United States presidential election, 2008 (Ferguson Scenario)

The 2008 United States presidential election was the 56th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney, the Governor of Massachusetts, and John Sununu, the junior U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, defeated the Democratic ticket of Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio and former Mayor of Cleveland, and Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont. Romney's victory ended a string of Democratic presidential wins that extended back to 1996.

Incumbent Democratic President Al Gore was ineligible to pursue a third term due to term limits established by the 22nd Amendment. Romney secured the Republican nomination by March 2008, defeating former Governors Mike Hucakbee and Jim Gilmore, former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani, and former Senator Fred Thompson, among other challengers. With Vice-President Joe Lieberman declining to pursue the nomination, the Democratic primaries were marked by a sharp contest between Kucinich and Dean, each of whom considered themselves the standard-bearer of the liberal cause within the Party. After a long primary season, Kucinich secured the Democratic presidential nomination in June 2008, and in a bid to heal tensions from the primaries, selected Dean as his running mate.

Both major-party candidates focused primarily on domestic issues, such as the budget, tax relief, and reforms for federal social insurance programs, although foreign policy was not ignored, with Romney calling for a tougher line towards China and Russia. Romney highlighted his executive experience as Governor of Massachusetts, adopted a moderate tone on divisive social issues such as gay rights and abortion, and sought to frame himself as a "compassionate conservative", who could work across the aisle with Democrats and independents to get things done. Kucinich, on his part, called for universal healthcare, the elimination of student loan debt, and the creation of extensive new jobs and subsidy programs, geared at blue-collar workers and minority communities. Ultimately, Romney was able to capitalize on the country's desire for change, and Kucinich did not actively campaign with President Gore, with whom he had ideological disagreements-and who had opposed his nomination bid.

Romney won a decisive victory, winning the Electoral College and popular vote by landslide margins. He carried 45 of the 50 states. Kucinich won just five states and the District of Columbia. Romney's total count of 73.4 million votes stood as the largest tally ever won by a presidential candidate until 2016. Republicans retained their majority in the U.S. House and won control of the U.S. Senate.

Results

Election results by county.

  Mitt Romney

  Dennis Kucinich

The total vote exceeded that of 2004 by nine million, which was an increase of 35 million over the vote cast in 1996 and 50 million more than that of 1976. Every section in the Union increased its vote, with the fast-growing Sun Belt states of California, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, and Georgia recording the most significant increases. California, in fact, experienced an increase of more than one million votes.

Results by congressional districts explicitly indicating the percentage for the winning candidate. Shades of red are for Romney (Republican), and shades of blue are for Kucinich (Democratic).

Romney won the election by a landslide margin, carrying 45 states and winning an overwhelming 479 electoral votes. The 73,403,074 votes cast for Romney was the greatest number of votes ever won by a presidential candidate until then and constituted an increase of more than 24,601,504 over the Smith vote four years earlier. Romney's margin of victory – 16,361,587 – was the third-largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate in history, surpassed only by Richard Nixon's 17,995,488 margin of victory over George McGovern in 1972 and Ronald Reagan's 16,878,120 margin of victory over Walter Mondale in 1984. Kucinich carried five states and the District of Columbia with 59 electoral votes.

Romney's top 10 states were an interesting set of geographic disparities. They included the heavily Mormon states of Utah and Idaho in the Rocky Mountain West; Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama in the Deep South; Nebraska and North Dakota on the Great Plains; New Hampshire in upper New England; and Virginia in the Upper South. Kucinich's top 10 included the traditionally Democratic states of Rhode Island, Hawaii, and West Virginia. They also contained his triumphs in the Midwestern states of Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota; Oregon on the West Coast; the populous states of California and New York; and a fourth Midwestern state, Wisconsin.

Kucinich's victory in Illinois made him the first losing Democrat to carry that state since Lewis Cass in 1848, and the first to do so against a Republican. He was the first losing Democrat to carry Michigan since Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968, and continued the Democratic winning streaks in Minnesota and Rhode Island extending back to 1976 and 1988 respectively. However, Romney became the first Republican to win Massachusetts since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the first to win California, Oregon, and Washington since George H.W. Bush in 1992.

There was a nearly universal Republican trend throughout the country. Romney carried 1,263 counties that had gone for Gore in 2004. He flipped at least one county in every state. In nine states, the Kucinich-Dean ticket failed to carry a single county. Only two counties in the nation supported Smith in 2004 and Kucinich in 2008 – Gonzales and Irion Counties, Texas. Kucinich did run ahead of Gore in several other counties that he failed to carry, the most notable of which was Marion County, Indiana. Kucinich carried 522 counties (16.61%), the fewest number of counties carried by a presidential candidate since Walter Mondale in 1984. The Republican total leaped to 2,621 counties (83.39%), the largest number of counties carried by a presidential candidate since that election. Romney won a majority of votes in 2,608 counties, while Kucinich won a majority in 507. Romney become the first Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1992 to win at least one county in every state.

With two-time Reform Party nominee Donald Trump declining to mount a third presidential bid, third-party support sank almost to the vanishing point, as the election of 2008 proved to be the first genuinely two-party contest since Mario Cuomo's election in 1996. All "Other" votes totaled only 0.66 percent of the national vote, and in eighteen states and the District of Columbia, there was no third-party vote.

Presidential candidate	Party	Home state	Popular vote		Electoral vote	Running mate
			Count	Percentage		Vice-presidential candidate	Home state	Electoral vote
Willard Mitt Romney	Republican	Massachusetts	73,403,074	55.90%	479	John Edward Sununu	New Hampshire	479
Dennis John Kucinich	Democratic	Ohio	57,041,487	43.44%	59	Howard Brush Dean III	Vermont	59
Robert Laurence "Bob" Barr Jr.	Libertarian	Georgia	419,344	0.32%	0	Wayne Allyn Root	Nevada	0
Cynthia Ann McKinney	Green	Georgia	395,276	0.30%	0	Rosa Alicia Clemente	New York	0
Other			54,639	0.04%	—	Other		—
Total			131,313,820	100%	538			538
Needed to win					270			270

↓

55.90%	43.44%	0.32%	0.30%	0.04%
Romney	Kucinich	Barr	McKinney	Others

Popular vote
Romney			55.90%
Kucinich			43.44%
Others			0.66%

↓

479	59
Romney	Kucinich

Electoral vote—President
Romney			89.00%
Kucinich			11.00%

Electoral vote—Vice President
Sununu			89.00%
Dean			11.00%

Geography of results

2008 Election Results by County (Arkana Template).png

Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote

Cartographic gallery

Presidential election results by county

Map of the 2008 presidential election by state with electoral votes and statewide percentages

Results by state

The following table records the official vote tallies for each state for those presidential candidates who were listed on ballots in enough states to have a theoretical chance for a majority in the Electoral College. State popular vote results are from the Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Romney's margin of victory over Kucinich (the margin is negative for states and districts won by Kucinich).

Legend

States/districts won by Romney/Sununu

States/districts won by Kucinich/Dean

		Mitt Romney Republican			Dennis Kucinich Democratic			Bob Barr Libertarian			Cynthia McKinney Green			Others			Margin		Total votes
State/district	EV	#	%	EV	#	%	EV	#	%	EV	#	%	EV	#	%	EV	#	%	#
Alabama	9	1,311,547	62.46	9	788,272	37.54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	523,275	24.92	2,099,819	AL
Alaska	3	193,841	59.42	3	132,356	40.58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	61,485	18.84	326,197	AK
Arizona	10	1,256,136	54.77	10	1,016,468	44.32	-	13,532	0.59	-	-	-	-	7,339	0.32	-	239,668	10.45	2,293,475	AZ
Arkansas	6	590,142	54.31	6	484,088	44.55	-	6,085	0.56	-	6,302	0.58	-	-	-	-	106,054	9.76	1,086,617	AR
California	55	6,934,199	51.13	55	6,450,040	47.56	-	43,398	0.32	-	96,289	0.71	-	37,974	0.28	-	484,159	3.57	13,561,900	CA
Colorado	9	1,322,485	55.07	9	1,054,727	43.92	-	10,898	0.45	-	13,352	0.56	-	-	-	-	267,758	11.15	2,401,462	CO
Connecticut	7	920,794	55.91	7	722,779	43.89	-	-	-	-	3,224	0.20	-	-	-	-	198,015	12.02	1,646,797	CT
Delaware	3	226,662	54.96	3	182,240	44.19	-	1,109	0.27	-	2,401	0.58	-	-	-	-	44,422	10.77	412,412	DE
District of Columbia	3	40,835	15.36	-	225,018	84.64	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-184,183	-69.28	265,853	DC
Florida	27	5,480,834	65.32	27	2,908,232	34.66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,678	0.02	-	2,572,602	30.66	8,390,744	FL
Georgia	15	2,619,202	66.74	15	1,293,511	32.96	-	11,773	0.30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,325,691	33.78	3,924,486	GA
Hawaii	4	217,985	48.06	-	235,583	51.94	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-17,598	-3.88	453,568	HI
Idaho	4	466,316	71.18	4	188,806	28.82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	277,510	42.36	655,122	ID
Illinois	21	2,651,290	48.01	-	2,871,081	51.99	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-219,791	-3.98	5,522,371	IL
Indiana	11	1,696,025	61.65	11	1,024,217	37.23	-	30,812	1.12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	671,808	24.42	2,751,054	IN
Iowa	7	834,350	54.28	7	690,169	44.90	-	4,590	0.30	-	8,014	0.52	-	-	-	-	144,181	9.38	1,537,123	IA
Kansas	6	766,241	62.00	6	452,576	36.62	-	4,202	0.34	-	9,763	0.79	-	3,090	0.25	-	313,665	25.38	1,235,872	KS
Kentucky	8	1,048,462	57.40	8	756,791	41.43	-	5,989	0.33	-	15,378	0.84	-	-	-	-	291,671	15.97	1,826,620	KY
Louisiana	9	1,148,375	58.56	9	805,389	41.08	-	-	-	-	6,997	0.36	-	-	-	-	342,986	17.48	1,960,761	LA
Maine	4	444,766	60.83	4	283,545	38.78	-	-	-	-	2,852	0.39	-	-	-	-	161,221	22.05	731,163	ME
Maryland	10	1,427,641	54.25	10	1,203,955	45.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	223,686	8.50	2,631,596	MD
Massachusetts	12	1,750,616	56.82	12	1,288,339	41.81	-	13,189	0.43	-	28,841	0.94	-	-	-	-	462,277	15.01	3,080,985	MA
Michigan	17	2,391,344	47.81	-	2,562,405	51.23	17	23,008	0.46	-	25,009	0.50	-	-	-	-	-171,061	-3.42	5,001,766	MI
Minnesota	10	1,422,297	48.87	-	1,462,169	50.24	10	6,695	0.22	-	19,208	0.66	-	-	-	-	-39,872	-1.37	2,910,369	MN
Mississippi	6	787,979	61.09	6	492,986	38.22	-	6,707	0.52	-	2,193	0.17	-	-	-	-	294,993	22.87	1,289,865	MS
Missouri	11	1,559,134	53.30	11	1,366,071	46.70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	193,063	6.60	2,925,205	MO
Montana	3	289,621	59.07	3	189,060	38.56	-	1,912	0.39	-	6,717	1.37	-	2,992	0.61	-	100,561	20.51	490,302	MT
Nebraska	5	528,044	65.90	5	273,237	34.10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	254,807	31.80	801,281	NE
Nevada	5	594,743	61.45	5	373,105	38.55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	221,638	22.90	967,848	NV
New Hampshire	4	444,285	62.49	4	266,685	37.51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	177,600	24.98	710,970	NH
New Jersey	15	2,175,496	56.24	15	1,647,869	42.60	-	10,444	0.27	-	34,428	0.89	-	-	-	-	527,627	13.64	3,868,237	NJ
New Mexico	5	479,914	57.81	5	346,832	41.78	-	3,412	0.41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	133,082	16.03	830,158	NM
New York	31	3,944,249	51.62	31	3,630,970	47.52	-	41,261	0.55	-	24,451	0.31	-	-	-	-	313,279	4.10	7,640,931	NY
North Carolina	15	2,498,964	57.97	15	1,811,825	42.03	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	687,139	15.94	4,310,789	NC
North Dakota	3	205,297	64.84	3	107,018	33.80	-	1,108	0.35	-	1,298	0.41	-	1,900	0.60	-	98,279	31.04	316,621	ND
Ohio	20	3,139,593	55.00	20	2,520,237	44.15	-	48,521	0.85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	619,356	10.85	5,708,350	OH
Oklahoma	7	851,415	58.21	7	611,246	41.79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	240,169	16.42	1,462,661	OK
Oregon	7	960,725	52.56	7	864,945	47.32	-	2,194	0.12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	95,780	5.24	1,827,864	OR
Pennsylvania	21	3,207,479	53.34	21	2,765,504	45.99	-	13,229	0.22	-	27,060	0.45	-	-	-	-	441,975	7.35	6,013,272	PA
Rhode Island	4	214,182	45.40	-	257,584	54.60	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-43,402	-9.20	471,766	RI
South Carolina	8	1,220,776	63.55	8	683,289	35.57	-	6,915	0.36	-	8,644	0.45	-	1,345	0.07	-	537,487	27.98	1,920,969	SC
South Dakota	3	229,682	60.13	3	152,293	39.87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	77,389	20.26	381,975	SD
Tennessee	11	1,477,957	56.85	11	1,121,532	43.14	-	260	0.01	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	356,425	13.71	2,599,749	TN
Texas	34	4,473,483	55.38	34	3,524,342	43.63	-	56,116	0.69	-	23,854	0.30	-	-	-	-	949,141	11.75	8,077,795	TX
Utah	5	717,420	75.33	5	234,950	24.67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	482,470	50.66	952,370	UT
Vermont	3	190,639	58.65	3	134,407	41.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	56,232	17.30	325,046	VT
Virginia	13	2,319,219	62.29	13	1,380,957	37.09	-	23,084	0.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	938,262	25.20	3,723,260	VA
Washington	11	1,649,936	54.33	11	1,357,181	44.69	-	20,043	0.66	-	9,718	0.31	-	-	-	-	292,755	9.64	3,036,878	WA
West Virginia	5	370,424	51.92	5	343,027	48.08	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	27,397	3.84	713,451	WV
Wisconsin	10	1,556,449	52.17	10	1,400,505	46.94	-	8,858	0.30	-	17,605	0.59	-	-	-	-	155,944	5.23	2,983,417	WI
Wyoming	3	153,584	60.31	3	101,074	39.69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	52,510	20.62	254,658	WY
U.S. Total	538	73,403,074	55.90	479	57,041,487	43.44	59	419,344	0.32	-	395,276	0.30	-	54,639	0.04	-	16,361,587	12.46	131,313,820	US

Close states

Margin of victory less than 5% (143 electoral votes):

1. Minnesota 1.37% (39,872 votes)
2. Michigan 3.42% (171,061 votes)
3. California 3.57% (484,159 votes)
4. West Virginia 3.84% (27,397 votes)
5. Hawaii 3.88% (17,598 votes)
6. Illinois 3.98% (219,791 votes)
7. New York 4.10% (313,279 votes)

Margin of victory over 5%, but less than 10% (87 electoral votes):

1. Wisconsin 5.23% (155,944 votes)
2. Oregon 5.24% (95,780 votes)
3. Missouri 6.60% (193,063 votes)
4. Pennsylvania 7.35% (441,975 votes)
5. Maryland 8.50% (233,686 votes)
6. Rhode Island 9.20% (43,402 votes)
7. Iowa 9.38% (144,181 votes)
8. Washington 9.64% (292,755 votes)
9. Arkansas 9.76% (106,054 votes)

Tipping point:

1. Colorado 11.15% (267,758 votes)

Ballot access

Presidential ticket	Party	Ballot access	Votes
Romney / Sununu	Republican	50+DC	73,403,074
Kucinich / Dean	Democratic	50+DC	57,041,487
Barr / Root	Libertarian	28	419,344
McKinney / Clemente	Green	23	395,276

Voter demographics

The 2008 presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup	Romney	Kucinich	% of total vote
Total vote	56	44	100
Ideology
Liberals	12	88	22
Moderates	58	42	44
Conservatives	83	17	34
Party
Democrats	22	78	39
Republicans	94	6	32
Independents	61	39	29
Gender
Men	57	43	47
Women	56	44	53
Marital status
Married	61	39	66
Non-married	47	53	34
Race
White	66	34	74
Black	10	90	12
Asian	40	60	2
Other	40	60	2
Hispanic	35	65	10
Religion
Protestant	65	35	54
Catholic	57	43	27
Jewish	38	62	2
Other	33	67	6
None	28	72	12
Religious service attendance
Weekly or more	66	34	39
Monthly	56	44	15
A few times a year	50	50	28
Never	45	55	16
White evangelical or born-again Christian?
White evangelical or born-again Christian	85	15	26
Everyone else	46	54	74
Age
18–29 years old	49	51	18
30-44 years old	56	44	35
45-64 years old	60	40	31
65 and older	58	42	16
Age by race
Whites 18–29 years old	57	43	11
Whites 30–44 years old	68	32	20
Whites 45–64 years old	67	33	30
Whites 65 and older	69	31	13
Blacks 18–29 years old	12	88	3
Blacks 30–44 years old	9	91	4
Blacks 45–64 years old	9	91	4
Blacks 65 and older	12	88	1
Others	45	55	14
First time voter?
First time voter	48	52	11
Everyone else	57	43	89
Sexual orientation
Gay, lesbian, or bisexual	39	61	4
Heterosexual	57	43	96
Education
High school or less	59	41	24
Some college education	58	42	31
College graduate	61	39	28
Postgraduate education	50	50	17
Family income
Under $50,000	50	50	37
$50,000–100,000	58	42	36
Over $100,000	63	37	26
Union households
Union	44	56	21
Non-union	60	40	79
Military service
Veterans	62	38	15
Non-veterans	55	45	85
Region
Northeast	54	46	21
Midwest	53	47	24
South	60	40	32
West	54	46	23
Community size
Urban	48	52	30
Suburban	60	40	49
Rural	60	40	21