United States presidential election in Idaho, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)



The 2016 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election, which was held throughout all 50 states and D.C. Voters chose 4 electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice-President.

Idaho was one of 46 states carried in a national landslide by incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson. However, it was by far the weakest state Ferguson carried in the election. Ferguson carried the state by a margin of 12,701 votes, or 1.84 percent, making Idaho's vote about 20.44 percent more Republican than the national average. Ferguson's strongest performance was in Blaine County where he took over 71 percent of the vote. Pryor's strongest performance was in Franklin County, taking 74% of the vote. Reflecting the closeness of the race, Ferguson and Pryor split the state's counties, carrying 22 each. They also split the more populated counties, with Ferguson narrowly carrying Ada, Bingham, and Kootenai Counties, and Pryor carrying Canyon, Bonneville, and Twin Falls Counties by slightly wider margins. Ferguson also won fairly populated Bannock County with more than sixty percent of the vote.

This was the first time since 1964 that Idaho had been carried by a Democrat in the presidential election, and the state has voted Democratic only three times since the end of World War II (with 1948 being the other occasion). Although Pryor lost, this election maintained Idaho's status as a stronghold of the Republican Party. By winning Ada County, home to Idaho's capital Boise, Ferguson became the first Democrat to prevail there since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.