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In the 2016 election, there was evidenced a gap in presidential preferences between those with and without a college degree, although Ferguson won handily among both groups. College graduates backed Ferguson by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%), while those without a college degree supported the President 66%-34%.
 
In the 2016 election, there was evidenced a gap in presidential preferences between those with and without a college degree, although Ferguson won handily among both groups. College graduates backed Ferguson by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%), while those without a college degree supported the President 66%-34%.
   
Young adults (18-29) preferred Ferguson over Pryor by a wide 68%-32% margin. Older voters (ages 65 and over) went for Ferguson over Pryor 59%-41%. Among voters aged 30-44, 64% supported Ferguson and 36% supported Pryor. Ferguson also had an 14-point advantage among 45-64 year-old voters (57% to 43%).
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Young adults (18-29) preferred Ferguson over Pryor by a wide 68%-32% margin. Older voters (ages 65 and over) went for Ferguson over Pryor 59%-41%. Among voters aged 30-44, 64% supported Ferguson and 36% supported Pryor. Ferguson also had a 14-point advantage among 45-64 year-old voters (57% to 43%).
   
 
Catholics preferred Ferguson by 60% to 40%, a 20 percentage point margin. Ferguson won Jewish voters by 79% to 21%. He won Others 84%-16% and carried Nones 80%-20%.
 
Catholics preferred Ferguson by 60% to 40%, a 20 percentage point margin. Ferguson won Jewish voters by 79% to 21%. He won Others 84%-16% and carried Nones 80%-20%.

Revision as of 15:50, 10 November 2020

On Election Day, Pryor lost the election to Ferguson by what was then the largest margin in history. Pryor accumulated 41 electoral votes to Ferguson's 497 and 39% of the popular vote (53,006,192) to Ferguson's 61% (83,436,593). Pryor carried four states: Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and his home state of Alabama. Pryor's strong showing in the Deep South was primarily due to his support of the Southern view on public policy: that the New Hope intruded upon the rights of states to control their own laws.

Pryor lost the popular vote in both the male and female electorate with 40% and 38%, respectively. Pryor's most narrow regional loss was the South, with 45% of the popular vote, but he lost by greater margins in the East, Midwest, and West with 32%, 37%, and 37% of the vote, respectively. Ferguson was heavily favored over Pryor among Catholics (60% to 40%), and by a smaller margin among Protestants (52% to 48%). Pryor lost the independent vote to Ferguson (65% to 35%). Ferguson won the white vote over Pryor (53% to 47%) and was heavily favored among the nonwhite electorate (84% to 16%). Pryor lost the college-educated, trade-school educated, and high-school educated population to Ferguson (61% to 39%, 59% to 41%, and 66% to 34%, respectively).

United States presidential election, 2016

National Presidential Vote

Here is the voter breakdown for all Presidential elector slates:


Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote
Running mate
Count Percentage Vice-presidential candidate Home state Electoral vote
Henry Thomas Ferguson Democratic Texas 83,436,593 61.05% 497 Amy Jean Klobuchar Minnesota 497
William Holcombe Pryor, Jr. Republican Alabama 53,006,192 38.78% 41 Paul Davis Ryan Wisconsin 41
Sam Sloan Libertarian New York 138,546 0.10% 0 RJ Harris Oklahoma 0
Jill Stein Green Massachusetts 55,825 0.04% 0 Ajamu Baraka Illinois 0
Darrell Castle Constitution Tennessee 29,190 0.02% 0 Scott Bradley Utah 0
Other 2,891 0.01% Other
Total 136,669,237 100% 538 538
Needed to win 270 270

President Ferguson's total of 83,436,593 votes far exceeds the previous record of 73,403,074 votes received by Mitt Romney in 2008. His percentage of the total popular vote-61.1 percent-was the largest any candidate received since popular votes were first counted in 1824. (Runner-ups in the total vote percentage category are Johnson with 61.0 percent in 1964 and Roosevelt with 60.8 percent in 1936). Ferguson's percentage of the two-party popular vote, however, did not set a record. Ferguson received 61.2 percent of the two-party popular vote, compared to 65.2 percent for Coolidge in 1924 and 63.9 percent for Harding in 1920.

Ferguson's popular vote margin over Pryor-30,430,401 votes-is an all-time record, easily exceeding the 17,995,488 vote margin by which Nixon defeated George McGovern in 1972 and the 16,361,587 vote plurality of Romney over Dennis Kucinich in 2008. The 2016 results contrasted vividly with those of 2012, when Ferguson, along with his running mate Amy Klobuchar, defeated the Republican ticket of Romney and Sununu by a 13,465,552 popular vote margin. The 2016 Ferguson-Klobuchar ticket received 12,733,774 more votes than the 2012 Ferguson-Klobuchar ticket.

Ferguson set another record by carrying nine states by more than a million votes: California by 4,180,568; New York by 2,876,241; Texas by 2,406,443; Illinois by 1,908,106; Pennsylvania by 1,863,207; Massachusetts by 1,753,962; Michigan by 1,612,537; Ohio by 1,422,491; New Jersey by 1,230,010. In ten states and the District of Columbia, Ferguson received more than twice as many votes as Leach: D.C. (92.5 percent); Rhode Island (80.9 percent); Hawaii (78.8 percent); Massachusetts (76.2 percent); Maine (68.8 percent); New York (68.6 percent); West Virginia (67.9 percent); Connecticut (67.8 percent); Illinois (67.2 percent); Michigan (66.7 percent). Ferguson's narrowest margin was in Idaho, where he won by 12,701 votes (50.9 percent). In all, Ferguson was victorious in 46 states and the District of Columbia, winning 497 of the 538 electoral votes.

Pryor, on the other hand, won only four states and one congressional district with 41 electoral votes. His total popular vote, 53,006,192, was 4,231,075 less than the vote of 57,237,267 which Romney received in 2012. Pryor won 38.8 percent of both the total and two-party vote. His biggest victory was in his home state of Alabama, where he won 61.6 percent of the vote. Pryor's narrowest victory was in the neighboring state of Mississippi, where he defeated Ferguson by just 12,094 votes (50.4 percent)-making it the closest state of the election.

Total Vote

The total Presidential vote of 136,669,276 was the largest in American history. The previous record was set in 2008, when 131,313,820 Americans voted for President. The percentage of eligible (voting age) persons voting in 2016 also increased. In 2012, 58.1 percent of the 222,000,000 eligible voters voted for President; in 2016, 58.6 percent of the 237,000,000 eligible voters.

Presidential Vote by District

A measure of Pryor's sweeping defeat was reflected in the fact that he won a majority (or plurality) of the vote in only 64 of the 435 congressional districts of the country. Ferguson, on the other hand, was victorious in 371 districts. The breakdowns:

States and Pie Chart Map
Region Ferguson Pryor Total
East 78 0 78
South 104 51 155
Midwest 92 2 94
West 92 10 102

Of the twelve non-southern districts which Pryor carried, seven were in California, two in Arizona, and one each in Idaho, Indiana, and Nebraska. The Southern districts he carried were fourteen in Florida, ten in Georgia, six each in Alabama and South Carolina, four in Virginia, three each in Mississippi and North Carolina, two in Tennessee, and one each in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Maryland. Pryor did not carry any Congressional districts in the Eastern states.

In contrast to recent Presidential elections, in which the Republican Presidential candidates had consistently run ahead of their party's candidate for House seats, Pryor won a greater percentage than the Republican House candidate in only 61 of the 435 House districts-and of the 61, 36 were in a single region, the South. Ferguson was the first Democratic President since Lyndon Johnson who won by greater margins than most of his party's House candidates:

Region Ferguson ahead Pryor ahead
East 62 7
South 108 36
Midwest 78 9
West 84 9

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey was based on exit polls completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day, in addition to 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. Ferguson's decisive nationwide landslide saw the President sweeping almost every major demographic bloc in the electorate, winning by dominating margins among loyally Democratic constituencies and cutting significantly into key Republican voting groups.

Ferguson won a majority of the white vote, making him one of only two Democrats to win the white vote since Lyndon B. Johnson had done so in 1964. White non-Hispanic voters preferred Ferguson over Pryor by six percentage points (53% to 47%). He held a 90-point advantage among blacks (95% to 5%). Ferguson won Hispanics by 54 percentage points (77% to 23%). He won Asians by 76% to 24%, a 52-point advantage, and Others by 68% to 32%, a 36-point advantage.

Women supported Ferguson over Pryor by 62% to 38%. By 60% to 40%, more men supported Ferguson over Pryor. As in 2012, women were 4 percentage points more Democratic than men; Ferguson won women by 24 percentage points, while winning men by 20 percentage points.

Ferguson won men and women across every racial and ethnic group. White women supported him by 54% to 46%, an 8-point advantage, while white men backed him 52% to 48%, a 4-point spread. Among black women, one of the most loyally Democratic constituencies in the country, Ferguson led Pryor 96%-4%, a 92-point spread. Among black men, he won by 94%-6%, a 88-point spread. All other races-Hispanics, Asians, and Others-supported Ferguson 74%-26%.

59% of actual voters in the 2016 election were married; among them, Ferguson had a 56% to 44% majority. Among unmarried voters, he led by an even larger margin (69% to 31%).

In the 2016 election, there was evidenced a gap in presidential preferences between those with and without a college degree, although Ferguson won handily among both groups. College graduates backed Ferguson by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%), while those without a college degree supported the President 66%-34%.

Young adults (18-29) preferred Ferguson over Pryor by a wide 68%-32% margin. Older voters (ages 65 and over) went for Ferguson over Pryor 59%-41%. Among voters aged 30-44, 64% supported Ferguson and 36% supported Pryor. Ferguson also had a 14-point advantage among 45-64 year-old voters (57% to 43%).

Catholics preferred Ferguson by 60% to 40%, a 20 percentage point margin. Ferguson won Jewish voters by 79% to 21%. He won Others 84%-16% and carried Nones 80%-20%.

Ferguson won Protestants 52% to 48%, a 4-point margin. Notably, the President also carried Mormons by a similar 52%-48% spread; in 2012, Romney had won them by a landslide 30-point margin, 65% to 35%. White evangelicals and born-again Christians backed Pryor by 68% to 32%, a 36-point margin; this represented a substantial swing from 2012, when Romney had won them 74% to 26%, or a 48-point margin.

Among all voters, those who reported attending services weekly favored Ferguson by a margin of 51% to 49%; those who attended church once or twice a month supported him 61% to 39%, a 22-point spread. Those who reported attending services only a few times a year or seldom backed Ferguson by 67% to 33%, a 2-1 advantage. Among the voters who said they never attend religious services, Ferguson led Pryor by 69% to 31%.

LGBT voters backed the President by 78% to 22%, a 56-point advantage. Heterosexual voters backed Ferguson 60% to 40%, a 20-point advantage. Union voters backed Ferguson 73% to 27%, while non-union voters went for him by 59%-41%. Ferguson won veterans 55%-45%, a 10-point advantage. Non-veterans backed Ferguson over Pryor 62% to 38%, a 24-point advantage.

Voter choice and party affiliation also demonstrated the contours of Ferguson's landslide. Democrats backed Ferguson 95%-5%, and the President won independents over Pryor by 65% to 35%. He also managed to obtain a considerable amount of support among Republicans, as Pryor won them by only 80%-20%. Ferguson won liberals 97%-3% and moderates 66%-34%, while Pryor carried conservatives 71%-29%.

2016 results seen through different types of communities

Group 1: Urban, suburban, rural

Table 1: Major Urban Centers

Urban America has been an integral part of the Democratic coalition since Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal, and President Ferguson dominated in these counties in 2016, winning them by wider margins than he had in 2012. Every county on this list voted Democratic, including swing Hillsborough County (Tampa) and Republican-leaning Maricopa County (Phoenix).

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Maricopa Co. (Phoenix) 56.94% 43.06% 1,567,834
Los Angeles Co. 71.76% 28.18% 3,434,308
San Francisco Co. 85.04% 14.91% 405,792
Hillsborough Co. (Tampa) 53.96% 46.04% 597,660
Fulton Co. (Atlanta) 64.13% 35.86% 430,599
Cook Co. (Chicago) 78.19% 21.81% 2,158,576
Wayne Co. (Detroit) 84.19% 15.36% 777,838
Hennepin Co. (Minneapolis) 71.00% 28.78% 679,970
Clark Co. (Las Vegas) 60.66% 39.34% 767,156
New York City 82.29% 17.53% 2,741,420
Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland) 76.31% 23.69% 603,822
Philadelphia Co. 88.08% 11.59% 707,631
Harris Co. (Houston) 64.85% 35.02% 1,312,112
King Co. (Seattle) 69.97% 28.96% 998,499
Milwaukee Co. 71.17% 28.61% 441,053

Table 2: Major Suburban Counties

Suburban counties have over the past several decades played a vital role in deciding the outcome of national elections, with Republicans often reliant upon them to secure victory (except for in landslides). They are also important for Democrats, and in conjunction with the cities and select Democratic rural strongholds, will secure them victory as well. President Ferguson won a landslide among suburban voters, winning by overwhelming margins in Democratic bastions such as Montgomery County, Maryland and St. Louis County, Missouri, but also carrying normally Republican strongholds such as Orange County, California and Waukesha County, Wisconsin. The only suburban county of note on this list carried by Pryor was Cobb County, Georgia-one of the most Republican suburban counties in the nation.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Orange Co. 51.94% 47.95% 1,197,521
Arapahoe Co. 58.44% 40.86% 303,048
Cobb Co. 42.67% 57.33% 327,499
DuPage Co. 58.72% 41.28% 423,647
Montgomery Co. (MD) 74.72% 25.28% 478,873
Macomb Co. 67.66% 32.14% 419,312
Oakland Co. 66.14% 33.66% 664,614
St. Louis Co. 73.17% 26.83% 514,858
Bergen Co. 64.59% 35.23% 419,296
Nassau Co. 59.03% 40.87% 647,122
Montgomery Co. (PA) 67.91% 31.80% 434,687
Collin Co. 56.16% 43.66% 361,419
Fairfax Co. 59.88% 39.90% 551,183
Waukesha Co. 52.32% 47.50% 237,593

Table 3: Small-Town America

Rural and small-town America has in recent years tended to be competitive between the two parties, with Republicans usually holding the advantage throughout much of the South, Midwest, and West, and Democrats generally doing best in majority-minority counties, counties with an industrial or blue-collar tradition, and in Northeastern rural counties, particularly those of New England. In 2016, hundreds of rural counties that had gone for Mitt Romney defected to President Ferguson, and combined with his strength in the Democratic strongholds, enabled him to win a majority of the overall rural vote. Many of these voters were motivated by objections to Pryor's views concerning Medicaid expansion, farm and energy subsidies, infrastructure, the environment, and education, and viewed Ferguson as a social moderate.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Monroe Co. (Monroeville) 44.53% 55.47% 10,271
Hempstead Co. (Hope) 63.80% 35.47% 7,049
Madison Co. (Winterset) 51.97% 47.71% 8,636
Huntington Co. 47.82% 51.60% 16,043
Lee Co. (Dixon) 58.12% 41.88% 15,302
Russell Co. 55.41% 43.84% 3,193
Elliott Co. 94.13% 5.76% 2,855
Winn Parish (Winnfield) 50.53% 49.38% 6,372
Marion Co. (Hannibal) 45.42% 54.58% 12,938
Neshoba Co. (Philadelphia) 33.76% 66.24% 10,553
Surry Co. (Mount Airy) 46.38% 53.62% 32,196
Marion Co. (OH) 58.04% 41.96% 26,322
Fulton Co. (PA) 46.71% 53.05% 6,771
Rhea Co. (Dayton) 45.93% 54.07% 11,062
Rockingham Co. 33.41% 65.99% 37,487

Group 2: The old and new economies

Table 4: Industrial heritage

Blue-collar America has long been an integral part of the Democrats' voting coalition. In 2016, Senator Pryor did worse than former President Romney in virtually every county with an industrial heritage, as unionized and working-class voters, strongly supportive of President Ferguson's New Hope agenda and his staunch protectionist views on trade, were simultaneously turned off by Pryor's calls for eliminating the subsidies, programs, and regulations upon which their livelihoods depended. Of the counties listed here, Pryor could only win one-Whitfield County, Georgia (Dalton), which had also supported Mitt Romney in 2012 and is very Southern in character. In all of the others, he lost to the President by landslide margins.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Pueblo Co. 72.05% 26.95% 78,646
Whitfield Co. (Dalton) 25.83% 74.16% 30,398
Dubuque Co. 67.60% 32.38% 49,721
Rock Island Co. (Moline) 70.16% 29.84% 63,170
Genesee Co. (Flint) 73.28% 26.62% 196,296
Silver Bow Co. (Butte) 78.40% 18.71% 16,439
Mahoning Co. (Youngstown) 77.09% 22.91% 115,072
Coos Co. 68.07% 31.93% 15,627
Cambria Co. (Johnstown) 75.80% 24.04% 63,072
Luzerne Co. (Wilkes-Barre) 65.85% 32.98% 134,983
Jefferson Co. (Beaumont) 75.84% 23.85% 87,618
Brown Co. (Green Bay) 54.42% 45.48% 129,011

Table 5: High tech

In recent years, America's high technology areas, spanning from California's Silicon Valley to North Carolina's Research Triangle, containing in sizable numbers the "best and brightest", have become solidly Democratic. President Ferguson won decisively in these counties in 2016, dominating in the Democratic strongholds (such as Boulder County, Colorado, and Middlesex County, Massachusetts), but also taking normally Republican counties such as Los Alamos County, New Mexico. Of the counties listed here, Pryor won only Madison County, Alabama (Huntsville) and Utah County, Utah (Provo).

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Madison Co. (Huntsville) 36.60% 63.40% 163,389
Santa Clara Co. (Silicon Valley) 72.71% 27.02% 703,709
Boulder Co. 75.52% 23.78% 188,145
Middlesex Co. (Route 128) 77.81% 21.93% 796,735
Durham Co. (Research Triangle) 77.75% 22.25% 156,006
Los Alamos Co. 58.87% 40.78% 10,885
Washington Co. (Silicon Forest) 63.47% 35.99% 269,232
Utah Co. (Provo) 41.46% 58.54% 201,551

Group 3: The young and old

Table 6: Academic influence

Academic communities have in recent decades trended Democratic, and President Ferguson furthered this trend in 2016, sweeping these counties by landslide margins against Senator Pryor. Of the counties listed here, Pryor could win only Lafayette County, Mississippi, home to Ole Miss.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Alachua Co. (U. of Florida) 58.96% 41.04% 128,571
Clarke Co. (UGA) 66.77% 33.23% 44,339
Johnson Co. (U. of Iowa) 77.86% 21.89% 76,940
Champaign Co. (U. of Illinois) 63.61% 36.39% 90,566
Monroe Co. (Indiana U.) 67.16% 32.20% 58,454
Washtenaw Co. (U. of Michigan) 78.05% 21.65% 188,578
Boone Co. (Mizzou) 63.43% 36.57% 83,868
Lafayette Co. (Ole Miss) 49.77% 50.15% 19,643
Orange Co. (UNC-Chapel Hill) 73.81% 26.19% 82,340
Tompkins Co. (Cornell) 75.19% 24.69% 42,678
Centre Co. (Penn State) 67.76% 31.64% 76,148
Charlottesville (UVA) 67.80% 31.25% 22,472

Table 7: Retirement areas

Democrats tend to run better among younger voters, Republicans among older voters (particularly those age 65 and up). But in 2016, Senator Pryor's calls for the privatization of Social Security and cuts to Medicare, along with his views on infrastructure, environmental, and foreign policy, greatly startled senior citizens, and many of these voters defected to the Democrats. Retirement communities were still much more Republican than the national average, but President Ferguson nevertheless performed better then Democrats had in preceding years.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Baxter Co. (Mountain Home) 47.24% 52.66% 19,766
La Paz Co. 53.98% 46.02% 5,874
Sarasota Co. 46.99% 53.01% 229,063
Sumter Co. (The Villages) 33.50% 66.50% 76,665
Moore Co. (Pinehurst) 46.84% 53.16% 48,687
Beaufort Co. (Hilton Head) 40.93% 59.07% 78,524
Jefferson Co. (Port Townsend) 70.24% 29.49% 20,276
Vilas Co. 62.82% 36.98% 13,611

Group 4: A look by race and ethnicity

Table 8: African-American majority

Over the last half century, African Americans have arguably been the most loyal Democratic constituency. This loyalty continued in 2016, as President Ferguson improved among black voters as compared to 2012, many of whom were greatly alienated by Senator Pryor's vote against the Criminal Justice Reform Act and his views on education, healthcare (particularly drug policy), infrastructure, and entitlements.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Macon Co. (83%) 87.43% 12.57% 9,140
Philips Co. (63%) 76.04% 23.87% 6,953
Washington D.C. (51%) 92.46% 7.54% 311,268
Gadsden Co. (56%) 71.26% 28.74% 22,113
Hancock Co. (74%) 80.90% 19.10% 3,580
East Carroll Parish (69%) 75.80% 24.00% 2,939
Prince George's Co. (64%) 89.13% 10.87% 390,385
Jefferson Co. (86%) 93.16% 6.79% 3,860
Bertie Co. (62%) 70.90% 29.10% 9,347
Allendale Co. (74%) 79.20% 20.80% 3,592
Petersburg City (79%) 88.21% 11.78% 13,786

Table 9: Hispanic majority

Hispanics have traditionally been a Democratic constituency, although they've displayed swinging tendencies in recent years. In 2016, President Ferguson won a record vote among Hispanic voters, greatly alienated as they were by Sen. Pryor's opposition to immigration reform and by his vote against the Criminal Justice Reform Act, to say nothing of his insensitive comments regarding Latin American and other foreign cultures. Nevertheless, Hispanics are still much more Republican than African-Americans, and Pryor prevailed in two Hispanic-majority counties with a long Republican pedigree-Seward County, Kansas, and Adams County, Washington, though he did much worse in both counties than Mitt Romney.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Santa Cruz Co. (83%) 75.95% 24.05% 16,287
Imperial Co. (80%) 67.93% 31.98% 48,091
Costilla Co. (66%) 80.81% 18.79% 1,848
Miami-Dade Co. (65%) 62.89% 37.11% 980,204
Seward Co. (57%) 44.64% 54.76% 5,038
Mora Co. (81%) 73.88% 26.04% 2,441
Bronx Co. (54%) 91.45% 8.51% 399,522
Bexar Co. (San Antonio) (59%) 66.36% 33.40% 589,645
Maverick Co. (96%) 83.77% 16.12% 13,588
Adams Co. (59%) 45.70% 54.18% 4,644

Table 10: Monolithically white

The almost monolithically white areas of the country tend to be Republican, particularly throughout much of the South, Midwest, and Interior West. In 2012, most of these counties had remained loyal to Mitt Romney. In 2016, President Ferguson broke into these counties, winning a clear majority of them. This reflected his carriage of the overall white vote, which he won 53-47% against Senator Leach. Of the counties on this list, Pryor could prevail only in the ancestral Republican strongholds of Jackson County, Kentucky, Holmes County, Ohio, Osage County, Missouri, and Blaine County, Nebraska.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Audubon Co. (98.6%) 58.56% 40.97% 3,412
Calhoun Co. (98.9%) 66.36% 33.64% 2,561
Martin Co. (98.4%) 60.99% 37.62% 3,953
Jackson Co. (98.9%) 27.92% 71.48% 5,501
Keweenaw Co. (98.5%) 63.02% 36.91% 1,434
Kittson Co. (98.5%) 71.51% 28.44% 2,385
Osage Co. (98.8%) 45.10% 54.90% 7,090
Petroleum Co. (98.8%) 41.38% 58.62% 322
Wells Co. (98.9%) 50.15% 48.94% 13,185
Blaine Co. (98.9%) 29.90% 70.10% 317
Holmes Co. (98.7%) 43.42% 56.58% 11,054
Elk Co. (98.5%) 70.15% 29.72% 14,426
Faulk Co. (98.9%) 52.24% 47.76% 1,118
Dickenson Co. (98.8%) 63.78% 35.68% 6,440
Lincoln Co. (99.0%) 74.21% 25.79% 7,066

Group 5: The left and the right

Table 11: State capitals

State capitals, especially those located in fair-sized cities, often combine a large government workforce with a sizable minority population. This combination often lands them in the Democratic column regardless of how their state as a whole votes. President Ferguson won a landslide majority in these counties in 2016, as government workers responded negatively to Senator Pryor's calls for cuts to the federal bureaucracy, as well as to federal grants and subsidies to state and local governments, to say nothing of his views on Social Security and healthcare.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
Pulaski Co. (Little Rock) 69.18% 29.96% 159,776
Denver Co. 77.39% 21.91% 331,852
Polk Co. (Des Moines) 64.39% 35.35% 231,555
Marion Co. (Indianapolis) 66.69% 32.98% 362,372
Suffolk Co. (Boston) 83.79% 15.52% 313,283
Ingham Co. (Lansing) 72.57% 27.23% 131,138
Wake Co. (Raleigh) 58.76% 41.24% 527,337
Franklin Co. (Columbus) 68.70% 31.30% 581,140
Oklahoma Co. (Oklahoma City) 53.06% 46.94% 273,943
Davidson Co. (Nashville) 68.10% 31.87% 249,068
Travis Co. (Austin) 74.30% 25.60% 468,720
Salt Lake Co. (Salt Lake City) 64.76% 35.24% 418,868
Dane Co. (Madison) 77.09% 22.72% 309,354

Table 12: Military influence

Many of the nation's major military installations are located in the Sun Belt, and tend to provide Republicans with clear-cut majorities. In 2016, however, Senator Pryor's perceived recklessness on matters of foreign and military policy, and strong approval by veterans and active-duty soldiers towards President Ferguson's handling of the conflicts in Yemen and Iraq, and of his efforts for reforming the VA, led to the President winning a broad majority in these counties. Of the ones listed here, Pryor held only Oklaloosa County, Florida, Bossier Parish, Louisiana, and Onslow County, North Carolina, which have been staunchly Republican in recent years.

County Ferguson% Pryor% Total
El Paso Co. (Colorado Springs) 52.73% 46.85% 318,968
Oklaloosa Co. (Elgin Air Force Base) 25.88% 74.12% 100,855
Bossier Parish (Barksdale AFB) 46.23% 53.66% 49,848
Cumberland Co. (Fort Bragg) 64.33% 35.67% 127,506
Onslow Co. (Camp Lejune) 46.81% 53.19% 57,135
Greene Co. (Wright-Patterson AFB) 56.16% 43.84% 81,858
Comanche Co. (Fort Sill) 50.88% 49.12% 32,564
Bell Co. (Fort Hood) 52.94% 46.96% 94,994
Virginia Beach City 50.68% 49.03% 203,262

Ferguson's Senate Coattails in 2016

Ferguson's Senate Coattails, 2016

Ferguson's presidential coattails, 2016.

President Ferguson's landslide victory over Senator Pryor translated to the downballot level. Of the 28 Democratic Senators elected in 2016, the President ran ahead of 16 of them, and behind 12. Among the Ferguson-led Senators included the three who picked up Republican-held seats: Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Jason Kander of Missouri, and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. These three clearly attributed their victories to President Ferguson, particularly Hassan, who won by less than 2%. Two other Democrats who won by less than 2%, Zack Space of Ohio and Catherine Cortez-Masto of Nevada, also owed their victories to the President. The twelve Democrats who led President Ferguson were all incumbents.

DEM Senator Ferguson % DEM Senate winner % Ferguson%-DEM Senate
Terry Goddard (AZ) 59.47% 63.68% -4.21%
Blanche Lincoln (AR) 56.06% 59.77% -3.71%
Michael Bennet (CO) 61.27% 66.56% -5.29%
Richard Blumenthal (CT) 67.81% 63.19% +4.62%
Jim Davis (FL) 51.15% 63.93% -12.78%
Brian Schatz (HI) 78.76% 73.61% +5.15%
Walt Minnick (ID) 50.92% 61.13% -10.21%
Tammy Duckworth (IL) 67.23% 54.86% +12.37%
Evan Bayh (IN) 55.98% 64.63% -8.65%
Tom Vilsack (IA) 61.88% 55.71% +6.17%
Jack Conway (KY) 64.01% 54.81% +9.20%
John Kennedy (LA) 59.11% 71.05% -11.94%
Chris Van Hollen (MD) 65.47% 60.89% +4.58%
Jason Kander (MO) 64.05% 55.03% +9.02%
Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV) 58.58% 50.03% +8.55%
Maggie Hassan (NH) 63.89% 50.91% +12.98%
Chuck Schumer (NY) 68.56% 78.44% -9.88%
Jeff Jackson (NC) 56.15% 53.29% +2.86%
Byron Dorgan (ND) 57.97% 100.00% -42.03%
Zack Space (OH) 62.94% 50.30% +12.64%
Brad Henry (OK) 55.75% 75.06% -19.31%
Ron Wyden (OR) 63.72% 61.60% +2.12%
Jim Hodges (SC) 44.09% 55.05% -10.96%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD) 55.61% 53.62% +1.99%
Jim Matheson (UT) 54.86% 57.33% -2.47%
Patrick Leahy (VT) 66.30% 61.26% +5.04%
Patty Murray (WA) 61.97% 59.01% +2.96%
Russ Feingold (WI) 62.09% 53.30% +8.79%

Ferguson vs. Clinton

Ferguson vs

Map of the 2016 Ferguson vs. Clinton performances by county.

Ferguson ran significantly ahead of Hillary Clinton's national and state-by-state totals in OTL. As the table below shows, Ferguson ran ahead of Clinton in every single state in the Union and in the District of Columbia, and margin-wise, everywhere except for California and the District of Columbia. Ferguson ran ahead of Clinton in 3,096 counties, tied her in 19 counties, and underperformed her in 28 counties. He exceeded or matched Clinton's performance in every county of all but four states-Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Virginia. Ferguson ran ahead of Clinton in 400 congressional districts, matched her in 8 districts, and ran behind her in 27 districts.

State Ferguson % Clinton % Ferguson # Margin Clinton # Margin Ferguson % Margin Clinton % Margin Ferguson %-Clinton %
Alabama 38.36% 34.36% -494,322 -588,708 -4.90% -27.73% +4.00%
Alaska 65.91% 36.55% 101,382 -46,933 31.82% -14.73% +29.36%
Arizona 59.47% 44.58% 487,357 -91,234 2.30% -3.50% +14.89%
Arkansas 56.06% 33.65% 143,025 -304,378 12.66% -26.92% +22.41%
California 64.69% 61.46% 4,180,568 4,269,978 33.90% 29.98% +3.23%
Colorado 61.27% 48.16% 641,681 136,386 31.36% 4.91% +13.11%
Connecticut 67.81% 54.57% 587,565 224,357 35.72% 13.64% +13.24%
Delaware 60.95% 53.09% 98,394 50,476 39.00% 11.37% +7.86%
D.C. 92.46% 90.86% 264,328 270,107 85.93% 86.78% +1.60%
Florida 51.15% 47.41% 216,661 -112,911 13.03% -1.19% +3.74%
Georgia 45.87% 45.29% -339,465 -211,141 16.40% -5.09% +0.58%
Hawaii 78.76% 62.22% 246,725 138,044 57.52% 32.18% +16.54%
Idaho 50.92% 27.48% 12,701 -219,290 1.84% -31.76% +23.44%
Illinois 67.23% 55.24% 1,908,106 944,714 30.14% 16.88% +11.99%
Indiana 55.98% 37.43% 339,681 -524,160 12.42% -18.99% +18.55%
Iowa 61.88% 41.74% 375,221 -147,314 25.40% -9.41% +20.14%
Kansas 54.09% 35.66% 106,951 -244,013 9.03% -20.38% +18.43%
Kentucky 64.01% 32.68% 545,689 -574,177 28.36% -29.84% +31.33%
Louisiana 59.11% 38.45% 371,719 -398,484 12.22% -19.64% +20.66%
Maine 68.80% 47.83% 281,670 22,142 37.66% 2.96% +20.97%
Maryland 65.47% 60.33% 860,580 734,759 30.94% 26.42% +5.14%
Massachusetts 76.19% 60.01% 1,753,962 904,303 52.75% 27.20% +16.18%
Michigan 66.70% 47.03% 1,612,537 -10,704 33.60% -0.22% +19.67%
Minnesota 63.76% 46.44% 817,597 44,593 32.11% 1.51% +17.32%
Mississippi 49.45% 40.06% -12,094 -215,583 -18.88% -17.80% +9.39%
Missouri 64.05% 37.87% 789,219 -523,443 28.10% -18.51% +26.18%
Montana 58.95% 35.41% 91,375 -101,531 18.38% -20.23% +23.54%
Nebraska 52.61% 33.70% 38,069 -211,467 5.22% -25.05% +18.91%
Nevada 58.58% 47.92% 193,117 27,202 17.16% 2.42% +10.66%
New Hampshire 63.89% 46.83% 206,766 2,736 32.49% 0.37% +17.06%
New Jersey 65.61% 54.99% 1,230,010 546,345 31.75% 13.98% +10.62%
New Mexico 59.11% 48.26% 151,521 65,567 37.64% 8.21% +10.85%
New York 68.56% 59.00% 2,876,241 1,736,585 37.25% 22.49% +9.56%
North Carolina 56.15% 46.17% 583,212 -173,315 12.30% -3.66% +9.98%
North Dakota 57.97% 27.23% 55,408 -123,036 16.09% -35.73% +30.74%
Ohio 62.94% 43.24% 1,422,491 -446,837 25.88% -8..07% +19.70%
Oklahoma 55.75% 28.93% 167,094 -528,761 11.50% -36.39% +26.82%
Oregon 63.72% 50.07% 555,671 219,703 27.76% 10.98% +13.65%
Pennsylvania 64.92% 47.45% 1,863,207 -44,284 30.22% -0.72% +17.47%
Rhode Island 80.87% 54.41% 285,563 71,982 61.74% 15.51% +26.46%
South Carolina 44.90% 40.67% -248,367 -300,016 13.04% -14.27% +4.23%
South Dakota 55.61% 31.74% 41,525 -110,265 11.22% -29.79% +23.87%
Tennessee 55.50% 34.72% 276,134 -652,230 11.01% -26.01% +20.78%
Texas 63.32% 43.12% 2,406,443 -807,179 26.83% -8.99% +20.20%
Utah 54.86% 27.16% 109,974 -204,555 9.73% -17.88% +27.70%
Vermont 66.30% 56.68% 102,743 83,204 44.44% 26.41% +9.62%
Virginia 53.54% 49.75% 293,268 212,030 7.36% 5.32% +3.79%
Washington 61.97% 52.54% 815,981 520,971 25.26% 15.71% +9.43%
West Virginia 67.94% 26.18% 256,335 -300,577 35.88% -41.67% +41.76%
Wisconsin 62.09% 46.45% 724,693 -22,748 24.35% -0.76% +15.64%
Wyoming 56.56% 21.88% 33,567 -118,446 13.12% -46.30% +34.68%