United States presidential election, 2016

The United States presidential election of 2016 was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. Democratic candidate and incumbent President William J. Rutherford had come into office in January 2013 with the United States gripped in the Great Recession, with immigrant rights becoming a major issue, and with foreign policy crises in the Middle East, Korean Peninsula, and Venezuela. Rutherford and the Democratic Congress had embarked upon a series of tax relief, infrastructure reform, labor reform, civil rights reform, and educational reform initiatives which had become known as the New Destiny. The President, had successfully negotiated an end to the Iranian-Saudi Arabian crisis and intervened decisively in Venezuela on behalf of the pro-democratic insurgents. Moreover, he had greatly reduced both inflation and unemployment and had passed the pivotal comprehensive Civil Rights Protections Act. Rutherford, consequently, who enjoyed high approval ratings with the American populace, won 63.6% of the popular vote, the highest win by a candidate since James Monroe's re-election in 1820. It was the most lopsided US presidential election in terms of both popular and electoral votes. No candidate for president has since equaled or surpassed Rutherford's percentage of the popular vote, and since 1820, only Abraham Lincoln in 1864, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, Richard M. Nixon in 1972, and Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 have won by a similar electoral vote margin.

The Republican candidate, businessman Donald J. Trump of New York, suffered from a lack of support within his own party, his controversial statements and business record, and his deeply unpopular political positions. Rutherford continued to advocate for the New Destiny and successfully portrayed Trump as being a dangerous extremist. Rutherford easily won reelection to the Presidency, carrying 48 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. He obtained 527 electoral votes to Trump's 11. Trump carried just two states, both of which were traditionally Republican (Wyoming and Oklahoma), in addition to the heavily Republican 3rd district of Nebraska.

Trump's unsuccessful bid spelled an end to the historic conservative movement and caused a realignment within the Republican Party that ultimately led to the election of Tim Scott in 2024. His campaign still received its greatest amount of support from historic Republican regions in the South and Interior West. Conversely, Rutherford became the first Democrat to win the states of Utah, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, the first to win Alabama since 1976, and only the second Democrat to win Arkansas since 1980.

No post 2016 presidential candidate has been able to better Rutherford's performance in the Electoral College, in the popular vote, or on a geographical basis. Moreover, Rutherford had the best performance of any Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson. This was the last election held before the admission of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Campaign
Although Trump had been successful in overcoming opposing factions at the Republican National Convention, he was unable to broaden his base of support for the general election. Shortly before the Convention, he had alienated moderate Republicans by coming out in opposition to the Civil Rights Protections Act, which Rutherford championed and signed into law. Trump said that he considered civil rights to be a state, rather than a federal issue, believed that the 2016 act was unconstitutional, and that it infringed upon law enforcement. Trump's opposition to the legislation helped cause black and Hispanic voters to vote overwhelmingly for the President. Trump also expressed his strong opposition to the Supreme Court's ruling in Gonzales v. Arizona (2012), which had reaffirmed the right of all refugees fleeing to American soil. Moreover, Trump became known for his controversial statements on a variety of subjects. Many of these statements were given wide publicity by the Democrats. In the early 2010s, Trump had referred to former President John McCain's foreign policies as "misguided, ridiculous, and a step in the wrong direction", and said they were a "giveaway to America's enemies." Moreover, he criticized McCain's military background, claiming that he was not a hero and that he did not deserve credit for his experiences while in Vietnamese captivity. McCain never forgave Trump for this; Trump also criticized McCain's policies relating to inflation, corporate taxation, and environmental issues.

In December 2013, Trump told a news conference that Mexicans and others from Latin America were "rapists, criminals, bringing drugs and crime across the border." When criticized by Florida Senator Marco Rubio four months later, Trump made snide remarks about "flooding Miami" and "sending Little Marco and his homies back across to Havana, where they belong", comments which outraged Cubans, and were considered disgraceful by many Americans. This came back to haunt him, as the Rutherford campaign aired an ad accusing him of disregarding whole segments of the American population, as did comments Trump made denigrating minorities, attacking journalists and others, and objectifying women. He also proposed abandoning all exploration efforts by NASA into outer space, saying that America should not waste time "chasing space ghosts", a viewpoint seen as ridiculous by many Americans. In regards to foreign policy, Trump criticized the President's negotiation efforts in Iran, called for an active military intervention in Africa (opposed by many Americans), and even talked of using nuclear weapons against North Korea.

Trump was also hurt by the reluctance of many other Republicans to support him. Governors John Kasich of Ohio and Scott Walker of Wisconsin refused to endorse Trump and did not campaign for him. Former President George H.W. Bush commented negatively about Trump to his associates and family, urging all Americans to stand up against "hatred and bigotry" and expressing strong disagreement with Trump's platform. He too refused to endorse Trump. Other prominent Republicans, such as former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada, and House Minority Leader Paul Ryan of Wisconsin also refused to endorse or campaign for Trump; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky remained silent about the Republican nominee. Many Republican publications, such as the New Hampshire Union Leader, the Arizona Republic, the Houston Chronicle, The Dallas Morning-News, and the Columbus Dispatch, among others, endorsed Rutherford; in fact, of the nation's top 100 newspapers, not a single one backed Trump. Other Republican outlets, such as the Detroit News, the Chicago Tribune, and the National Review, endorsed Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, former Governor of New Mexico.

Whereas former Republican Presidents Bush and McCain refused to endorse Trump and did not campaign for him, Rutherford received the strong support of former Democratic Presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Al Gore, all of whom campaigned vigorously on his behalf.

Ads and slogans
Rutherford positioned himself as a moderate and succeeded in portraying Trump as a extremist. As mentioned above, Trump's habit about making wild and unsubstantiated statements concerning foreign policy, economics, society, and the like, as well as his unpopular political positions, could be turned against him. The President's surrogates warned that the businessman, if elected, would reverse the progress made to restore American economic strength. Rutherford also touted his policies in relation to taxation, the federal budget, and corporate regulation, policies which won him the support of many independents and moderates. On September 7, 2016, the President's campaign, responding to allegations of Trump's bias against Jews, Muslims, and Mormons, among other religious minority groups, launched what became the most famous advertisement of the election: "The American Mosaic". This mosaic depicted Americans of all racial, ethnic, social, and religious backgrounds, was decked in patriotic themes, and touted the concept of the "melting pot", so classic to American history and thought. Another Rutherford ad, "The Reasonable Voters", showed interview clips of various, everyday Americans, expressing their disgust with Trump's comments, his ideology, and his voting record. Voters increasingly viewed Trump as a fringe candidate; many Republicans considered him to be not a true successor to Ronald Reagan. Trump's slogan, "Make America Great Again" was successfully twisted by Rutherford's campaign into "Take America Down Again". Other Rutherford slogans touted the themes of "America Forward!", "Move on with WJR", and "When you vote straight (for Rutherford), you vote right."

Three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate were held during the campaign. The presidential debates were at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York (September 26); Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri (October 9); and the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, in Las Vegas, Nevada (October 19). The vice-presidential debate was held on October 4 at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. Rutherford scored a decisive win in all three debates, exposing Trump as a fraud and weakening his populist appeal. In the vice-presidential debate, VP Ford similarly routed Trump's running mate, Pence. A Gallup poll of October 22, 2016, revealed that 73% of Americans believed that Rutherford was more competent and informed than Trump; 64% disagreed with Trump's foreign and economic policy views; and 60% expressed strong dismay with his statements and prior record.

Rutherford led Trump in all opinion polls by huge margins throughout the entire campaign.

Results
The election was held on November 8, 2016. Rutherford beat Trump in the general election, winning over 63% of the popular vote, the highest percentage since the popular vote first became widespread in 1824. In the end, Trump won only the traditionally Republican states of Wyoming and Oklahoma in the West, along with the 3rd district of Nebraska. This was the worst showing for the Republicans in the South since the presidency of Harry S. Truman.



Trump's 11 electoral votes were the fewest for any Republican presidential candidate since William Howard Taft had earned 8 in his failed reelection bid in 1912. Rutherford achieved the best performance of any candidate in the Electoral College in history, surpassing the records of Franklin Roosevelt in 1936, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Ronald Reagan in 1984. Moreover, Trump's performance in the popular vote (34.1%) was the worst for any major-party candidate since Democratic nominee John W. Davis had earned just 28.8% in the election of 1924.

Rutherford became the first Democrat in 52 years to win the states of Utah, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska, and only the second Democrat, since Jimmy Carter in 1976, to carry the state of Arkansas. Nevertheless, he failed to obtain an absolute majority there, in what had been one of Romney's best states in 2012. The same occurred in West Virginia, which went Democratic for the first time since 1996, and where Trump was popular with many of the state's working-class voters.

Of the 3,144 counties, independent municipalities, and parishes making returns, Rutherford won in 2,505 (79.67%) while Trump carried 639 (20.33%).

The Rutherford landslide defeated many conservative Republican congressmen, giving him a majority that could enact more of his legislation.

Geography of results












Close states
Margin of victory less than 5% (21 electoral votes):
 * 1) West Virginia, 1.52%
 * 2) Wyoming, 1.91%
 * 3) Arkansas, 2.70%
 * 4) Oklahoma, 4.08%

Margin of victory over 5%, but less than 10% (32 electoral votes):
 * 1) Alabama, 5.61%
 * 2) Kentucky, 5.93%
 * 3) Tennessee, 6.20%
 * 4) Idaho, 9.23%
 * 5) Nebraska, 9.97%

Electoral records

 * This was the last election prior to the admission of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and the penultimate election before the District of Columbia received full congressional representation.
 * The states of Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota were carried by a Democrat for the first time since 1964. Alabama was carried for the first time since 1976. Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia were carried for the first time since 1996.
 * This was the first time since 1936 that Josephine County, Oregon, Douglas County, Nevada, and Ada County, Idaho voted for a Democrat.
 * This was the first time in history that Ogle County, Illinois, voted Democratic, and the first time Lee County, Illinois did so since 1852.
 * Rutherford became the first Democrat in history to garner more than 70% of the vote in California, Maryland, New York, and Vermont. He also garnered over 70% in Hawaii and Rhode Island.
 * This was the first time since 1972 that the nation's most populous states were carried by a single candidate, by double-digit margins. Rutherford garnered over 60% in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, and Washington, and won in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona by 17-20 percentage points.
 * This was the first time since 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won every single state that had constituted the Confederacy.
 * This was the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won white voters by a double-digit margin (2012 had seen a 2-pt. margin of victory for Rutherford among this group). Rutherford won 55% of whites, to Trump's 43%.
 * This was the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won Mormon voters, Rutherford taking 53% of this demographic. This was a key factor in his victory in Utah, for Mormons provided 63% of his total vote there. In 2012, Romney had won Mormons by a margin of 4-1.
 * Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earned 15% of the vote in Utah, the only state where a third-party candidate broke double-digits. This, and Rutherford's victory in the state, was attributed to their dislike for Trump, fueled by his alleged animus against them and their objections to his moral character and business history.
 * Rutherford won 58% of college-educated whites and 54% of non-college educated whites. He won 58% of white women and 53% of white men. He was the first Democrat to carry both college and non-college educated voters, both among whites and in general, since Johnson.
 * Rutherford won a record 84% of the non-white vote, including 95% of African Americans, 77% of Hispanics, 77% of Asians, and 62% of others.
 * Rutherford won every county in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Alaska, and Hawaii.
 * This was the first time since 1924 that every county in New England voted for a single presidential candidate, and the first time in history that a Democrat swept the region's counties.
 * Rutherford won 404 congressional districts; Trump 31.
 * Rutherford won the white vote in 39 states. Trump won it in 11: Wyoming and Oklahoma (which he carried), along with Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. He also won whites in Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, though Rutherford won whites in the 1st and 2nd districts, and in the state as a whole. Trump won whites in every former Confederate state except for Florida and Virginia. Rutherford carried whites in all states outside of the Confederate South (except Wyoming and Oklahoma), including in every border state, and of course, in the former Confederate states of Florida and Virginia. In most Southern states, Rutherford won by dominating among blacks and other minorities, carrying college-educated whites, and reducing Trump's margin among non college-educated whites.