United States House of Representatives elections, 2016



The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 8, 2016, to elect representatives for all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting members for the District of Columbia and territories of the United States were also elected. These elections coincided with the reelection of President W.C. Rutherford. Rutherford's landslide victory over Thomas P. Leach allowed for his Democratic Party to gain a net of 38 seats from the Republican Party, giving them a nearly two-thirds majority in the House. This was the largest House majority held by either party since 1976.

Elections were held on the same day for the U.S. Senate, many governors, and other state and local offices.

Overall analysis
The Democrats, on the strength of President Rutherford's landslide victory, scored a net gain of 38 House seats for their highest total since 1976-when Jimmy Carter narrowly lost to President Gerald Ford. No Democratic incumbent lost in 2016, an occurrence which had not been seen since 2010, when Democrats took back control of the House of Representatives.

Republican National Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel had admitted on October 29, 2016, that there would be a 15 to 20 seat loss for her party. Republican strength was only 152 members in the new Congress, their lowest total in 40 years. Many of the Republican incumbents who went down to defeat were staunch conservatives from formerly "Safe Republican" seats. GOP incumbents who chose to remain aloof from their party's Presidential nominee generally proved to be the most difficult for Democrats to defeat.

Of the 435 Representatives who won in the November 8 election, 349 were currently incumbents (221 Democrats, 128 Republicans) and 86 were newcomers (62 Democrats and 24 Republicans). Five newcomers had served in the House before-four were Democrats and one Republican.

Coattail Effects
Presidential coattails were a major factor in 2016 House elections, with President Rutherford aiding Democrats in all sections of the country. Republican Presidential nominee Thomas P. Leach had extremely limited coattails, and his poor showing contributed more then any other factor to Republican defeats throughout the country. In the South, President Rutherford's strength unseated one incumbent Republican in Maryland, one in Kentucky, one in Oklahoma, two in Texas, and two in Virginia.

In other areas of the country, Rutherford's strength and Leach's weakness enabled the Democrats to gain 6 seats in New York, 4 seats in California, 3 seats in Ohio, 2 seats in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennyslvania each, and one seat each in Connecticut, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Nevada, and Oregon.

Republican Losses and Victories
Republican moderates or liberals came through the election with only a minor drop in number. Among these Republicans, the most startling victories, in view of the Democratic presidential sweep, were achieved by Reps. Carlos Curbelo and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida; Adam Kinzinger in Illinois; Jon Golnick and Mark Alliegro in Massachusetts; Paul Mitchell in Michigan; Matthew Erickson and Erik Paulsen in Minnesota; Frank Guinta in New Hampshire; Tom MacArthur and Chris Smith in New Jersey; Steve Pearce in New Mexico; Frank Scaturro, C. Scott Vanderhoof, Elise Stefanik, and Tom Reed in New York; Bob Gibbs in Ohio; Greg Walden in Oregon; Glenn Thompson, Brian Fitzpatrick, and Bill Shuster in Pennsylvania; Lamar Smith in Texas; and David McKinley in West Virginia. Leach lost in the districts of all these Representatives.

On the other hand, staunch conservative Republicans, suffering from their close identification with Leach, found their number greatly reduced by the Democratic sweep. Among those defeated were: Reps. Brian Bilbray (California); John Shimkus (Illinois); Rod Blum and David Young (Iowa); Raúl Labrador (Idaho); Roscoe Bartlett (Maryland); Mike Bishop (Michigan); Jim Hagedorn (Minnesota); Chris Collins and Jack Martins (New York); David Joyce and Michael Turner (Ohio); Steve Russell (Oklahoma); Mike Kelly and Scott Perry (Pennsylvania); and Jodey Arrington (Texas).

Among defeated moderate Republican incumbents were: Abel Maldonado and Jeff Gorrell (California); Mike Coffman (Colorado); Andrew Roraback (Connecticut); David Jolly (Florida); Chuck Brewer (Indiana); Crescent Hardy (Nevada); and Will Hurd (Texas). Defeated Republican incumbents who could be classified as lying between the staunch conservatives and moderates included: Scott Tipton (Colorado), Mark E. Lieon (Illinois), Anne Northup (Kentucky), and Brian Heinrich (Oregon).

The defeat of such conservatives as Bilbray, Shimkus, Blum, Young, Labrador, Bartlett, Bishop, Hagedorn, Collins, Martins, Joyce, Turner, Russell, Kelly, Perry, and Arrington was one of the ironies of the 2016 election. They were among 54 Republican Representatives who (June 17, 2016), signed the following statement: "We are convinced the nomination of Sen. Thomas Leach will result in substantial increases in Republican membership in both houses of Congress." Two other incumbents who signed the statement did not seek re-election to the House but saw their districts go Democratic: Jeff Taylor (California) and Jim Renacci (Ohio). Renacci lost his bid for the U.S. Senate. With the exceptions of Alabama and Mississippi, President Rutherford carried every one of the states from which the signers came. Of the signers who managed to win re-election, 26 saw their margin of victory reduced, and only 6 increased their percentage from 2014.

On the other hand, four of the 34 incumbent Republican Representatives endorsed October 28, 2016, by the Committee to Support Moderate Republicans were defeated: Roraback of Connecticut; Jolly of Florida; Brewer of Indiana; and Hurd of Texas. Apparently sensing the danger to them in a Leach nomination, all had opposed his nomination for the Presidency.

Another factor that stood out from the election results was that 10 of the 14 Republicans outside the South who opposed final passage of the Criminal Justice Reform Act were defeated: Shimkus (Illinois); Labrador (Idaho); Hagedorn (Minnesota); Collins, Faso, and Martins (New York); Joyce and Turner (Ohio); and Kelly and Perry (Pennsylvania).

18 of the 64 Southern Republicans opposed the Criminal Justice Reform Act, and one of them (Arrington of Texas) was defeated. The one Southern Democrat who opposed the Act, Jim Hood (Mississippi), won re-election. Coincidentally, his district was one of just three Democratic-held districts in the entire country that Senator Leach carried (the other two were AL-03 and AL-05 in Alabama). Hood was also the only Democrat in the entire country to vote against the Act.

Democratic Victories and Losses
Democrats gained about twice as many seats as had been expected in pre-election speculation. Part of their net gain of 38 seats came from turnabouts in nearly solid Republican state delegations. In Iowa, led by President Rutherford, Democrats increased the number of House seats from one to three, leaving Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) the lone GOP Representative still in office. Feenstra won re-election by 83,726 votes (61.23%) in IA-04 (President Rutherford won the district 59-41% over Senator Leach). Democrats flipped Republican delegation majorities in Colorado, Michigan, Oklahoma, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, and tied them in Ohio, Idaho, and Nevada.

The largest numerical gain for the Democrats came in New York, where they gained six seats. President Rutherford's record 2,876,241 vote-plurality was the chief factor credited with the surprising Republican loss in the state.

Regional Breakdown
The new House party line-up for the nation's four geographical regions: (Previous line-up in parentheses)

Democrats scored a 11-seat gain in the Midwest to achieve numerical superiority in that region for the first time since their 2010 sweep. Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney's strength throughout much of the Midwest in 2012 had enabled Republicans to recapture many of the seats they had lost.

Democrats picked up 11 new seats in the East and 6 seats in the West. They also gained 8 seats in the South, further expanding the majority which they had held there previously.

Many of the Democratic gains may prove temporary because a Democratic Presidential sweep equaling the magnitude of 2016's will be difficult to duplicate. Nevertheless, Democratic control of the House appears assured for the near future. Republicans would have to gain 66 seats in the 2018 elections to regain control of the House which they last held in 2010. Republicans have controlled the House for 13 of the 26 years since 1990.

Party Support
Only two Democratic Representatives bolted their party's Presidential ticket to support Leach, and both were in danger of losing their seniority and committee assignments. Three Republican Representatives, while not supporting Rutherford, refused to endorse their party's presidential candidate-Jon Golnick (Massachusetts), Ryan Costello (Pennsylvania), and C. Scott Vanderhoof (New York). All three won re-election (Vanderhoof was unopposed), and in the cases of Costello and Golnick, their re-election could be attributed partly to their refusal to endorse Leach. Their seniority and committee assignments were not jeopardized, however.

Democratic House liberals, prior to the election, warned that they would seek to strip Democratic defectors of their committee assignments and seniority.

Those affected were veteran Rep. Jim Hood (D-Mississippi) and freshman Rep. Steve Raby (D-Alabama). Hood was second ranking Democrat on the House Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee and fifth ranking Democrat on the House District of Columbia Committee. Raby was third from bottom in rank on the House Post Office and Civil Service Committee.

Incumbents not seeking re-election
44 Representatives declined to seek re-election in 2016.

Democrats
18 Democrats retired.


 * 1) Alabama 5: Parker Griffith: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 2) Arizona 1: Ann Kirkpatrick: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 3) California 34: Xavier Becerra: Retired.
 * 4) California 44: Janice Hahn: To run for Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. (Won)
 * 5) California 46: Loretta Sanchez: Retired.
 * 6) Delaware At-large: John Carney: To run for Governor of Delaware. (Won)
 * 7) Florida 9: Alan Grayson: Retired.
 * 8) Illinois 8: Tammy Duckworth: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 9) Indiana 2: Barron Hill: To run for U.S. Senate. (Withdrew)
 * 10) Maine 1: Chellie Pingree: Retired.
 * 11) Maryland 4: Donna Edwards: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 12) Maryland 8: Chris Van Hollen: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 13) Michigan 13: John Conyers: Retired.
 * 14) New York 13: Charles Rangel: Retired.
 * 15) North Dakota At-large: Earl Pomeroy: To run for Governor of North Dakota. (Won)
 * 16) Pennsylvania 18: Jack Machek: Retired.
 * 17) Texas 15: Ruben Hinojosa: Retired.
 * 18) Washington 7: Jim McDermott: Retired.

Republicans
26 Republicans retired.


 * 1) Alabama 1: Bradley Byrne: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 2) Arizona 2: Martha McSally: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 3) California 20: Jeff Taylor: Retired.
 * 4) Florida 1: Jeff Miller: Retired.
 * 5) Florida 4: Ander Crenshaw: Retired.
 * 6) Florida 18: John Cassidy: Retired.
 * 7) Florida 19: Curt Clawson: Retired.
 * 8) Georgia 3: Lynn Westmoreland: Retired.
 * 9) Georgia 14: Jody Hice: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 10) Indiana 3: Marlin Stutzman: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 11) Indiana 4: Todd Rokita: To run for Vice-President. (Lost)
 * 12) Indiana 9: Todd Young: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 13) Michigan 10: Candace Miller: Retired.
 * 14) Minnesota 2: John Kline: Retired.
 * 15) Nevada 3: Joe Heck: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 16) New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo: Retired.
 * 17) New York 22: Richard Hanna: Retired.
 * 18) New York 24: John Katko: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 19) Ohio 12: Pat Tiberi: Retired.
 * 20) Ohio 16: Jim Renacci: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 21) Oklahoma 1: Jim Bridenstine: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 22) Pennsylvania 16: Joe Pitts: Retired.
 * 23) Tennessee 8: Stephen Fincher: Retired.
 * 24) Virginia 11: Tom Davis: Retired.
 * 25) Wisconsin 8: Reid Ribble: Retired.
 * 26) Wyoming At-large: Cynthia Lummis: Retired.

Democrats

 * 1) California 17: Mike Honda lost renomination to Ro Khanna.
 * 2) California 43: Maxine Waters lost renomination to Miguel Zuniga.
 * 3) Florida 5: Corrine Brown lost renomination to Al Lawson.
 * 4) Florida 23: Debbie Wasserman Schultz lost renomination to Tim Canova.
 * 5) Pennsylvania 2: Chaka Fattah lost renomination to Dwight Evans. Subsequently, resigned on June 23, 2016.

Republicans

 * 1) California 48: Dana Rohrabacher lost renomination to Scott Baugh.
 * 2) Colorado 5: Doug Lamborn lost renomination to Owen Hill.
 * 3) Kansas 1: Tim Huelskamp lost renomination to Roger Marshall.

Democrats
Every Democratic incumbent won reelection in 2016.

Republicans
32 Republicans lost reelection to Democrats.
 * 1) California 24: Abel Maldonado (R) lost to Salud Carbajal (D).
 * 2) California 26: Jeff Gorrell (R) lost to Julia Brownley (D).
 * 3) California 52: Brian Bilbray (R) lost to Scott Peters (D).
 * 4) Colorado 3: Scott Tipton (R) lost to Diane Mitsch Bush (D).
 * 5) Colorado 6: Mike Coffman (R) lost to Jason Crow (D).
 * 6) Connecticut 5: Andrew Roraback (R) lost to Elizabeth Esty (D).
 * 7) Florida 13: David Jolly (R) lost to Charlie Crist (D).
 * 8) Idaho 1: Raul Labrador (R) lost to Cristina McNeil (D).
 * 9) Illinois 15: John Shimkus (R) lost to Eric Thorsland (D).
 * 10) Illinois 17: Mark E. Lieon (R) lost to Cheri Bustos (D).
 * 11) Indiana 7: Chuck Brewer (R) lost to Joe Hogsett (D).
 * 12) Iowa 1: Rod Blum (R) lost to Abby Fineknauer (D).
 * 13) Iowa 3: David Young (R) lost to Cindy Axne (D).
 * 14) Maine 2: Bruce Poliquin (R) lost to Jared Golden (D).
 * 15) Maryland 6: Roscoe Bartlett (R) lost to John Delaney (D).
 * 16) Michigan 3: Justin Amash (R) lost to Douglas Smith (D).
 * 17) Michigan 8: Mike Bishop (R) lost to Elissa Slotkin (D).
 * 18) Minnesota 1: Jim Hagedorn (R) lost to Tim Walz (D).
 * 19) Nevada 4: Crescent Hardy (R) lost to Steven Horsford (D).
 * 20) New York 3: Jack Martins (R) lost to Tom Suozzi (D).
 * 21) New York 18: Nan Hayworth (R) lost to Sean Patrick Maloney (D).
 * 22) New York 19: John Faso (R) lost to Antonio Delgado (D).
 * 23) New York 27: Chris Collins (R) lost to Diana Kastenbaum (D).
 * 24) Oregon 1: Brian Heinrich (R) lost to Suzanne Bonamici (D).
 * 25) Ohio 10: Michael Turner (R) lost to Sharon Neuhardt (D).
 * 26) Ohio 14: David Joyce (R) lost to Michael Wager (D).
 * 27) Oklahoma 5: Steve Russell (R) lost to Tom Guild (D).
 * 28) Pennsylvania 2: Mike Kelly (R) lost to Kathy Dahlkemper (D).
 * 29) Pennsylvania 3: Scott Perry (R) lost to Joshua Burkholder (D).
 * 30) Texas 19: Jodey Arrington (R) lost to Andy Wilson (D).
 * 31) Texas 23: Will Hurd (R) lost to Rick Trevino (D).
 * 32) Virginia 8: Kyle E. McSlarrow (R) lost to Don Beyer (D).

Democratic seats
All Democratic nominees in Democratic-held open seats won this year.

Republican seats
Six open seats were lost.
 * 1) California 20: Jeff Taylor (R) retired. Seat was won by Jimmy Panetta (D).
 * 2) New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo (R) retired. Seat was won by Jeff Van Drew (D).
 * 3) New York 22: Richard Hanna (R) retired. Seat was won by Anthony Brindisi (D).
 * 4) New York 24: John Katko (R) retired to run for U.S. Senate. Seat was won by Colleen Deacon (D).
 * 5) Ohio 16: Jim Renacci (R) retired to run for U.S. Senate. Seat was won by Peter Crossland (D).
 * 6) Virginia 11: Tom Davis (R) retired. Seat was won by Gerry Connolly (D).

Close races
Blue denotes House races won by Democrats while Red denotes those won by Republicans. Italics denote a seat that flipped parties.

Seats where the margin of victory was under 1%:


 * 1) Maine 2nd, 0.1%
 * 2) Massachusetts 9th, 0.2%
 * 3) New York 18th, 0.4%
 * 4) Illinois 15th, 0.6%
 * 5) Texas 23rd, 0.8%

Seats where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:


 * 1) Michigan 3rd, 1.0%
 * 2) Nevada 3rd, 1.0%
 * 3) Connecticut 5th, 1.1%
 * 4) Iowa 3rd, 1.2%
 * 5) Colorado 6th, 1.8%
 * 6) California 17th, 2.0%
 * 7) Minnesota 2nd, 2.4%
 * 8) New Hampshire 1st, 2.7%
 * 9) Florida 7th, 3.0%
 * 10) Massachusetts 6th, 3.0%
 * 11) Nevada 4th, 3.0%
 * 12) Colorado 3rd, 3.2%
 * 13) New Jersey 3rd, 3.6%
 * 14) Florida 13th, 3.8%
 * 15) California 18th, 4.0%
 * 16) Virginia 11th, 4.0%
 * 17) New York 19th, 4.2%
 * 18) Indiana 9th, 4.7%
 * 19) Maryland 6th, 4.8%

Seats where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:
 * 1) Florida 26th, 5.0%
 * 2) New York 27th, 5.0%
 * 3) Kentucky 3rd, 5.2%
 * 4) Ohio 16th, 5.2%
 * 5) California 20th, 5.4%
 * 6) New York 3rd, 5.6%
 * 7) Pennsylvania 3rd, 5.8%
 * 8) Arizona 2nd, 6.0%
 * 9) Idaho 1st, 6.0%
 * 10) New York 6th, 6.0%
 * 11) Ohio 4th, 6.0%
 * 12) South Dakota At-large, 6.2%
 * 13) California 24th, 6.8%
 * 14) Illinois 17th, 7.0%
 * 15) California 19th, 7.2%
 * 16) New Mexico 2nd, 7.2%
 * 17) New York 4th, 7.4%
 * 18) Nebraska 2nd, 7.5%
 * 19) Indiana 7th, 8.0%
 * 20) Florida 18th, 8.2%
 * 21) Montana At-large, 8.2%
 * 22) Iowa 1st, 8.4%
 * 23) Pennsylvania 8th, 8.8%
 * 24) West Virginia 1st, 9.0%
 * 25) Michigan 10th, 9.1%
 * 26) New Jersey 7th, 9.1%
 * 27) Virginia 8th, 9.1%
 * 28) New Jersey 3rd, 9.8%