United States House of Representatives elections, 2016

The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 8, 2016, to elect representatives for all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting members for the District of Columbia and territories of the United States were also elected. These elections coincided with the reelection of President W.C. Rutherford. Rutherford's landslide victory over Thomas P. Leach allowed for his Democratic Party to gain a neat of 38 seats from the Republican Party, giving them a nearly two-thirds majority in the House. This was the largest House majority held by either party since 1976.

Elections were held on the same day for the U.S. Senate, many governors, and other state and local elections.

Overall analysis
The Democrats, on the strength of President Rutherford's landslide victory, scored a net gain of 38 House seats for their highest total since 1976-when Jimmy Carter narrowly lost to President Gerald Ford. No Democratic incumbent lost in 2016, repeating an occurrence which had been seen in 2012, when Rutherford was elected to his first term in office.

Republican National Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel had admitted on October 29, 2016, that there would be a 15 to 20 seat loss for her party. Republican strength was only 151 members in the new Congress, their lowest total in 40 years. Many of the Republican incumbents who went down to defeat were staunch conservatives from formerly "Safe Republican" seats. GOP incumbents who chose to remain aloof from their party's Presidential nominee generally proved to be the most difficult for Democrats to defeat.

Of the 435 Representatives who won in the November 8 election, 344 were currently incumbents (224 Democrats, 120 Republicans) and 91 were newcomers (60 Democrats and 31 Republicans). Five newcomers had served in the House before-four were Democrats and one Republican.

Coattail Effects
Presidential coattails were a major factor in 2016 House elections, with President Rutherford aiding Democrats in all sections of the country. Republican Presidential nominee Thomas P. Leach had extremely limited coattails, and his poor showing contributed more then any other factor to Republican defeats throughout the country. In the South, President Rutherford's strength unseated several incumbent Republicans and netted a number of open seats for the Democrats. These included 1 seat in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Virginia each, 2 seats in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas each, and 3 seats in Georgia.

In other areas of the country, Rutherford's strength and Leach's weakness enabled the Democrats to gain 3 seats in Ohio, 2 seats in California, Iowa, Illinois, and Pennsylvania each, and 1 seat each in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

Republican Losses and Victories
Republican moderates or liberals came through the election with only a minor drop in number. Among these Republicans, the most startling victories, in view of the Democratic presidential sweep, were achieved by Reps. Lawrence R. Wisener and Virginia Fuller in California; Mike Coffman in Colorado; Bruce Poliquin in Maine; Roscoe Bartlett in Maryland; Jon Golnick in Massachusetts; Darin LaHood and Adam Kinzinger in Illinois; Erik Paulsen in Minnesota; Frank Guinta in New Hampshire; Christopher Smith and Tom MacArthur in New Jersey; John Faso, Richard Hanna, Tom Reed, David Bellavia, Nan Hayworth, Frank Scaturro, and C. Scott Vanderhoof in New York; and Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania. Leach lost in the districts of all these Representatives.

On the other hand, staunch conservative Republicans, suffering from their close identification with Leach, found their number greatly reduced by the Democratic sweep. Among those defeated were: Reps. Tim Griffin (Arkansas); Jeff Stone (California); John Mica (Florida); Buddy Carter and Doug Collins (Georgia); John Shimkus (Illinois); Rod Blum and David Young (Iowa); Raul Labrador (Idaho); Clay Higgins (Louisiana); Mike Bishop (Michigan); Blaine Luetkemeyer (Missouri); Jim Hagedorn (Minnesota); David Rouzer and Mike Walker (North Carolina); David Joyce and Michael Turner (Ohio); Steve Russell (Oklahoma); Mike Kelly and Lloyd Smucker (Pennsylvania); Ralph Norman (South Carolina); Jodey Arrington (Texas); and Paul Ryan (Wisconsin).

Among defeated moderate Republican incumbents were: Jeff Denham (California); Andrew Roraback (Connecticut); David Jolly (Florida); Chuck Brewer (Indiana); Elise Stefanik (New York); Crescent Hardy (Nevada); Will Hurd (Texas); and Scott Taylor (Virginia). Defeated Republican incumbents who could be classified as lying between the staunch conservatives and moderates included: Scott Tipton (Colorado) and Mark E. Lieon (Illinois).

The defeat of such conservatives as Griffin, Mica, Carter, Collins, Shimkus, Labrador, Higgins, Bishop, Luektemyer, Hagedorn, Rouzer, Walker, Turner, Kelly, Norman, Arrington, and Ryan was one of the ironies of the 2016 election. They were among 54 Republican Representatives who June 17 signed the following statement: "We are convinced the nomination of Sen. Thomas Leach will result in substantial increases in Republican membership in both houses of Congress." Three other incumbents who signed the statement did not seek re-election to the House but saw their districts go Democratic: Jody Hice (Georgia); Andy Barr (Kentucky), and Jim Renacci (Ohio). These three candidates, who had retired from the House to run for the U.S. Senate, lost their bids for higher office. With the exceptions of Alabama and Mississippi, President Rutherford carried every one of the states from which 49 signers came. Of the signers who managed to win re-election, 26 saw their margin of victory reduced, and only 6 increased their percentage from 2014.

On the other hand, four of the 34 incumbent Republican Representatives endorsed October 28, 2016, by the Committee to Support Moderate Republicans were defeated: Roraback of Connecticut; Jolly of Florida; Brewer of Indiana; and Hurd of Texas. Apparently sensing the danger to them in a Leach nomination, all had opposed his nomination for the Presidency.

Another factor that stood out from the election results was that 11 of the 21 Republicans outside the South who opposed final passage of the Criminal Justice Reform Act were defeated: Stone (California); Shimkus (Illinois); Blum and Young (Iowa); Labrador (Idaho); Luetkemeyer (Missouri); Hagedorn (Minnesota); Joyce and Turner (Ohio); Kelly (Pennsylvania); and Ryan (Wisconsin).

37 of the 56 Southern Republicans opposed the Criminal Justice Reform Act, and nine of them were defeated: Griffin (Arkansas); Mica (Florida); Carter and Collins (Georgia); Higgins (Louisiana); Rouzer and Walker (North Carolina); Norman (South Carolina); and Arrington (Texas). The one Southern Democrat who opposed the Act, Jim Hood (Mississippi), won re-election. Coincidentally, his district was one of just three Democratic-held districts in the entire country that Senator Leach carried (the other two were AL-03 and AL-05 in Alabama). Hood was also the only Democrat in the entire country to vote against the Act.