United States presidential election in Illinois, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)



The 2016 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Illinois voters chose twenty representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice-President.

Illinois was won by incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson (D-Texas) with 67.73 percent of the popular vote, against Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. (R-Alabama), with 32.27 percent of the popular vote. Ferguson won Illinois over Pryor by a margin of 35.46 percent. This was the best ever Democratic performance in Illinois in a presidential election.

Analysis
For most of the second half of the 20th century, Illinois was reckoned as a Republican-leaning swing state. It voted Republican in every election from 1952 to 1992, save for 1960 and 1964. However, George H.W. Bush barely won the state in 1988 and 1992, and in 1996, it swung heavily to Mario Cuomo and the Democrats, and it is now reckoned as the most solidly Democratic state in the Midwest, with Bush the last Republican to win it; it was one of three states in the region-Minnesota and Michigan being the others-to vote against Mitt Romney in 2008, and was by far his worst state.

The blue trend in the Land of Lincoln in presidential elections can be largely attributed to Cook County, home to Chicago, which makes up about 41.2% of the state's population. While Chicago has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, the suburban areas of Cook County have historically tilted Republican. The brand of Republicanism in the suburbs, however, has traditionally been a moderate one, and these areas swung Democratic as the national party moved more to the right. Democrats also do very well in the Illinois portions of the Quad Cities and St. Louis areas. Additionally, the historically Republican collar counties near Chicago-DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kane, and Will-have become friendlier to Democrats at both the national and local levels.

Incumbent Democratic President Henry T. Ferguson, who had won the state handily against Romney in 2012, carried it by a much larger margin against Alabama Senator William H. Pryor, Jr., winning it by a margin of 1.9 million votes. Ferguson carried Cook County with more than 79 percent of the vote, the highest percentage of any presidential candidate since its incorporation in 1831. He also swept all five collar counties, becoming the first Democratic candidate since Franklin Pierce in 1852 to do so, carrying all but McHenry County by double-digit margins. Notably, Ferguson became the first Democrat since Pierce to carry McHenry County.

He also did exceptionally well throughout downstate rural Illinois, becoming only the second Democrat (following Al Gore in 2004) to win Carroll County, the first to win Boone County since James K. Polk had done so in 1844, and the first to win Lee County since Pierce in 1852. He was also the first Democrat ever to carry Ogle County. Overall, Ferguson carried 94 of Illinois' 102 counties.

In the same election, incumbent Republican Senator Mark Kirk lost reelection to his Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth, who beat him by 54.82-44.48%. Democrats also flipped two congressional seats, IL-10 and IL-16.