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In the 2016 election, there was evidenced a gap in presidential preferences between those with and without a college degree, although Ferguson won handily among both groups. College graduates backed Ferguson by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%), while those without a college degree supported the President 66%-34%. |
In the 2016 election, there was evidenced a gap in presidential preferences between those with and without a college degree, although Ferguson won handily among both groups. College graduates backed Ferguson by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%), while those without a college degree supported the President 66%-34%. |
||
− | Young adults (18-29) preferred Ferguson over Pryor by a wide 68%-32% margin. Older voters (ages 65 and over) went for Ferguson over Pryor 59%-41%. Among voters aged 30-44, 64% supported Ferguson and 36% supported Pryor. Ferguson also had |
+ | Young adults (18-29) preferred Ferguson over Pryor by a wide 68%-32% margin. Older voters (ages 65 and over) went for Ferguson over Pryor 59%-41%. Among voters aged 30-44, 64% supported Ferguson and 36% supported Pryor. Ferguson also had a 14-point advantage among 45-64 year-old voters (57% to 43%). |
Catholics preferred Ferguson by 60% to 40%, a 20 percentage point margin. Ferguson won Jewish voters by 79% to 21%. He won Others 84%-16% and carried Nones 80%-20%. |
Catholics preferred Ferguson by 60% to 40%, a 20 percentage point margin. Ferguson won Jewish voters by 79% to 21%. He won Others 84%-16% and carried Nones 80%-20%. |
Revision as of 15:50, 10 November 2020
On Election Day, Pryor lost the election to Ferguson by what was then the largest margin in history. Pryor accumulated 41 electoral votes to Ferguson's 497 and 39% of the popular vote (53,006,192) to Ferguson's 61% (83,436,593). Pryor carried four states: Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and his home state of Alabama. Pryor's strong showing in the Deep South was primarily due to his support of the Southern view on public policy: that the New Hope intruded upon the rights of states to control their own laws.
Pryor lost the popular vote in both the male and female electorate with 40% and 38%, respectively. Pryor's most narrow regional loss was the South, with 45% of the popular vote, but he lost by greater margins in the East, Midwest, and West with 32%, 37%, and 37% of the vote, respectively. Ferguson was heavily favored over Pryor among Catholics (60% to 40%), and by a smaller margin among Protestants (52% to 48%). Pryor lost the independent vote to Ferguson (65% to 35%). Ferguson won the white vote over Pryor (53% to 47%) and was heavily favored among the nonwhite electorate (84% to 16%). Pryor lost the college-educated, trade-school educated, and high-school educated population to Ferguson (61% to 39%, 59% to 41%, and 66% to 34%, respectively).
United States presidential election, 2016
National Presidential Vote
Here is the voter breakdown for all Presidential elector slates:
Presidential candidate | Party | Home state | Popular vote | Electoral vote |
Running mate | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Count | Percentage | Vice-presidential candidate | Home state | Electoral vote | ||||
Henry Thomas Ferguson | Democratic | Texas | 83,436,593 | 61.05% | 497 | Amy Jean Klobuchar | Minnesota | 497 |
William Holcombe Pryor, Jr. | Republican | Alabama | 53,006,192 | 38.78% | 41 | Paul Davis Ryan | Wisconsin | 41 |
Sam Sloan | Libertarian | New York | 138,546 | 0.10% | 0 | RJ Harris | Oklahoma | 0 |
Jill Stein | Green | Massachusetts | 55,825 | 0.04% | 0 | Ajamu Baraka | Illinois | 0 |
Darrell Castle | Constitution | Tennessee | 29,190 | 0.02% | 0 | Scott Bradley | Utah | 0 |
Other | 2,891 | 0.01% | — | Other | — | |||
Total | 136,669,237 | 100% | 538 | 538 | ||||
Needed to win | 270 | 270 |
President Ferguson's total of 83,436,593 votes far exceeds the previous record of 73,403,074 votes received by Mitt Romney in 2008. His percentage of the total popular vote-61.1 percent-was the largest any candidate received since popular votes were first counted in 1824. (Runner-ups in the total vote percentage category are Johnson with 61.0 percent in 1964 and Roosevelt with 60.8 percent in 1936). Ferguson's percentage of the two-party popular vote, however, did not set a record. Ferguson received 61.2 percent of the two-party popular vote, compared to 65.2 percent for Coolidge in 1924 and 63.9 percent for Harding in 1920.
Ferguson's popular vote margin over Pryor-30,430,401 votes-is an all-time record, easily exceeding the 17,995,488 vote margin by which Nixon defeated George McGovern in 1972 and the 16,361,587 vote plurality of Romney over Dennis Kucinich in 2008. The 2016 results contrasted vividly with those of 2012, when Ferguson, along with his running mate Amy Klobuchar, defeated the Republican ticket of Romney and Sununu by a 13,465,552 popular vote margin. The 2016 Ferguson-Klobuchar ticket received 12,733,774 more votes than the 2012 Ferguson-Klobuchar ticket.
Ferguson set another record by carrying nine states by more than a million votes: California by 4,180,568; New York by 2,876,241; Texas by 2,406,443; Illinois by 1,908,106; Pennsylvania by 1,863,207; Massachusetts by 1,753,962; Michigan by 1,612,537; Ohio by 1,422,491; New Jersey by 1,230,010. In ten states and the District of Columbia, Ferguson received more than twice as many votes as Leach: D.C. (92.5 percent); Rhode Island (80.9 percent); Hawaii (78.8 percent); Massachusetts (76.2 percent); Maine (68.8 percent); New York (68.6 percent); West Virginia (67.9 percent); Connecticut (67.8 percent); Illinois (67.2 percent); Michigan (66.7 percent). Ferguson's narrowest margin was in Idaho, where he won by 12,701 votes (50.9 percent). In all, Ferguson was victorious in 46 states and the District of Columbia, winning 497 of the 538 electoral votes.
Pryor, on the other hand, won only four states and one congressional district with 41 electoral votes. His total popular vote, 53,006,192, was 4,231,075 less than the vote of 57,237,267 which Romney received in 2012. Pryor won 38.8 percent of both the total and two-party vote. His biggest victory was in his home state of Alabama, where he won 61.6 percent of the vote. Pryor's narrowest victory was in the neighboring state of Mississippi, where he defeated Ferguson by just 12,094 votes (50.4 percent)-making it the closest state of the election.
Total Vote
The total Presidential vote of 136,669,276 was the largest in American history. The previous record was set in 2008, when 131,313,820 Americans voted for President. The percentage of eligible (voting age) persons voting in 2016 also increased. In 2012, 58.1 percent of the 222,000,000 eligible voters voted for President; in 2016, 58.6 percent of the 237,000,000 eligible voters.
Presidential Vote by District
A measure of Pryor's sweeping defeat was reflected in the fact that he won a majority (or plurality) of the vote in only 64 of the 435 congressional districts of the country. Ferguson, on the other hand, was victorious in 371 districts. The breakdowns:
Region | Ferguson | Pryor | Total |
---|---|---|---|
East | 78 | 0 | 78 |
South | 104 | 51 | 155 |
Midwest | 92 | 2 | 94 |
West | 92 | 10 | 102 |
Of the twelve non-southern districts which Pryor carried, seven were in California, two in Arizona, and one each in Idaho, Indiana, and Nebraska. The Southern districts he carried were fourteen in Florida, ten in Georgia, six each in Alabama and South Carolina, four in Virginia, three each in Mississippi and North Carolina, two in Tennessee, and one each in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Maryland. Pryor did not carry any Congressional districts in the Eastern states.
In contrast to recent Presidential elections, in which the Republican Presidential candidates had consistently run ahead of their party's candidate for House seats, Pryor won a greater percentage than the Republican House candidate in only 61 of the 435 House districts-and of the 61, 36 were in a single region, the South. Ferguson was the first Democratic President since Lyndon Johnson who won by greater margins than most of his party's House candidates:
Region | Ferguson ahead | Pryor ahead |
---|---|---|
East | 62 | 7 |
South | 108 | 36 |
Midwest | 78 | 9 |
West | 84 | 9 |
Voter demographics
Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey was based on exit polls completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day, in addition to 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. Ferguson's decisive nationwide landslide saw the President sweeping almost every major demographic bloc in the electorate, winning by dominating margins among loyally Democratic constituencies and cutting significantly into key Republican voting groups.
Ferguson won a majority of the white vote, making him one of only two Democrats to win the white vote since Lyndon B. Johnson had done so in 1964. White non-Hispanic voters preferred Ferguson over Pryor by six percentage points (53% to 47%). He held a 90-point advantage among blacks (95% to 5%). Ferguson won Hispanics by 54 percentage points (77% to 23%). He won Asians by 76% to 24%, a 52-point advantage, and Others by 68% to 32%, a 36-point advantage.
Women supported Ferguson over Pryor by 62% to 38%. By 60% to 40%, more men supported Ferguson over Pryor. As in 2012, women were 4 percentage points more Democratic than men; Ferguson won women by 24 percentage points, while winning men by 20 percentage points.
Ferguson won men and women across every racial and ethnic group. White women supported him by 54% to 46%, an 8-point advantage, while white men backed him 52% to 48%, a 4-point spread. Among black women, one of the most loyally Democratic constituencies in the country, Ferguson led Pryor 96%-4%, a 92-point spread. Among black men, he won by 94%-6%, a 88-point spread. All other races-Hispanics, Asians, and Others-supported Ferguson 74%-26%.
59% of actual voters in the 2016 election were married; among them, Ferguson had a 56% to 44% majority. Among unmarried voters, he led by an even larger margin (69% to 31%).
In the 2016 election, there was evidenced a gap in presidential preferences between those with and without a college degree, although Ferguson won handily among both groups. College graduates backed Ferguson by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%), while those without a college degree supported the President 66%-34%.
Young adults (18-29) preferred Ferguson over Pryor by a wide 68%-32% margin. Older voters (ages 65 and over) went for Ferguson over Pryor 59%-41%. Among voters aged 30-44, 64% supported Ferguson and 36% supported Pryor. Ferguson also had a 14-point advantage among 45-64 year-old voters (57% to 43%).
Catholics preferred Ferguson by 60% to 40%, a 20 percentage point margin. Ferguson won Jewish voters by 79% to 21%. He won Others 84%-16% and carried Nones 80%-20%.
Ferguson won Protestants 52% to 48%, a 4-point margin. Notably, the President also carried Mormons by a similar 52%-48% spread; in 2012, Romney had won them by a landslide 30-point margin, 65% to 35%. White evangelicals and born-again Christians backed Pryor by 68% to 32%, a 36-point margin; this represented a substantial swing from 2012, when Romney had won them 74% to 26%, or a 48-point margin.
Among all voters, those who reported attending services weekly favored Ferguson by a margin of 51% to 49%; those who attended church once or twice a month supported him 61% to 39%, a 22-point spread. Those who reported attending services only a few times a year or seldom backed Ferguson by 67% to 33%, a 2-1 advantage. Among the voters who said they never attend religious services, Ferguson led Pryor by 69% to 31%.
LGBT voters backed the President by 78% to 22%, a 56-point advantage. Heterosexual voters backed Ferguson 60% to 40%, a 20-point advantage. Union voters backed Ferguson 73% to 27%, while non-union voters went for him by 59%-41%. Ferguson won veterans 55%-45%, a 10-point advantage. Non-veterans backed Ferguson over Pryor 62% to 38%, a 24-point advantage.
Voter choice and party affiliation also demonstrated the contours of Ferguson's landslide. Democrats backed Ferguson 95%-5%, and the President won independents over Pryor by 65% to 35%. He also managed to obtain a considerable amount of support among Republicans, as Pryor won them by only 80%-20%. Ferguson won liberals 97%-3% and moderates 66%-34%, while Pryor carried conservatives 71%-29%.
2016 results seen through different types of communities
Group 1: Urban, suburban, rural
Table 1: Major Urban Centers
Urban America has been an integral part of the Democratic coalition since Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal, and President Ferguson dominated in these counties in 2016, winning them by wider margins than he had in 2012. Every county on this list voted Democratic, including swing Hillsborough County (Tampa) and Republican-leaning Maricopa County (Phoenix).
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Maricopa Co. (Phoenix) | 56.94% | 43.06% | 1,567,834 |
Los Angeles Co. | 71.76% | 28.18% | 3,434,308 |
San Francisco Co. | 85.04% | 14.91% | 405,792 |
Hillsborough Co. (Tampa) | 53.96% | 46.04% | 597,660 |
Fulton Co. (Atlanta) | 64.13% | 35.86% | 430,599 |
Cook Co. (Chicago) | 78.19% | 21.81% | 2,158,576 |
Wayne Co. (Detroit) | 84.19% | 15.36% | 777,838 |
Hennepin Co. (Minneapolis) | 71.00% | 28.78% | 679,970 |
Clark Co. (Las Vegas) | 60.66% | 39.34% | 767,156 |
New York City | 82.29% | 17.53% | 2,741,420 |
Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland) | 76.31% | 23.69% | 603,822 |
Philadelphia Co. | 88.08% | 11.59% | 707,631 |
Harris Co. (Houston) | 64.85% | 35.02% | 1,312,112 |
King Co. (Seattle) | 69.97% | 28.96% | 998,499 |
Milwaukee Co. | 71.17% | 28.61% | 441,053 |
Table 2: Major Suburban Counties
Suburban counties have over the past several decades played a vital role in deciding the outcome of national elections, with Republicans often reliant upon them to secure victory (except for in landslides). They are also important for Democrats, and in conjunction with the cities and select Democratic rural strongholds, will secure them victory as well. President Ferguson won a landslide among suburban voters, winning by overwhelming margins in Democratic bastions such as Montgomery County, Maryland and St. Louis County, Missouri, but also carrying normally Republican strongholds such as Orange County, California and Waukesha County, Wisconsin. The only suburban county of note on this list carried by Pryor was Cobb County, Georgia-one of the most Republican suburban counties in the nation.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Orange Co. | 51.94% | 47.95% | 1,197,521 |
Arapahoe Co. | 58.44% | 40.86% | 303,048 |
Cobb Co. | 42.67% | 57.33% | 327,499 |
DuPage Co. | 58.72% | 41.28% | 423,647 |
Montgomery Co. (MD) | 74.72% | 25.28% | 478,873 |
Macomb Co. | 67.66% | 32.14% | 419,312 |
Oakland Co. | 66.14% | 33.66% | 664,614 |
St. Louis Co. | 73.17% | 26.83% | 514,858 |
Bergen Co. | 64.59% | 35.23% | 419,296 |
Nassau Co. | 59.03% | 40.87% | 647,122 |
Montgomery Co. (PA) | 67.91% | 31.80% | 434,687 |
Collin Co. | 56.16% | 43.66% | 361,419 |
Fairfax Co. | 59.88% | 39.90% | 551,183 |
Waukesha Co. | 52.32% | 47.50% | 237,593 |
Table 3: Small-Town America
Rural and small-town America has in recent years tended to be competitive between the two parties, with Republicans usually holding the advantage throughout much of the South, Midwest, and West, and Democrats generally doing best in majority-minority counties, counties with an industrial or blue-collar tradition, and in Northeastern rural counties, particularly those of New England. In 2016, hundreds of rural counties that had gone for Mitt Romney defected to President Ferguson, and combined with his strength in the Democratic strongholds, enabled him to win a majority of the overall rural vote. Many of these voters were motivated by objections to Pryor's views concerning Medicaid expansion, farm and energy subsidies, infrastructure, the environment, and education, and viewed Ferguson as a social moderate.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Monroe Co. (Monroeville) | 44.53% | 55.47% | 10,271 |
Hempstead Co. (Hope) | 63.80% | 35.47% | 7,049 |
Madison Co. (Winterset) | 51.97% | 47.71% | 8,636 |
Huntington Co. | 47.82% | 51.60% | 16,043 |
Lee Co. (Dixon) | 58.12% | 41.88% | 15,302 |
Russell Co. | 55.41% | 43.84% | 3,193 |
Elliott Co. | 94.13% | 5.76% | 2,855 |
Winn Parish (Winnfield) | 50.53% | 49.38% | 6,372 |
Marion Co. (Hannibal) | 45.42% | 54.58% | 12,938 |
Neshoba Co. (Philadelphia) | 33.76% | 66.24% | 10,553 |
Surry Co. (Mount Airy) | 46.38% | 53.62% | 32,196 |
Marion Co. (OH) | 58.04% | 41.96% | 26,322 |
Fulton Co. (PA) | 46.71% | 53.05% | 6,771 |
Rhea Co. (Dayton) | 45.93% | 54.07% | 11,062 |
Rockingham Co. | 33.41% | 65.99% | 37,487 |
Group 2: The old and new economies
Table 4: Industrial heritage
Blue-collar America has long been an integral part of the Democrats' voting coalition. In 2016, Senator Pryor did worse than former President Romney in virtually every county with an industrial heritage, as unionized and working-class voters, strongly supportive of President Ferguson's New Hope agenda and his staunch protectionist views on trade, were simultaneously turned off by Pryor's calls for eliminating the subsidies, programs, and regulations upon which their livelihoods depended. Of the counties listed here, Pryor could only win one-Whitfield County, Georgia (Dalton), which had also supported Mitt Romney in 2012 and is very Southern in character. In all of the others, he lost to the President by landslide margins.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Pueblo Co. | 72.05% | 26.95% | 78,646 |
Whitfield Co. (Dalton) | 25.83% | 74.16% | 30,398 |
Dubuque Co. | 67.60% | 32.38% | 49,721 |
Rock Island Co. (Moline) | 70.16% | 29.84% | 63,170 |
Genesee Co. (Flint) | 73.28% | 26.62% | 196,296 |
Silver Bow Co. (Butte) | 78.40% | 18.71% | 16,439 |
Mahoning Co. (Youngstown) | 77.09% | 22.91% | 115,072 |
Coos Co. | 68.07% | 31.93% | 15,627 |
Cambria Co. (Johnstown) | 75.80% | 24.04% | 63,072 |
Luzerne Co. (Wilkes-Barre) | 65.85% | 32.98% | 134,983 |
Jefferson Co. (Beaumont) | 75.84% | 23.85% | 87,618 |
Brown Co. (Green Bay) | 54.42% | 45.48% | 129,011 |
Table 5: High tech
In recent years, America's high technology areas, spanning from California's Silicon Valley to North Carolina's Research Triangle, containing in sizable numbers the "best and brightest", have become solidly Democratic. President Ferguson won decisively in these counties in 2016, dominating in the Democratic strongholds (such as Boulder County, Colorado, and Middlesex County, Massachusetts), but also taking normally Republican counties such as Los Alamos County, New Mexico. Of the counties listed here, Pryor won only Madison County, Alabama (Huntsville) and Utah County, Utah (Provo).
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Madison Co. (Huntsville) | 36.60% | 63.40% | 163,389 |
Santa Clara Co. (Silicon Valley) | 72.71% | 27.02% | 703,709 |
Boulder Co. | 75.52% | 23.78% | 188,145 |
Middlesex Co. (Route 128) | 77.81% | 21.93% | 796,735 |
Durham Co. (Research Triangle) | 77.75% | 22.25% | 156,006 |
Los Alamos Co. | 58.87% | 40.78% | 10,885 |
Washington Co. (Silicon Forest) | 63.47% | 35.99% | 269,232 |
Utah Co. (Provo) | 41.46% | 58.54% | 201,551 |
Group 3: The young and old
Table 6: Academic influence
Academic communities have in recent decades trended Democratic, and President Ferguson furthered this trend in 2016, sweeping these counties by landslide margins against Senator Pryor. Of the counties listed here, Pryor could win only Lafayette County, Mississippi, home to Ole Miss.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Alachua Co. (U. of Florida) | 58.96% | 41.04% | 128,571 |
Clarke Co. (UGA) | 66.77% | 33.23% | 44,339 |
Johnson Co. (U. of Iowa) | 77.86% | 21.89% | 76,940 |
Champaign Co. (U. of Illinois) | 63.61% | 36.39% | 90,566 |
Monroe Co. (Indiana U.) | 67.16% | 32.20% | 58,454 |
Washtenaw Co. (U. of Michigan) | 78.05% | 21.65% | 188,578 |
Boone Co. (Mizzou) | 63.43% | 36.57% | 83,868 |
Lafayette Co. (Ole Miss) | 49.77% | 50.15% | 19,643 |
Orange Co. (UNC-Chapel Hill) | 73.81% | 26.19% | 82,340 |
Tompkins Co. (Cornell) | 75.19% | 24.69% | 42,678 |
Centre Co. (Penn State) | 67.76% | 31.64% | 76,148 |
Charlottesville (UVA) | 67.80% | 31.25% | 22,472 |
Table 7: Retirement areas
Democrats tend to run better among younger voters, Republicans among older voters (particularly those age 65 and up). But in 2016, Senator Pryor's calls for the privatization of Social Security and cuts to Medicare, along with his views on infrastructure, environmental, and foreign policy, greatly startled senior citizens, and many of these voters defected to the Democrats. Retirement communities were still much more Republican than the national average, but President Ferguson nevertheless performed better then Democrats had in preceding years.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Baxter Co. (Mountain Home) | 47.24% | 52.66% | 19,766 |
La Paz Co. | 53.98% | 46.02% | 5,874 |
Sarasota Co. | 46.99% | 53.01% | 229,063 |
Sumter Co. (The Villages) | 33.50% | 66.50% | 76,665 |
Moore Co. (Pinehurst) | 46.84% | 53.16% | 48,687 |
Beaufort Co. (Hilton Head) | 40.93% | 59.07% | 78,524 |
Jefferson Co. (Port Townsend) | 70.24% | 29.49% | 20,276 |
Vilas Co. | 62.82% | 36.98% | 13,611 |
Group 4: A look by race and ethnicity
Table 8: African-American majority
Over the last half century, African Americans have arguably been the most loyal Democratic constituency. This loyalty continued in 2016, as President Ferguson improved among black voters as compared to 2012, many of whom were greatly alienated by Senator Pryor's vote against the Criminal Justice Reform Act and his views on education, healthcare (particularly drug policy), infrastructure, and entitlements.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Macon Co. (83%) | 87.43% | 12.57% | 9,140 |
Philips Co. (63%) | 76.04% | 23.87% | 6,953 |
Washington D.C. (51%) | 92.46% | 7.54% | 311,268 |
Gadsden Co. (56%) | 71.26% | 28.74% | 22,113 |
Hancock Co. (74%) | 80.90% | 19.10% | 3,580 |
East Carroll Parish (69%) | 75.80% | 24.00% | 2,939 |
Prince George's Co. (64%) | 89.13% | 10.87% | 390,385 |
Jefferson Co. (86%) | 93.16% | 6.79% | 3,860 |
Bertie Co. (62%) | 70.90% | 29.10% | 9,347 |
Allendale Co. (74%) | 79.20% | 20.80% | 3,592 |
Petersburg City (79%) | 88.21% | 11.78% | 13,786 |
Table 9: Hispanic majority
Hispanics have traditionally been a Democratic constituency, although they've displayed swinging tendencies in recent years. In 2016, President Ferguson won a record vote among Hispanic voters, greatly alienated as they were by Sen. Pryor's opposition to immigration reform and by his vote against the Criminal Justice Reform Act, to say nothing of his insensitive comments regarding Latin American and other foreign cultures. Nevertheless, Hispanics are still much more Republican than African-Americans, and Pryor prevailed in two Hispanic-majority counties with a long Republican pedigree-Seward County, Kansas, and Adams County, Washington, though he did much worse in both counties than Mitt Romney.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Santa Cruz Co. (83%) | 75.95% | 24.05% | 16,287 |
Imperial Co. (80%) | 67.93% | 31.98% | 48,091 |
Costilla Co. (66%) | 80.81% | 18.79% | 1,848 |
Miami-Dade Co. (65%) | 62.89% | 37.11% | 980,204 |
Seward Co. (57%) | 44.64% | 54.76% | 5,038 |
Mora Co. (81%) | 73.88% | 26.04% | 2,441 |
Bronx Co. (54%) | 91.45% | 8.51% | 399,522 |
Bexar Co. (San Antonio) (59%) | 66.36% | 33.40% | 589,645 |
Maverick Co. (96%) | 83.77% | 16.12% | 13,588 |
Adams Co. (59%) | 45.70% | 54.18% | 4,644 |
Table 10: Monolithically white
The almost monolithically white areas of the country tend to be Republican, particularly throughout much of the South, Midwest, and Interior West. In 2012, most of these counties had remained loyal to Mitt Romney. In 2016, President Ferguson broke into these counties, winning a clear majority of them. This reflected his carriage of the overall white vote, which he won 53-47% against Senator Leach. Of the counties on this list, Pryor could prevail only in the ancestral Republican strongholds of Jackson County, Kentucky, Holmes County, Ohio, Osage County, Missouri, and Blaine County, Nebraska.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Audubon Co. (98.6%) | 58.56% | 40.97% | 3,412 |
Calhoun Co. (98.9%) | 66.36% | 33.64% | 2,561 |
Martin Co. (98.4%) | 60.99% | 37.62% | 3,953 |
Jackson Co. (98.9%) | 27.92% | 71.48% | 5,501 |
Keweenaw Co. (98.5%) | 63.02% | 36.91% | 1,434 |
Kittson Co. (98.5%) | 71.51% | 28.44% | 2,385 |
Osage Co. (98.8%) | 45.10% | 54.90% | 7,090 |
Petroleum Co. (98.8%) | 41.38% | 58.62% | 322 |
Wells Co. (98.9%) | 50.15% | 48.94% | 13,185 |
Blaine Co. (98.9%) | 29.90% | 70.10% | 317 |
Holmes Co. (98.7%) | 43.42% | 56.58% | 11,054 |
Elk Co. (98.5%) | 70.15% | 29.72% | 14,426 |
Faulk Co. (98.9%) | 52.24% | 47.76% | 1,118 |
Dickenson Co. (98.8%) | 63.78% | 35.68% | 6,440 |
Lincoln Co. (99.0%) | 74.21% | 25.79% | 7,066 |
Group 5: The left and the right
Table 11: State capitals
State capitals, especially those located in fair-sized cities, often combine a large government workforce with a sizable minority population. This combination often lands them in the Democratic column regardless of how their state as a whole votes. President Ferguson won a landslide majority in these counties in 2016, as government workers responded negatively to Senator Pryor's calls for cuts to the federal bureaucracy, as well as to federal grants and subsidies to state and local governments, to say nothing of his views on Social Security and healthcare.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Pulaski Co. (Little Rock) | 69.18% | 29.96% | 159,776 |
Denver Co. | 77.39% | 21.91% | 331,852 |
Polk Co. (Des Moines) | 64.39% | 35.35% | 231,555 |
Marion Co. (Indianapolis) | 66.69% | 32.98% | 362,372 |
Suffolk Co. (Boston) | 83.79% | 15.52% | 313,283 |
Ingham Co. (Lansing) | 72.57% | 27.23% | 131,138 |
Wake Co. (Raleigh) | 58.76% | 41.24% | 527,337 |
Franklin Co. (Columbus) | 68.70% | 31.30% | 581,140 |
Oklahoma Co. (Oklahoma City) | 53.06% | 46.94% | 273,943 |
Davidson Co. (Nashville) | 68.10% | 31.87% | 249,068 |
Travis Co. (Austin) | 74.30% | 25.60% | 468,720 |
Salt Lake Co. (Salt Lake City) | 64.76% | 35.24% | 418,868 |
Dane Co. (Madison) | 77.09% | 22.72% | 309,354 |
Table 12: Military influence
Many of the nation's major military installations are located in the Sun Belt, and tend to provide Republicans with clear-cut majorities. In 2016, however, Senator Pryor's perceived recklessness on matters of foreign and military policy, and strong approval by veterans and active-duty soldiers towards President Ferguson's handling of the conflicts in Yemen and Iraq, and of his efforts for reforming the VA, led to the President winning a broad majority in these counties. Of the ones listed here, Pryor held only Oklaloosa County, Florida, Bossier Parish, Louisiana, and Onslow County, North Carolina, which have been staunchly Republican in recent years.
County | Ferguson% | Pryor% | Total |
---|---|---|---|
El Paso Co. (Colorado Springs) | 52.73% | 46.85% | 318,968 |
Oklaloosa Co. (Elgin Air Force Base) | 25.88% | 74.12% | 100,855 |
Bossier Parish (Barksdale AFB) | 46.23% | 53.66% | 49,848 |
Cumberland Co. (Fort Bragg) | 64.33% | 35.67% | 127,506 |
Onslow Co. (Camp Lejune) | 46.81% | 53.19% | 57,135 |
Greene Co. (Wright-Patterson AFB) | 56.16% | 43.84% | 81,858 |
Comanche Co. (Fort Sill) | 50.88% | 49.12% | 32,564 |
Bell Co. (Fort Hood) | 52.94% | 46.96% | 94,994 |
Virginia Beach City | 50.68% | 49.03% | 203,262 |
Ferguson's Senate Coattails in 2016
President Ferguson's landslide victory over Senator Pryor translated to the downballot level. Of the 28 Democratic Senators elected in 2016, the President ran ahead of 16 of them, and behind 12. Among the Ferguson-led Senators included the three who picked up Republican-held seats: Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Jason Kander of Missouri, and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. These three clearly attributed their victories to President Ferguson, particularly Hassan, who won by less than 2%. Two other Democrats who won by less than 2%, Zack Space of Ohio and Catherine Cortez-Masto of Nevada, also owed their victories to the President. The twelve Democrats who led President Ferguson were all incumbents.
DEM Senator | Ferguson % | DEM Senate winner % | Ferguson%-DEM Senate |
---|---|---|---|
Terry Goddard (AZ) | 59.47% | 63.68% | -4.21% |
Blanche Lincoln (AR) | 56.06% | 59.77% | -3.71% |
Michael Bennet (CO) | 61.27% | 66.56% | -5.29% |
Richard Blumenthal (CT) | 67.81% | 63.19% | +4.62% |
Jim Davis (FL) | 51.15% | 63.93% | -12.78% |
Brian Schatz (HI) | 78.76% | 73.61% | +5.15% |
Walt Minnick (ID) | 50.92% | 61.13% | -10.21% |
Tammy Duckworth (IL) | 67.23% | 54.86% | +12.37% |
Evan Bayh (IN) | 55.98% | 64.63% | -8.65% |
Tom Vilsack (IA) | 61.88% | 55.71% | +6.17% |
Jack Conway (KY) | 64.01% | 54.81% | +9.20% |
John Kennedy (LA) | 59.11% | 71.05% | -11.94% |
Chris Van Hollen (MD) | 65.47% | 60.89% | +4.58% |
Jason Kander (MO) | 64.05% | 55.03% | +9.02% |
Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV) | 58.58% | 50.03% | +8.55% |
Maggie Hassan (NH) | 63.89% | 50.91% | +12.98% |
Chuck Schumer (NY) | 68.56% | 78.44% | -9.88% |
Jeff Jackson (NC) | 56.15% | 53.29% | +2.86% |
Byron Dorgan (ND) | 57.97% | 100.00% | -42.03% |
Zack Space (OH) | 62.94% | 50.30% | +12.64% |
Brad Henry (OK) | 55.75% | 75.06% | -19.31% |
Ron Wyden (OR) | 63.72% | 61.60% | +2.12% |
Jim Hodges (SC) | 44.09% | 55.05% | -10.96% |
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD) | 55.61% | 53.62% | +1.99% |
Jim Matheson (UT) | 54.86% | 57.33% | -2.47% |
Patrick Leahy (VT) | 66.30% | 61.26% | +5.04% |
Patty Murray (WA) | 61.97% | 59.01% | +2.96% |
Russ Feingold (WI) | 62.09% | 53.30% | +8.79% |
Ferguson vs. Clinton
Ferguson ran significantly ahead of Hillary Clinton's national and state-by-state totals in OTL. As the table below shows, Ferguson ran ahead of Clinton in every single state in the Union and in the District of Columbia, and margin-wise, everywhere except for California and the District of Columbia. Ferguson ran ahead of Clinton in 3,096 counties, tied her in 19 counties, and underperformed her in 28 counties. He exceeded or matched Clinton's performance in every county of all but four states-Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Virginia. Ferguson ran ahead of Clinton in 400 congressional districts, matched her in 8 districts, and ran behind her in 27 districts.
State | Ferguson % | Clinton % | Ferguson # Margin | Clinton # Margin | Ferguson % Margin | Clinton % Margin | Ferguson %-Clinton % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 38.36% | 34.36% | -494,322 | -588,708 | -4.90% | -27.73% | +4.00% |
Alaska | 65.91% | 36.55% | 101,382 | -46,933 | 31.82% | -14.73% | +29.36% |
Arizona | 59.47% | 44.58% | 487,357 | -91,234 | 2.30% | -3.50% | +14.89% |
Arkansas | 56.06% | 33.65% | 143,025 | -304,378 | 12.66% | -26.92% | +22.41% |
California | 64.69% | 61.46% | 4,180,568 | 4,269,978 | 33.90% | 29.98% | +3.23% |
Colorado | 61.27% | 48.16% | 641,681 | 136,386 | 31.36% | 4.91% | +13.11% |
Connecticut | 67.81% | 54.57% | 587,565 | 224,357 | 35.72% | 13.64% | +13.24% |
Delaware | 60.95% | 53.09% | 98,394 | 50,476 | 39.00% | 11.37% | +7.86% |
D.C. | 92.46% | 90.86% | 264,328 | 270,107 | 85.93% | 86.78% | +1.60% |
Florida | 51.15% | 47.41% | 216,661 | -112,911 | 13.03% | -1.19% | +3.74% |
Georgia | 45.87% | 45.29% | -339,465 | -211,141 | 16.40% | -5.09% | +0.58% |
Hawaii | 78.76% | 62.22% | 246,725 | 138,044 | 57.52% | 32.18% | +16.54% |
Idaho | 50.92% | 27.48% | 12,701 | -219,290 | 1.84% | -31.76% | +23.44% |
Illinois | 67.23% | 55.24% | 1,908,106 | 944,714 | 30.14% | 16.88% | +11.99% |
Indiana | 55.98% | 37.43% | 339,681 | -524,160 | 12.42% | -18.99% | +18.55% |
Iowa | 61.88% | 41.74% | 375,221 | -147,314 | 25.40% | -9.41% | +20.14% |
Kansas | 54.09% | 35.66% | 106,951 | -244,013 | 9.03% | -20.38% | +18.43% |
Kentucky | 64.01% | 32.68% | 545,689 | -574,177 | 28.36% | -29.84% | +31.33% |
Louisiana | 59.11% | 38.45% | 371,719 | -398,484 | 12.22% | -19.64% | +20.66% |
Maine | 68.80% | 47.83% | 281,670 | 22,142 | 37.66% | 2.96% | +20.97% |
Maryland | 65.47% | 60.33% | 860,580 | 734,759 | 30.94% | 26.42% | +5.14% |
Massachusetts | 76.19% | 60.01% | 1,753,962 | 904,303 | 52.75% | 27.20% | +16.18% |
Michigan | 66.70% | 47.03% | 1,612,537 | -10,704 | 33.60% | -0.22% | +19.67% |
Minnesota | 63.76% | 46.44% | 817,597 | 44,593 | 32.11% | 1.51% | +17.32% |
Mississippi | 49.45% | 40.06% | -12,094 | -215,583 | -18.88% | -17.80% | +9.39% |
Missouri | 64.05% | 37.87% | 789,219 | -523,443 | 28.10% | -18.51% | +26.18% |
Montana | 58.95% | 35.41% | 91,375 | -101,531 | 18.38% | -20.23% | +23.54% |
Nebraska | 52.61% | 33.70% | 38,069 | -211,467 | 5.22% | -25.05% | +18.91% |
Nevada | 58.58% | 47.92% | 193,117 | 27,202 | 17.16% | 2.42% | +10.66% |
New Hampshire | 63.89% | 46.83% | 206,766 | 2,736 | 32.49% | 0.37% | +17.06% |
New Jersey | 65.61% | 54.99% | 1,230,010 | 546,345 | 31.75% | 13.98% | +10.62% |
New Mexico | 59.11% | 48.26% | 151,521 | 65,567 | 37.64% | 8.21% | +10.85% |
New York | 68.56% | 59.00% | 2,876,241 | 1,736,585 | 37.25% | 22.49% | +9.56% |
North Carolina | 56.15% | 46.17% | 583,212 | -173,315 | 12.30% | -3.66% | +9.98% |
North Dakota | 57.97% | 27.23% | 55,408 | -123,036 | 16.09% | -35.73% | +30.74% |
Ohio | 62.94% | 43.24% | 1,422,491 | -446,837 | 25.88% | -8..07% | +19.70% |
Oklahoma | 55.75% | 28.93% | 167,094 | -528,761 | 11.50% | -36.39% | +26.82% |
Oregon | 63.72% | 50.07% | 555,671 | 219,703 | 27.76% | 10.98% | +13.65% |
Pennsylvania | 64.92% | 47.45% | 1,863,207 | -44,284 | 30.22% | -0.72% | +17.47% |
Rhode Island | 80.87% | 54.41% | 285,563 | 71,982 | 61.74% | 15.51% | +26.46% |
South Carolina | 44.90% | 40.67% | -248,367 | -300,016 | 13.04% | -14.27% | +4.23% |
South Dakota | 55.61% | 31.74% | 41,525 | -110,265 | 11.22% | -29.79% | +23.87% |
Tennessee | 55.50% | 34.72% | 276,134 | -652,230 | 11.01% | -26.01% | +20.78% |
Texas | 63.32% | 43.12% | 2,406,443 | -807,179 | 26.83% | -8.99% | +20.20% |
Utah | 54.86% | 27.16% | 109,974 | -204,555 | 9.73% | -17.88% | +27.70% |
Vermont | 66.30% | 56.68% | 102,743 | 83,204 | 44.44% | 26.41% | +9.62% |
Virginia | 53.54% | 49.75% | 293,268 | 212,030 | 7.36% | 5.32% | +3.79% |
Washington | 61.97% | 52.54% | 815,981 | 520,971 | 25.26% | 15.71% | +9.43% |
West Virginia | 67.94% | 26.18% | 256,335 | -300,577 | 35.88% | -41.67% | +41.76% |
Wisconsin | 62.09% | 46.45% | 724,693 | -22,748 | 24.35% | -0.76% | +15.64% |
Wyoming | 56.56% | 21.88% | 33,567 | -118,446 | 13.12% | -46.30% | +34.68% |