,702	54.86	6	510,728	45.14	−	−	−	−	109,974	9.73	1,131,430	UT
Vermont	3	208,889	66.30	3	106,146	33.69	−	32	0.01	−	102,743	32.61	315,067	VT
Virginia	13	2,133,371	53.54	13	1,840,103	46.18	−	11,157	0.28	−	293,268	7.36	3,984,631	VA
Washington	12	2,055,542	61.97	12	1,239,561	37.37	−	21,916	0.66		815,981	24.60	3,317,019	WA
West Virginia	5	485,379	67.94	5	229,044	32.06	−	−	−	−	256,335	35.88	714,423	WV
Wisconsin	10	1,847,892	62.09	10	1,123,199	37.74	−	5,059	0.17	−	724,693	24.35	2,976,150	WI
Wyoming	3	144,708	56.56	3	111,141	43.44	−	−	−	−	33,567	13.12	255,849	WY
TOTALS:	538	83,436,593	61.05	497	53,006,195	38.78	41	226,449	0.17	−	30,430,398	22.27	136,669,237	US

Maine and Nebraska district results

^†Maine and Nebraska each allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each congressional district. The following table records the official presidential vote tallies for Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts.

District	EV	Ferguson	%	Pryor	%	Others	%	Margin	%	Total
Maine's 1st congressional district	1	285,452	72.05%	110,501	27.89%	257	0.06%	174,951	44.16%	396,210
Maine's 2nd congressional district	1	229,122	65.14%	122,403	34.80%	192	0.06%	106,719	30.34%	351,717
Nebraska's 1st congressional district	1	153,752	54.61%	127,810	45.39%	–	–	25,942	9.22%	281,562
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district	1	158,010	54.04%	134,361	45.96%	–	–	23,649	8.08%	292,371
Nebraska's 3rd congressional district	1	129,386	47.87%	140,908	52.13%	–	–	−11,522	−4.26%	270,294

Close states

Margin of victory less than 5% (39 electoral votes):

1. Mississippi 1.00% (12,094 votes)
2. Idaho 1.84% (12,701 votes)
3. Florida 2.30% (216,661 votes)

Margin of victory over 5%, but less than 10% (46 electoral votes):

1. Nebraska 5.22% (38,069 votes)
2. Virginia 7.36% (293,268 votes)
3. Georgia 8.25% (339,465 votes)
4. Kansas 9.03% (106,951 votes)
5. Utah 9.73% (109,974 votes)

Tipping point:

1. Texas 26.83% (2,406,443 votes)

Statistics

Counties with highest percent of vote (Democratic)

1. Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska 97.00%
2. Kalawao County, Hawaii 95.00%
3. Elliott County, Kentucky 94.13%
4. Shannon County, South Dakota 93.52%
5. Jefferson County, Mississippi 93.16%

Counties with highest percent of vote (Republican)

1. Dawson County, Georgia 84.89%
2. Banks County, Georgia 83.85%
3. Holmes County, Florida 83.50%
4. Forsyth County, Georgia 82.94%
5. Blount County, Alabama 82.63%

Ballot access

Presidential ticket	Party	Ballot access	Votes
Ferguson / Klobuchar	Democratic	50+DC	83,436,593
Pryor / Ryan	Republican	50+DC	53,006,195
Sloan / Harris	Libertarian	26	138,546
Stein / Baraka	Green	20	55,825
Castle / Bradley	Constitution	17	29,190

Voter demographics

The Presidential vote in social groups (percentages)
Demographic subgroup	Ferguson	Pryor	% of total vote
Total vote	61	39	100
Ideology
Liberals	97	3	26
Moderates	65	35	39
Conservatives	30	70	35
Party
Democrats	95	5	37
Republicans	20	80	33
Independents	65	35	31
Gender
Men	60	40	47
Women	62	38	53
Marital status
Married	56	44	59
Unmarried	69	31	41
Gender by marital status
Married men	54	46	29
Married women	58	42	30
Non−married men	66	34	19
Non−married women	71	29	23
Race/ethnicity
White	53	47	74
Black	95	5	12
Hispanic	77	23	9
Asian	76	24	3
Other	69	31	2
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men	51	49	34
White women	54	46	40
Black men	93	7	5
Black women	96	4	7
Latino men	75	25	4
Latino women	79	21	5
All other races	73	27	5
Religion
Protestant	51	49	27
Catholic	63	37	23
Mormon	53	47	1
Other Christian	56	44	24
Jewish	88	12	3
Other religion	71	29	7
None	75	25	15
Religious service attendance
Weekly or more	53	47	33
Monthly	59	41	16
A few times a year	61	39	29
Never	75	25	22
White evangelical or born−again Christian
White evangelical or born−again Christian	37	63	26
Everyone else	70	30	74
Age
18–24 years old	69	31	10
25–29 years old	66	34	9
30–39 years old	64	36	17
40–49 years old	59	41	19
50–64 years old	57	43	30
65 and older	61	39	15
Age by race
Whites 18–29 years old	59	41	12
Whites 30–44 years old	53	47	16
Whites 45–64 years old	50	50	33
Whites 65 and older	53	47	13
Blacks 18–29 years old	91	9	3
Blacks 30–44 years old	96	4	4
Blacks 45–64 years old	96	4	4
Blacks 65 and older	97	3	1
Latinos 18–29 years old	80	20	2
Latinos 30–44 years old	77	23	3
Latinos 45–64 years old	76	24	3
Latinos 65 and older	74	26	1
Others	73	27	5
Sexual orientation
LGBT	79	21	5
Heterosexual	60	40	95
First time voter
First time voter	69	31	10
Everyone else	60	40	90
Education
High school or less	67	33	18
Some college education	59	41	32
College graduate	57	43	32
Postgraduate education	67	33	18
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates	53	47	37
White no college degree	52	48	37
Non−white college graduates	82	18	13
Non−white no college degree	87	13	13
Education by race/ethnicity/sex
White women with college degrees	54	46	20
White men with college degrees	52	48	17
White women without college degrees	54	46	20
White men without college degrees	50	50	17
Non−whites	85	15	26
Family income
Under $30,000	66	34	17
$30,000–49,999	64	36	19
$50,000–99,999	59	41	31
$100,000–199,999	60	40	24
$200,000–249,999	61	39	4
Over $250,000	53	47	6
Union households
Union	73	27	18
Non−union	59	41	82
Military service
Veterans	54	46	13
Non−veterans	62	38	87
Issue regarded as most important
Foreign Policy	60	40	13
Immigration	45	55	13
Economy	65	35	52
Terrorism	55	45	18
Region
Northeast	68	32	18
Midwest	63	37	23
South	55	45	37
West	63	37	22
Community size
Cities (population 50,000 and above)	68	32	34
Suburbs	58	42	49
Rural areas	57	43	17

Source: Voter News Service exit poll, reported in The New York Times, November 13, 2016, 28.