United States presidential election in Alabama, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)



The 2016 United States presidential election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election, in which all fifty states and the District of Columbia participated. Alabama voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama, and running mate Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, against Democratic Party nominee, incumbent President Henry T. Ferguson and his running mate, Vice-President Amy Klobuchar.

William Pryor won the election in Alabama with 61.6% of the vote. Henry Ferguson received 38.4% of the vote. Pryor won his home state by a 23.3% margin of victory, and carried most of the counties and congressional districts. Alabama was Pryor's best state in the country in 2016, and was the only state to trend Republican compared to the 2012 election.

Analysis
Pryor, who had been the state's junior Senator since 2009, enjoyed a consistent lead in statewide polls over Ferguson throughout the general election, in spite of trailing him badly in all regions of the United States outside of the Deep South. In 2012, Alabama had been won by Republican President Mitt Romney by a margin of 59-41%, voting for him by eighteen points; this year, the state went for its native son Pryor by a margin of 23 points.

Pryor won 52 of the state's 67 counties. Compared to Romney in 2012, he ran stronger throughout much of North Alabama, which is predominantly white, but worse in South Alabama, where more African Americans live. Ferguson's county wins were confined predominantly to the traditionally Democratic Black Belt. He received more than 60% of the vote in Montgomery County, home to Montgomery, the state's capital city. Besides these counties, Ferguson also carried Jefferson County, home to the state's largest city of Birmingham. Ultimately, Pryor's dominance in the state was built upon his massive landslides in the state's suburban areas; several Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile suburbs gave him more than 70 percent of the vote. He also received more than 60 percent in Madison County, home to Huntsville.

All House incumbents were reelected in 2016, while Republican Senator Richard C. Shelby won reelection to a sixth term over his Democratic challenger Ron Crumpton, 64.27-35.72%, running ahead of Pryor by more than 3%.