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Ferguson 2012 Infobox

The 2012 United States presidential election was the 57th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Democratic Governor Henry T. Ferguson of Texas defeated incumbent Republican President Mitt Romney.

Romney's unpopularity encouraged an intra−party challenge by Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who had previously run for the Republican nomination in 2008 and had been the Libertarian Party's nominee in 1988. Romney defeated Paul in the majority of the Republican primaries, but Paul remained in the race until Romney was officially renominated at the 2012 Republican National Convention. The Democratic primaries were contested between Ferguson, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and several other candidates. All of Ferguson's opponents had dropped out by the end of the primaries, and the 2012 Democratic National Convention nominated a ticket consisting of Ferguson and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Ferguson campaigned for universal healthcare, an increase in taxes on the wealthy, and infrastructure reform. His campaign was aided by Republican dissatisfaction with Romney, the Iraq War, and a worsening economy at home marked by high rates of unemployment and inflation. Romney attacked Ferguson as a reckless fiscal liberal and warned that his programs would exacerbate the national deficit.

Ferguson won the election by a landslide, taking a large majority of the electoral vote and 54.8% of the popular vote. In the simultaneous Congressional elections, Democrats expanded their majority in the U.S. House, which they had gained in the 2010 midterms, and gained control of the U.S. Senate. Romney won 44.3% of the vote, but carried just twelve states. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, the former Governor of New Mexico, managed to garner 0.65% of the popular vote, a noticeable improvement upon the 0.32% Bob Barr had received in 2008. Ferguson, then 72, was the oldest person to ever be elected to a first term.

Results[]

2012 Presidential Election Results by County (Tilden Map)

Election results by county.

  Henry T. Ferguson
  Mitt Romney

On November 6, Henry Ferguson won the election to serve as the 45th President of the United States by a wide margin in the Electoral College, as he carried 38 states and the District of Columbia with 421 electoral votes, while Romney won 12 states with 117 electoral votes. Ferguson's popular vote win was 54.8% to 44.3%. Ferguson won 35 of Romney's 47 states from the 2008 election, including a victory in North Dakota, which had been Romney's seventh−best state in 2008, as well as the 3 Kucinich states. He swept all 9 states in the Northeast and all five of the Pacific Coast states. Ferguson became only the second Democrat since 1964, following Al Gore in 2004, to carry Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.

United States presidential election results by congressional district, 2012 (Ferguson Scenario)

Results by congressional districts explicitly indicating the percentage for the winning candidate. Shades of blue are for Ferguson (Democratic), and shades of red are for Romney (Republican).

Only two Southern states appeared on Ferguson's top 10: West Virginia and Maryland, two border states which have come to resemble the Northeast in presidential voting behavior. The Midwestern states of Illinois and Michigan made it to the Ferguson top 10. The traditionally Democratic states of Rhode Island (which gave him his strongest victory), Hawaii, and Massachusetts were there, as were once−Republican Vermont and the normally Republican−leaning state of New Jersey. The populous state of New York – which had been among Kucinich's strongest in 2008 – rounded out the list. Ferguson's victory in Massachusetts saw the state reverting to its normal Democratic allegiances, after it had defected to support its then−incumbent Governor Romney in 2008. Romney suffered the worst defeat of any presidential candidate in their home state in modern times.

Romney's top 10, as in 2008, were a mix of predominantly Southern and Western states. The heavily Mormon states of Utah and Idaho once again topped his list, and were accompanied by traditionally Republican Kansas and Nebraska on the Great Plains. Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in the Deep South were there again, and this time were joined by their sister−state Mississippi. Virginia in the Upper South also appeared on the list. The Romney coalition was clearly a continuation of the Reagan−Bush coalition which had powered the Republican Party to victory since the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

The movement towards Ferguson encompassed the entire nation. While varying in its intensity, the pro−Ferguson trend was almost universal. Not a single county switched from Kucinich in 2008 to Romney in 2012, and Ferguson ran ahead of Kucinich in every county. Ferguson carried 1,289 counties that supported Romney in 2008, flipping at least one county in every state. He ran 13 percentage points ahead of Kucinich's 2008 vote. He gained 20 percentage points in North Dakota and Massachusetts, 19 in Maine and Vermont, 18 in Connecticut, New Hampshire, and New Jersey, 17 in Kentucky, 16 in Colorado, and 15 in Arizona, California, Montana, and Rhode Island. New England was the region most responsive to the Ferguson campaign. Ferguson ran ahead of the 2008 Democratic vote percentage in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Of the 3,143 counties making returns, Ferguson won in 1,655 (52.66%) while Romney carried 1,488 (47.34%). Ferguson had a majority in 1,604 counties, while Romney had a majority in 1,446 counties. Every county in four states supported Ferguson[lower-alpha 1], and Romney won only one county in an additional four states.[lower-alpha 2] Ferguson was the first Democratic challenger to carry a majority of counties since Jimmy Carter in 1976. He carried 11 of Donald Trump's counties from the 2000 election, while Romney carried 15 (all of them in New York).

In the nation's 23 most populous counties (metropolitan America), Ferguson defeated Romney by a landslide margin, amassing 13,748,418 votes (63.05%) to Romney's 7,657,221 (35.11%). Ferguson's margin of victory in these counties was 6,091,197 votes, or 27.94%. Third parties received 401,259 votes (1.89%). In the remainder of the country, Ferguson prevailed over Romney by a narrower but still decisive margin, amassing 56,954,401 votes (53.09%) to Romney's 49,580,046 (46.22%), with third parties receiving 744,061 votes (0.69%). Ferguson's margin in these counties was 7,374,355 votes, or 6.87%. Ferguson's gains in metropolitan (13.77%) and nonmetropolitan (12.92%) America were similar. He carried 21 of the 23 most populous counties, with Romney carrying only Riverside and Orange Counties, California.

Although the "other" vote (the combined vote total for candidates other than the nominees of the two major parties) was higher than in 2008, it was still considerably less than what had been recorded in 2000, the time of the greatest "other" vote, and less than in 2004. Those were the years in which billionaire businessman Donald Trump had run as the nominee of the Reform Party. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 0.65% of the popular vote, higher than what previous Libertarian nominee Bob Barr had garnered in 2008. He managed to receive more than 1% of the popular vote in eight states, with his best showings in Arkansas and his home state of New Mexico (where he had been Governor).[lower-alpha 3] Nevertheless, no third−party candidates were on the ballot in eighteen states and the District of Columbia.[lower-alpha 4]

Paradoxically, the total votes cast declined 2,228,414 from 2008; this was the first presidential turnout decline since 1996. However, voter turnout did not decrease in every state, and increased the most in the fast−growing states of North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and Washington, as well as Romney's home state of Massachusetts.

Riding off Ferguson's coattails, Democrats extended their control over the U.S. House and flipped the U.S. Senate.

Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote
Running mate
Count Percentage Vice-presidential candidate Home state Electoral vote
Henry Thomas Ferguson Democratic Texas 70,702,819 54.77% 421 Amy Jean Klobuchar Minnesota 421
Willard Mitt Romney Republican Massachusetts 57,237,267 44.34% 117 John Edward Sununu New Hampshire 117
Gary Earl Johnson Libertarian New Mexico 835,320 0.65% 0 James Polin Gray California 0
Dr. Jill Ellen Stein Green Massachusetts 213,563 0.17% 0 Cheri Lynn Honkala Pennsylvania 0
Other 96,437 0.07% Other
Total 129,085,406 100% 538 538
Needed to win 270 270
54.77% 44.34% 0.65% 0.17% 0.07%
Ferguson Romney Johnson Stein Others
Popular vote
Ferguson
  
54.77%
Romney
  
44.34%
Others
  
0.89%
421 117
Ferguson Romney
Electoral vote—President
Ferguson
  
78.25%
Romney
  
21.75%
Electoral vote—Vice President
Klobuchar
  
78.25%
Sununu
  
21.75%

Geography of results[]

Ferguson 2012 States-Chart Map

Cartographic gallery[]

Results by state[]

The table below displays the official vote tallies by each state's Electoral College voting method. The source for the results of all states, except those that amended their official results, is the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Ferguson's margin of victory over Romney (the margin is negative for every state that Romney won).

States/districts won by Ferguson/Klobuchar
States/districts won by Romney/Sununu
Henry Ferguson
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Others Margin Total
State/district # % EV # % EV # % EV # % EV # % EV # % #
Alabama 846,952 40.83 1,227,386 59.17 9 −380,434 −18.34 2,074,338 AL
Alaska 164,671 54.80 3 135,824 45.20 28,857 9.60 300,495 AK
Arizona 1,237,459 53.82 11 1,056,047 45.93 5,748 0.25 181,412 7.89 2,299,254 AZ
Arkansas 536,766 50.19 6 460,513 43.06 72,189 6.76 76,253 7.13 1,069,468 AR
California 7,613,208 58.39 55 4,875,113 37.39 363,775 2.79 118,651 0.91 67,800 0.52 2,738,095 21.00 13,038,547 CA
Colorado 1,424,798 55.45 9 1,124,421 43.76 14,132 0.55 5,139 0.20 1,028 0.04 300,377 11.69 2,569,518 CO
Connecticut 920,722 59.06 7 625,922 40.15 6,080 0.39 6,236 0.40 294,800 18.91 1,558,960 CT
Delaware 228,319 55.16 3 183,450 44.32 1,697 0.41 455 0.11 44,869 10.84 413,921 DE
D.C. 261,979 89.18 3 31,785 10.82 230,194 78.36 293,764 DC
Florida 3,922,697 46.29 4,551,482 53.71 29 −628,785 −7.42 8,474,179 FL
Georgia 1,618,911 41.51 2,270,999 58.23 16 10,140 0.26 −652,088 −16.72 3,900,050 GA
Hawaii 271,860 62.54 4 162,837 37.46 109,023 25.08 434,697 HI
Idaho 262,345 40.22 389,929 59.78 4 −127,584 −19.56 652,274 ID
Illinois 3,189,241 60.84 20 2,041,240 38.94 7,863 0.15 3,670 0.07 1,148,001 21.90 5,242,014 IL
Indiana 1,249,016 47.59 1,298,619 49.48 11 69,288 2.64 7,611 0.29 −49,603 −1.89 2,624,534 IN
Iowa 886,021 56.00 6 689,039 43.55 4,114 0.26 3,006 0.19 196,982 12.45 1,582,180 IA
Kansas 511,895 44.13 621,280 53.56 6 20,299 1.75 6,497 0.56 −109,385 −9.43 1,159,971 KS
Kentucky 1,041,125 57.93 8 745,484 41.48 10,603 0.59 295,641 16.45 1,797,212 KY
Louisiana 1,066,625 53.49 8 920,460 46.16 6,980 0.35 146,165 7.33 1,994,065 LA
Maine 401,306 56.27 4 292,276 40.98 9,352 1.31 2,127 0.30 8,119 1.14 109,030 15.29 713,180 ME
Maryland 1,604,091 59.25 10 1,103,236 40.75 500,855 18.50 2,707,327 MD
Massachusetts 1,907,629 60.22 11 1,252,852 39.55 2,851 0.08 4,435 0.14 654,777 20.67 3,167,767 MA
Michigan 2,855,608 60.36 16 1,860,687 39.33 9,462 0.20 5,204 0.11 994,921 21.03 4,730,961 MI
Minnesota 1,694,396 57.70 10 1,227,776 41.81 7,929 0.27 6,460 0.22 466,620 15.89 2,936,561 MN
Mississippi 575,299 44.75 705,786 54.90 6 4,499 0.35 −130,487 −10.15 1,285,584 MS
Missouri 1,598,144 57.96 10 1,159,179 42.04 438,965 15.92 2,757,323 MO
Montana 258,240 53.35 3 222,275 45.92 2,372 0.49 1,161 0.24 35,965 7.43 484,048 MT
Nebraska 343,887 43.29 450,492 56.71 5 −106,605 −13.42 794,379 NE
Nevada 538,008 53.01 6 476,910 46.99 61,098 6.02 1,014,918 NV
New Hampshire 385,276 54.19 4 325,696 45.81 59,580 8.38 710,972 NH
New Jersey 2,161,605 59.38 14 1,452,477 39.90 14,925 0.41 11,285 0.31 709,128 19.48 3,640,292 NJ
New Mexico 415,335 52.99 5 335,788 42.84 32,635 4.17 79,547 10.15 783,758 NM
New York 4,393,859 62.05 29 2,666,056 37.65 15,579 0.22 5,665 0.08 1,727,803 24.40 7,081,159 NY
North Carolina 2,347,749 52.11 15 2,157,623 47.89 190,126 4.22 4,505,372 NC
North Dakota 169,250 52.46 3 152,086 47.14 1,291 0.40 17,164 5.32 322,627 ND
Ohio 3,178,850 56.96 18 2,401,997 43.04 776,853 13.92 5,580,847 OH
Oklahoma 673,443 50.45 7 661,429 49.55 12,014 0.90 1,334,872 OK
Oregon 1,031,872 57.67 7 747,199 41.76 6,620 0.37 3,579 0.20 284,673 15.91 1,789,270 OR
Pennsylvania 3,380,281 58.75 20 2,337,141 40.62 25,316 0.44 10,932 0.19 1,043,140 18.13 5,753,670 PA
Rhode Island 283,821 63.63 4 162,228 36.37 121,593 27.26 446,049 RI
South Carolina 804,896 40.98 1,159,222 59.02 9 −354,326 −18.04 1,964,118 SC
South Dakota 181,762 49.96 3 177,360 48.75 4,693 1.29 4,402 1.21 363,815 SD
Tennessee 1,301,079 52.92 11 1,125,291 45.77 26,307 1.07 5,900 0.24 175,788 7.15 2,458,577 TN
Texas 4,580,477 57.30 38 3,378,201 42.26 21,583 0.27 13,590 0.17 1,202,276 15.04 7,993,851 TX
Utah 382,150 37.56 635,290 62.44 6 −253,140 −24.88 1,017,440 UT
Vermont 179,305 59.91 3 119,985 40.09 59,320 19.82 299,290 VT
Virginia 1,810,453 46.97 2,021,294 52.44 13 22,742 0.59 −210,841 −5.47 3,854,489 VA
Washington 1,752,789 56.08 12 1,339,909 42.87 27,505 0.88 5,313 0.17 412,880 13.21 3,125,516 WA
West Virginia 412,252 61.49 5 258,186 38.51 154,066 22.98 670,438 WV
Wisconsin 1,724,153 56.19 10 1,331,393 43.39 6,751 0.22 6,137 0.20 392,760 12.80 3,068,434 WI
Wyoming 120,944 48.56 128,117 51.44 3 −7,173 −2.88 249,061 WY
U.S. Total 70,702,819 54.77 421 57,237,267 44.34 117 835,320 0.65 213,563 0.17 96,437 0.07 13,465,552 10.43 129,085,406 US
Maine and Nebraska district results[]

Maine and Nebraska each allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each congressional district. The following table records the official presidential vote tallies for Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts.

District EV Ferguson % Romney % Others % Margin % Total
Maine's 1st congressional district 1 224,139 59.45% 143,527 38.07% 9,384 2.48% 80,612 21.38% 377,050
Maine's 2nd congressional district 1 177,167 52.71% 148,749 44.25% 10,214 3.04% 28,418 8.46% 336,130
Nebraska's 1st congressional district 1 122,264 45.98% 143,618 54.02% –21,354 –8.04% 265,881
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district 1 114,799 42.81% 153,374 57.19% –38,575 –14.38% 268,173
Nebraska's 3rd congressional district 1 106,824 41.04% 153,500 58.96% –46,676 –17.92% 260,324

Close states[]

Margin of victory less than 1% (7 electoral votes):

  1. Oklahoma 0.90% (12,014 votes)

Margin of victory less than 5% (32 electoral votes):

  1. South Dakota 1.21% (4,402 votes)
  2. Indiana 1.89% (49,603 votes)
  3. Wyoming 2.88% (7,173 votes)
  4. North Carolina 4.22% (190,126 votes)

Margin of victory over 5%, but less than 10% (103 electoral votes):

  1. North Dakota 5.32% (17,164 votes)
  2. Virginia 5.47% (210,841 votes)
  3. Nevada 6.02% (61,098 votes)
  4. Arkansas 7.13% (76,253 votes)
  5. Tennessee 7.15% (175,788 votes)
  6. Louisiana 7.33% (146,165 votes)
  7. Florida 7.42% (628,785 votes)
  8. Montana 7.43% (35,965 votes)
  9. Arizona 7.89% (181,412 votes)
  10. New Hampshire 8.38% (59,580 votes)
  11. Kansas 9.43% (109,385 votes)
  12. Alaska 9.60% (28,857 votes)

Tipping point:

  1. Texas 15.04% (1,202,276 votes)

Ballot access[]

Presidential ticket Party Ballot access Votes
Ferguson / Klobuchar Democratic 50+DC 70,702,819
Romney / Sununu Republican 50+DC 57,237,267
Johnson / Gray Libertarian 31 835,320
Stein / Honkala Green 19 213,563

Voter demographics[]

2012 presidential election by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Ferguson Romney % of
total vote
Total vote 55 45 100
Ideology
Liberals 93 7 25
Moderates 60 40 41
Conservatives 22 78 35
Party
Democrats 89 11 38
Republicans 16 84 32
Independents 54 46 29
Gender
Men 54 46 47
Women 56 44 53
Marital status
Married 50 50 60
Unmarried 63 37 40
Race/ethnicity
White 45 55 72
Black 92 8 12
Asian 69 31 3
Other 67 33 3
Hispanic 72 28 10
Religion
Protestant or other Christian 49 51 53
Catholic 54 46 25
Mormon 35 65 2
Jewish 73 27 2
Other 78 22 7
None 74 26 12
Religious service attendance
Weekly or more 49 51 42
Monthly 54 46 13
A few times a year 61 39 27
Never 63 37 17
White evangelical or born−again Christian?
White evangelical or born−again Christian 26 74 26
Everyone else 65 35 74
Age
18–29 years old 62 38 19
30–44 years old 58 42 27
45–64 years old 51 49 38
65 and older 53 47 16
Age by race
Whites 18–29 years old 55 45 11
Whites 30–44 years old 43 57 18
Whites 45–64 years old 44 56 29
Whites 65 and older 42 58 14
Blacks 18–29 years old 90 10 3
Blacks 30–44 years old 91 9 4
Blacks 45–64 years old 95 5 4
Blacks 65 and older 91 9 1
Others 74 26 16
LGBT?
Yes 72 28 5
No 54 46 95
Education
High school or less 60 40 24
Some college education 53 47 29
College graduate 52 48 29
Postgraduate education 58 42 18
Family income
Under $50,000 61 39 41
$50,000–100,000 53 47 31
Over $100,000 49 51 28
Union households
Union 67 33 18
Non−union 53 47 82
Region
Northeast 60 40 18
Midwest 56 44 24
South 51 49 36
West 56 44 22
Community size
Urban 64 36 32
Suburban 52 48 47
Rural areas 50 50 22

Explanatory notes[]

  1. Romney failed to carry a single county in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Rhode Island
  2. Romney carried only one county in Delaware (Sussex), New Hampshire (Belknap), Maine (Piscataquis), and Vermont (Essex)
  3. Johnson received more than 1% in Arkansas, California, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Tennessee
  4. No third-party candidates were on the ballot in Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming
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