Talk:The 2016 Election Results

This page includes additional notes on the 2016 Election Results.

Presidential Vote by Demographic
Leach suffered the worst loss of any presidential candidate from either party by demographic. Rutherford was the first candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win every racial demographic by double digits, and the first since John Glenn in 1984 to win both genders by double digits as well. 74 percent of the electorate was white in 2016; 26 percent was nonwhite. Rutherford won the white vote (55 percent), defeating Leach among this group by ten percentage points. This was the highest percentage that had been earned by any Democrat since Johnson in 1964. Although whites still weighed in as the most Republican group in the country, Rutherford's victory nevertheless proved a major factor in molding the election results. He won white women (57 percent) and white men (53 percent). Rutherford's victory cut across educational lines, as he won a commanding 58 percent of non-college educated whites and a narrower 52 percent majority among college-educated whites.

On a state-by-state basis, Rutherford won whites in 39 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Rutherford did best in the Northeast, where white voters in general had gravitated strongly to the Democratic Party over the course of the preceding four decades. Leach won less than 40 percent of the white vote in Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Pennsylvania, less than 30 percent in Massachusetts and Vermont, and less than 20 percent in Rhode Island. His best state was New Jersey, but even there, he obtained only 42 percent, losing whites to Rutherford by seventeen percentage points. The liberal Northeast recoiled most strongly at the Leach campaign, with his negative comments about their way of life, his policy proposals, and most critically, his vote against the Criminal Justice Reform Act, which had received near-unanimous support from the region's congressional delegation and was strongly supported by most of the region's electorate.

In the Border States, Rutherford put up a commanding performance. Leach tied the President among whites in minority-heavy Maryland, but did far worse in Missouri (39 percent), Kentucky (38 percent), Delaware (38 percent), and West Virginia (32 percent). Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, in particular, recoiled at Leach's views on rural development programs, Medicaid expansion, energy subsidies, farm subsidies, and federal education grants and strongly supported the President's New Frontier policy agenda. Maryland and Delaware were repelled by Leach's foreign policy views and his stances on Social Security and the federal bureaucracy. Moreover, Leach won just 13 percent of the white vote in the heavily Democratic District of Columbia, where Rutherford received 92.46% of the votes cast.

Similar concerns were prevalent in the Midwest. Leach won less than forty percent of the white vote in Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan. He won 43 percent in Illinois, 41 percent in Ohio, and 40 percent in Wisconsin. There were a few bright spots for him however. Leach's best Great Lakes State was Indiana, which, coincidentally, had been the only Great Lakes State won by Romney in 2012, and was the most Republican of those states. Leach obtained 48% of the white vote there, losing it to Rutherford by just four percentage points (he lost Indiana as a whole by twelve percentage points). Leach obtained more than 40 percent in North Dakota and South Dakota, and he obtained 49% of the white vote in Kansas. Rutherford won an extremely narrow majority of whites in Nebraska (50 percent), the closest state in the region, which he carried overall with 52.61% of the popular vote.

In the West, voters were pulled to the Rutherford ticket by a variety of concerns, those over farm subsidies, energy subsidies, rural development programs, and land conservation programs being the most pressing. Leach's calls to dismantle environmental protections and to abolish agencies such as the Department of the Interior were also received very negatively in this tourism-dependent region. Nevertheless, due to the Republican lean of many of the states in this region, and due to Leach's own status as a Westerner (Arizona), he did better here than in either the Northeast or Midwest. Leach obtained 40 percent or less of the white vote in Alaska (which had one of the largest swings to Rutherford, who gained 25 percentage points there compared to his performance in 2012 against Romney), Colorado (a environmental and energy-conscious state with moderate to liberal social views and a well-educated electorate), New Mexico (with a large number of Catholic and populist rural voters), and Oregon (with its large technology-dependent sector, that recoiled at Leach's foreign and trade policy stances). Leach obtained just 23 percent of the white vote in Hawaii, one of the most Democratic states in the nation, with a liberal and open-minded electorate.

Leach won over 40 percent in all of the region's remaining states. He effectively tied Rutherford with whites in Idaho. He won 49 percent in Nevada, 45 percent in Utah, 43 percent in California and Wyoming, 41 percent in Montana, and 40 percent in Washington. Idaho was Rutherford's closest win in the country in 2016; he earned 50.21% of the white vote, and carried Idaho with 50.92% of the vote overall, beating Leach by a margin of 1.83 percentage points. Leach outperformed his national averages in Nevada, possibly due to the greater conservatism evident among its whites and to his proximity as a Arizonan Senator. Utah had been Romney's second-best state in 2012, behind only Mississippi, and Mormons were a traditionally Republican bloc, though many of them abandoned Leach because of his energy and social views. Wyoming was also a traditionally Republican state. California, Montana, and Washington, on their part, possessed more substantive Republican partisan bases. Leach won the white vote outright in his home state of Arizona, carrying it with 57 percent. Rutherford's margin of victory was provided by non-white voters; he carried Arizona by 2.30 percentage points.

The South was Leach's best region in the country, both in terms of overall performance and in terms of the white vote. In fact, of the 11 former Confederate states and Oklahoma, Rutherford won the white vote in only two: Oklahoma (52 percent) and his home state of Texas (54 percent). In every other Southern state that he carried, the margin of victory was provided by non-white voters. Blacks were critical throughout the region, and Hispanics pulled their weight primarily in Florida. Nevertheless, Rutherford did come close to winning whites in Arkansas (50 percent) and Tennessee (48 percent); he won these two states with 56.06 percent and 55.50 percent of the vote respectively. Rutherford pulled 47 percent in Florida, 44 percent in North Carolina, 41 percent in Virginia and South Carolina, 40 percent in Georgia, and 38 percent in Louisiana. Leach was strongly supported by white voters in Alabama and Mississippi, the only two states that he won: he obtained 69 percent of the white vote in Alabama and a whopping 92 percent in Mississippi. Leach won Alabama by 4.90 percentage points and Mississippi by 18.88 percentage points. Rutherford's stronger performance among whites in Alabama, combined with his overwhelming support from minority voters, was enough to keep Leach's win there to a single-digit margin.

As expected of a Democrat, Rutherford did exceptionally well with minority voters, carrying each demographic by record margins. He did best with African Americans, a fiercely Democratic voting bloc (94 percent), and posted record performances with Hispanics (73 percent), Asians (71 percent), and Other voters (60 percent). Rutherford won 82 percent of the overall nonwhite vote, the highest percentage won by a Democrat to date. He carried nonwhite voters in every state. As with white voters, Rutherford's victory cut across educational lines, as he carried 84 percent of non-college educated nonwhites and 79 percent of college-educated nonwhites. It also carried across gender lines, as he won minority women by crushing margins: black women (96 percent) and Latino women (75 percent), were most supportive of the President. He also dominated among minority men by significant margins: black men (91 percent) and Latino men (71 percent). Asian/Other men and women gave the President roughly two-thirds of their votes. Rutherford's coalition of voters, as it had been in 2012, remained more diverse then that of his Republican opponent: 55 percent white, 16 percent black, and 29 percent Asian/Hispanic/Other, compared to 85 percent white, 2 percent black, and 13 percent Asian/Hispanic/Other for Leach.

Rutherford won by significant margins among both genders, carrying women (64 percent) and men (61 percent). The persistent gender gap, which had first developed as far back as the 1960s, remained in this election. Leach was crushed among women, losing them by 28 percentage points. He lost among men by a smaller margin-22 percentage points-but nevertheless became the first Republican since Phil Crane in 1984 to lose men by double digits. Rutherford swept every religious denomination in the country. The traditionally Democratic Jewish and Catholic blocs gave him huge percentages: 84 percent and 76 percent respectively. Rutherford won voters with no religious affiliation by 30 percentage points (65 percent) and beat Leach among Other voters by 16 percentage points (58 percent). He also carried traditionally Republican religious blocs: Other Christians (56 percent), Protestants (55 percent), and Mormons (52 percent), becoming the first Democrat since Johnson to win the last demographic. White evangelicals gave 55 percent of their votes to Rutherford; the remainder of the population, 65 percent.

Rutherford swept every age group in the country by double digit margins. His best group, strangely enough, was voters 65 and over (66 percent). Elderly voters were alarmed by Leach's views on Medicare, Social Security, and pensions, and were also concerned about his policy viewpoints on the environment, energy, and foreign affairs. Rutherford's next best age group was voters aged 18-29 (65 percent), traditionally the most liberal age group in the electorate, but also the group with the lowest turnout. He also dominated among voters aged 30-39 (63 percent), and carried the two Republican-leaning demographics of voters aged 40-49 and 50-64 by decisive margins, obtaining 62 percent and 60 percent of the vote among them respectively. Leach's social, foreign policy, and education views repelled younger voters, while middle-aged voters were greatly concerned about his positions on entitlements, federal grants, and the bureaucracy.

Rutherford won every age group by race. He won white voters aged 18-29 and aged 30-44 by double digits, with 58 percent and 55 percent of the vote among them respectively. He carried whites aged 45-64 by a narrower but still clear margin (52 to 48 percent), and won a comfortable majority (54 percent) among whites aged 65 and older. Leach was demolished among black voters, losing 18 to 29 year olds 94 to 6 percent, 30 to 44 year olds (the most Republican leaning age group) 88 to 12 percent, 45 to 64 year olds 98 to 2 percent, and blacks aged 65 and older (the most Democratic-leaning group), 98 to 2 percent. Among Latinos, Rutherford won 76 percent among 18-29 year olds, 73 percent among 30-44 year olds, 70 percent among 45-64 year olds, and 80 percent among those aged 65 and older.

By educational level, Rutherford also performed very well. His best group was voters with a postgraduate education (71 percent), a demographic which had shifted decisively into the Democratic column over the preceding twenty years. His next best group was voters with a high school education or less (66 percent). Those with some college education gave him 63 percent of their votes. Rutherford's weakest group was college graduates (56 percent), the most Republican-leaning demographic in the electorate, but he still beat Leach among this group by 12 percentage points. Rutherford won 52 percent among both white men with college degrees and white women with college degrees, but obtained 59 percent among white women without college degrees and 57 percent among white men without college degrees.

Rutherford also swept every income group. He dominated among those making less than $30,000 per year (71 percent) and among those making between $30,000 and $49,999 per year (69 percent). Rutherford beat Leach by 18 percentage points among voters making between $50,000 and $99,999 per year (59 percent), and carried income earners of between $100,000 and $199,999 by 12 percentage points (56 percent). The President obtained 58 percent among voters making over $200,000 per year.

LGBT voters gave 92 percent of their votes to Rutherford, their highest level of support yet for a presidential candidate. He earned 61 percent among heterosexual voters. First time voters backed the President by a 40 percentage point margin (70 percent); all other voters by a 24 percentage point margin (62 percent). 73 percent of union voters supported Rutherford, as did 60 percent of all non-union voters. Rutherford became the first Democrat since Glenn to win veterans (56 percent), beating Leach among this historically Republican demographic by 12 percentage points. He won non-veteran voters by 28 percentage points (64 percent).

Across region and community size, Rutherford's dominance was clear. He won 70 percent in the Northeast, 65 percent in the Midwest, and 63 percent in the West. The South, the only region where Leach ran ahead of his national average, nevertheless still supported Rutherford by a margin of 59 to 41 percent, an 18 percentage point difference. Rutherford won 70% of the urban vote, carrying 97 of the country's 106 largest cities. He obtained a whopping 92 percent in Washington D.C., 82 percent in Boston, 81 percent in Detroit, 78 percent in Denver, 76 percent in St. Louis and Philadelphia, 74 percent in San Francisco and New York City, 73 percent in Baltimore, 72 percent in Los Angeles, 70 percent in Cleveland and Chicago, 68 percent in Austin and Milwaukee, 67 percent in Seattle, 66 percent in Pittsburgh, 65 percent in San Antonio and San Diego, and 63 percent in Portland.

He won the traditional Republican bastions of Colorado Springs (60 percent), Virginia Beach (59 percent), Columbus (59 percent), Cincinnati (58 percent), Oklahoma City (56 percent), Indianapolis (56 percent), Houston (56 percent), Dallas (55 percent), and Orlando (55 percent). Rutherford also won Phoenix (50 percent), though he lost Maricopa County to Leach by four percentage points. Leach held Chattanooga (59 percent), Knoxville (59 percent), Mobile (56 percent), Tulsa (55 percent), Jacksonville (52 percent), Greenville (52 percent), Birmingham (51 percent), and Montgomery (50 percent), but Rutherford nevertheless improved significantly in those cities compared to his performance against Romney. Mesa, Gilbert, Glendale, and Boise were the other cities, of the top 106, that Leach carried. Of the state capitals, Rutherford won 46. Leach carried only Boise, Idaho, Pierre, South Dakota, Jefferson City, Missouri, and Montgomery, Alabama.

Rutherford won suburbs by a commanding margin (59 percent), breaking Republican strength in this category. He swept the traditionally Republican collar counties around Chicago, becoming the first Democrat to carry McHenry County since 1852. Leach held only the suburbs of Richmond, Virginia (Chesterfield and Henrico Counties), Indianapolis (Johnson, Hamilton, Hendricks, Boone, and Morgan Counties), Birmingham (Shelby, St. Clair, and Blount Counties), and Phoenix (Maricopa County). Finally, Rutherford won the rural vote handily (64 percent), earning particularly high numbers in California, Appalachia, the Northeast, New Mexico, and in his home state of Texas.

Presidential Vote by County
Another measure of Leach's loss can be explored through counties. He won a majority (or plurality) of the vote in only 581 of the nation's 3,142 counties, independent cities, and county-equivalents. Rutherford, on the other hand, carried 2,561 counties. The breakdowns:

909 counties which had voted for Romney in 2012 defected to President Rutherford in this election, the largest number of county flips between elections since 1976, when Jimmy Carter had gained 1,582 counties which had voted for Richard Nixon in 1972. Rutherford gained in every state except for Delaware, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, which he had swept four years earlier against Romney. There was a small antitrend, however, as Leach flipped 20 counties which Rutherford had carried in 2012. These were: Arkansas, Ashley, Columbia, Drew, Howard, and Union Counties, Arkansas; Lake County, California; Archuleta and Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado; Marion and Suwanee Counties, Florida; Bleckley and Brantley Counties, Georgia; Allen and Johnson Counties, Kentucky; Fulton County, Ohio; Haywood County, Tennessee; and King George, Scott, and Stafford Counties, Virginia. Most of these counties (15), were located in the South, and most of them (except for Marion, FL) were rural counties. Nevertheless, these were minor gains for the Republicans, and Leach lost in all of these respective states. Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia, in fact, were among the seventeen Romney states that flipped to Rutherford.

Leach underperformed Romney in the vast majority of the nation's counties. The results by community size were truly indicative of the shift. Whereas Romney had lost the rural vote by eight points in 2012, Leach lost it by 28. Romney had won the suburban vote by two points; Leach lost it by 18. Romney had drawn 36% of the urban vote; Leach drew just 30%. Of the nation's Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAS), Leach carried 41; Rutherford the remaining 333. Rutherford made some dramatic gains in certain states. He gained 25 percentage points in Alaska, carrying that Romney state with more than 60% of the vote. He gained 13 percentage points in the Romney state of Idaho; 13 percentage points in Indiana; 10 percentage points in Kansas; 11 percentage points in Louisiana; and 14 percentage points in Nebraska.

Rutherford went up exactly 15 percentage points in the Romney state of North Dakota, carrying it with 57.97% of the vote; he added 6 percentage points in Florida, and 11 percentage points in Leach's home state of Arizona. Oklahoma shifted into the Rutherford column, as he gained 9 percentage points there. He went up by 11 percentage points in Wyoming, by 10 percentage points in South Dakota, and gained an astonishing 21 percentage points in Utah, which had been Romney's second-strongest state in 2012. Rutherford flipped Tennessee by 9 percentage points, South Carolina by 8 percentage points, and Virginia by 10 percentage points. Even in the two states that he lost again (Alabama and Mississippi), he made gains: 9 percentage points in the former and 8 percentage points in the latter.

Rutherford also made some major gains in states that he won against Romney. His vote share went up 12 percentage points in Connecticut, Delaware, and Ohio each; 9 percentage points in Georgia; 10 percentage points in Kentucky; 16 percentage points in Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts; 14 percentage points in New Jersey and in New Hampshire; 13 percentage points in Missouri, New Mexico, and New York; and 19 percentage points in Vermont.

As indicated by the results above, the Northeast was Leach's worst region. He won only four counties in that region, all of them in Pennsylvania: Lebanon, Union, Snyder, and Wayne. Rutherford won every county in New England, the first presidential candidate since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to accomplish this feat. He became the first Democrat in history to win all of New Hampshire's counties, and only the second, following Johnson in 1964, to sweep every county in New York and New Jersey. Rutherford dominated in most of these counties, though his victories in some traditional Republican strongholds, such as McKean and Lancaster, PA, were very narrow. The best Leach did in any Northeastern county was the 55.2 percent vote share which he received in Snyder, PA. Rutherford won every northeastern state with more than sixty percent of the vote, breaking seventy percent in Massachusetts and Vermont, and even reaching eighty percent in Rhode Island.

By contrast, the South was Leach's best region, where he carried 242 of the region's 1,334 counties. Of the region's sixteen states, Rutherford won every county in just one: Delaware. He came close in Maryland, winning all but two (Garrett and Dorchester), won all but three in South Carolina (Aiken, Greenville, and Lexington), and won all but four in West Virginia (Grant, Morgan, Ritchie, and Tyler). Leach did best, county-wise, in Mississippi, the only state that he won by a double-digit margin. Leach carried 58 of the state's 82 counties. He won 42 counties and independent cities in Virginia, 38 counties in Tennessee, 34 counties in Alabama (his only other state), 24 parishes in Louisiana, 21 counties in Kentucky, 20 counties in Georgia, and 17 counties in Florida. In addition, Leach carried 16 counties in Rutherford's home state of Texas, 13 counties in North Carolina, as well as 10 counties in Arkansas. Rutherford carried Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee by double digits, and broke sixty percent in Texas, as well as in Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, and West Virginia. His closest Southern win was in Virginia, where he beat Leach by 7.36%.

In the Midwest, Leach won 142 of the region's 988 counties. He did the best, county wise, in Nebraska and Kansas, the most Republican states in the region. Leach carried 55 of Nebraska's 93 counties, making it the only state that President Rutherford won where he failed to carry a majority of the counties, and one of only three states where Leach won a majority (the others being Alabama and Mississippi). Leach won 41 counties in Kansas. He carried 20 counties in Missouri, 14 counties in South Dakota and Indiana each, and 8 counties in North Dakota. Leach did worse in Iowa and Ohio, carrying just five counties in each of those states. He won three in Michigan and Wisconsin each, and two in Minnesota. Rutherford swept every county in Illinois, becoming the first Democrat ever to achieve that feat. Rutherford cleared sixty percent in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Leach carried 71 counties in the West. He did best in Idaho, carrying 21 counties. Idaho was Rutherford's closest win that year. Leach carried 14 counties in Utah, 12 counties in Montana, 9 counties in Wyoming, 5 counties in Colorado, 4 counties in his home state of Arizona, 3 counties each in Nevada and Washington, 2 counties in Oregon, and 1 county each in California and New Mexico. Rutherford won every county in Alaska and Hawaii. He cleared sixty percent in each of these states (and broke seventy percent in Hawaii), as well as in California, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico, and Washington. Rutherford became the first Democrat since Johnson in 1964 to win every county in Alaska.