United States House of Representatives elections, 2016



The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 8, 2016, to elect representatives for all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting members for the District of Columbia and territories of the United States were also elected. These elections coincided with the reelection of President W.C. Rutherford. Rutherford's landslide victory over Thomas P. Leach allowed for his Democratic Party to gain a net of 38 seats from the Republican Party, giving them a nearly two-thirds majority in the House. This was the largest House majority held by either party since 1976.

Elections were held on the same day for the U.S. Senate, many governors, and other state and local offices.

Overall analysis
The Democrats, on the strength of President Rutherford's landslide victory, scored a net gain of 38 House seats for their highest total since 1976-when Jimmy Carter narrowly lost to President Gerald Ford. No Democratic incumbent lost in 2016, an occurrence which had not been seen since 2010, when Democrats took back control of the House of Representatives.

Republican National Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel had admitted on October 29, 2016, that there would be a 15 to 20 seat loss for her party. Republican strength was only 155 members in the new Congress, their lowest total in 40 years. Many of the Republican incumbents who went down to defeat were staunch conservatives from formerly "Safe Republican" seats. GOP incumbents who chose to remain aloof from their party's Presidential nominee generally proved to be the most difficult for Democrats to defeat.

Of the 435 Representatives who won in the November 8 election, 349 were currently incumbents (216 Democrats, 132 Republicans) and 86 were newcomers (64 Democrats and 22 Republicans). Five newcomers had served in the House before-four were Democrats and one Republican.

Coattail Effects
Presidential coattails were a major factor in 2016 House elections, with President Rutherford aiding Democrats in all sections of the country. Republican Presidential nominee Thomas P. Leach had extremely limited coattails, and his poor showing contributed more then any other factor to Republican defeats throughout the country. In the South, President Rutherford's strength unseated several incumbent Republicans and netted a number of open seats for the Democrats. These included 1 seat in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Virginia each, 2 seats in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas each, and 3 seats in Georgia.

In other areas of the country, Rutherford's strength and Leach's weakness enabled the Democrats to gain 3 seats in Ohio, 2 seats in California, Iowa, Illinois, and Pennsylvania each, and 1 seat each in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

Republican Losses and Victories
Republican moderates or liberals came through the election with only a minor drop in number. Among these Republicans, the most startling victories, in view of the Democratic presidential sweep, were achieved by Reps. Mike Coffman in Colorado; Carlos Curbelo and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida; Adam Kinzinger in Illinois; Jon Golnick and Mark Alliegro in Massachusetts; Roscoe Bartlett in Maryland; Bruce Poliquin in Maine; Justin Amash and Paul Mitchell in Michigan; Matthew Erickson and Erik Paulsen in Minnesota; John Webb in Missouri; Frank Guinta in New Hampshire; Tom MacArthur and Chris Smith in New Jersey; Steve Pearce in New Mexico; Frank Scaturro, Robert Goodman, C. Scott Vanderhoof, Nan Hayworth, John Faso, Richard Hanna, Tom Reed, and David Bellavia in New York; Bob Gibbs in Ohio; Greg Walden in Oregon; Glenn Thompson, Brian Fitzpatrick, and Bill Shuster in Pennsylvania; Sam Johnson, Kay Granger, and Lamar Smith in Texas; and David McKinley in West Virginia. Leach lost in the districts of all these Representatives.

On the other hand, staunch conservative Republicans, suffering from their close identification with Leach, found their number greatly reduced by the Democratic sweep. Among those defeated were: Reps. Tim Griffin (Arkansas); Jeff Stone (California); John Mica (Florida); Buddy Carter and Doug Collins (Georgia); John Shimkus (Illinois); Rod Blum and David Young (Iowa); Raúl Labrador (Idaho); Clay Higgins (Louisiana); Mike Bishop (Michigan); Blaine Luetkemeyer (Missouri); Jim Hagedorn (Minnesota); David Rouzer (North Carolina); David Joyce and Michael Turner (Ohio); Steve Russell (Oklahoma); Mike Kelly and Scott Perry (Pennsylvania); Ralph Norman (South Carolina); Jodey Arrington (Texas); and Paul Ryan (Wisconsin).

Among defeated moderate Republican incumbents were: Jeff Denham (California); Andrew Roraback (Connecticut); David Jolly (Florida); Chuck Brewer (Indiana); Elise Stefanik (New York); Crescent Hardy (Nevada); Will Hurd (Texas); and Scott Taylor (Virginia). Defeated Republican incumbents who could be classified as lying between the staunch conservatives and moderates included: Scott Tipton (Colorado), Mark E. Lieon (Illinois), and David Walker (North Carolina).

The defeat of such conservatives as Griffin, Mica, Carter, Collins, Shimkus, Labrador, Higgins, Bishop, Luektemeyer, Hagedorn, Rouzer, Joyce, Turner, Kelly, Perry, Norman, Arrington, and Ryan was one of the ironies of the 2016 election. They were among 54 Republican Representatives who (June 17, 2016), signed the following statement: "We are convinced the nomination of Sen. Thomas Leach will result in substantial increases in Republican membership in both houses of Congress." Three other incumbents who signed the statement did not seek re-election to the House but saw their districts go Democratic: Jody Hice (Georgia); Andy Barr (Kentucky), and Jim Renacci (Ohio). These three Representatives, who had retired from the House to run for the U.S. Senate, lost their bids for higher office. With the exceptions of Alabama and Mississippi, President Rutherford carried every one of the states from which 49 signers came. Of the signers who managed to win re-election, 26 saw their margin of victory reduced, and only 6 increased their percentage from 2014.

On the other hand, four of the 34 incumbent Republican Representatives endorsed October 28, 2016, by the Committee to Support Moderate Republicans were defeated: Roraback of Connecticut; Jolly of Florida; Brewer of Indiana; and Hurd of Texas. Apparently sensing the danger to them in a Leach nomination, all had opposed his nomination for the Presidency.

Another factor that stood out from the election results was that 11 of the 20 Republicans outside the South who opposed final passage of the Criminal Justice Reform Act were defeated: Stone (California); Shimkus (Illinois); Blum and Young (Iowa); Labrador (Idaho); Hagedorn (Minnesota); Joyce and Turner (Ohio); Kelly and Perry (Pennsylvania); and Ryan (Wisconsin).

25 of the 71 Southern Republicans opposed the Criminal Justice Reform Act, and seven of them were defeated: Griffin (Arkansas); Mica (Florida); Carter (Georgia); Higgins (Louisiana); Rouzer (North Carolina); Norman (South Carolina); and Arrington (Texas). The one Southern Democrat who opposed the Act, Jim Hood (Mississippi), won re-election. Coincidentally, his district was one of just three Democratic-held districts in the entire country that Senator Leach carried (the other two were AL-03 and AL-05 in Alabama). Hood was also the only Democrat in the entire country to vote against the Act.

Democratic Victories and Losses
Democrats gained about twice as many seats as had been expected in pre-election speculation. Part of their net gain of 38 seats came from turnabouts in nearly solid Republican state delegations. In Iowa, led by President Rutherford, Democrats increased the number of House seats from one to three, leaving Rep. Steve King (R) the lone GOP Representative still in office. King won re-election by 83,726 votes (61.23%) in IA-04 (President Rutherford won the district 59-41% over Senator Leach). King was one of the 20 Northern Republicans who voted against the Criminal Justice Reform Act, along with Blum and Young, but was the only one of the three to win re-election. Democrats flipped Republican delegation majorities in Arizona, Colorado, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Virginia, and tied them in Ohio, Idaho, and Nevada.

The largest numerical gain for the Democrats in the South came in Georgia, where Senator Leach lost by 674,816 votes, and did poorly in the traditionally Republican Northern regions of the state. In the North, Democrats obtained their largest numerical gain in Ohio, which Leach lost by 1,422,491. In both states, President Rutherford's wide margins of victory over Leach were attributed as the chief cause for the Republican losses.

Regional Breakdown
The new House party line-up for the nation's four geographical regions: (Previous line-up in parentheses)

Democrats scored a 12-seat gain in the Midwest to achieve numerical superiority in that region for the first time since their 2010 sweep. Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney's strength throughout much of the Midwest in 2012 had enabled Republicans to recapture many of the seats they had lost.

Democrats picked up 5 new seats in the East and 6 seats in the West. They also gained 15 seats in the South, further expanding the majority which they had held there previously.

Many of the Democratic gains may prove temporary because a Democratic Presidential sweep equaling the magnitude of 2016's will be difficult to duplicate. Nevertheless, Democratic control of the House appears assured for the near future. Republicans would have to gain 67 seats in the 2018 elections to regain control of the House which they last held in 2010. Republicans have controlled the House for 13 of the 26 years since 1990.

Party Support
Only two Democratic Representatives bolted their party's Presidential ticket to support Leach, and both were in danger of losing their seniority and committee assignments. Three Republican Representatives, while not supporting Rutherford, refused to endorse their party's presidential candidate-Reps. Bruce Poliquin (Maine), Jon Golnick (Massachusetts), and C. Scott Vanderhoof (New York). All three won re-election (Vanderhoof was unopposed), and in the cases of Poliquin and Golnick, their re-election could be attributed partly to their refusal to endorse Leach. Their seniority and committee assignments were not jeopardized, however.

Democratic House liberals, prior to the election, warned that they would seek to strip Democratic defectors of their committee assignments and seniority.

Those affected were veteran Rep. Jim Hood (D-Mississippi) and freshman Rep. Steve Raby (D-Alabama). Hood was second ranking Democrat on the House Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee and fifth ranking Democrat on the House District of Columbia Committee. Raby was third from bottom in rank on the House Post Office and Civil Service Committee.

Incumbents not seeking re-election
45 Representatives declined to seek re-election in 2016.

Democrats
21 Democrats retired.


 * 1) Alabama 5: Parker Griffith: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 2) Arizona 1: Ann Kirkpatrick: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 3) California 20: Jim Farr: Retired.
 * 4) California 24: Lois Capps: Retired.
 * 5) California 34: Xavier Becerra: Retired.
 * 6) California 44: Janice Hahn: To run for Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. (Won)
 * 7) California 46: Loretta Sanchez: Retired.
 * 8) Delaware At-large: John Carney: To run for Governor of Delaware. (Won)
 * 9) Florida 9: Alan Grayson: Retired.
 * 10) Illinois 8: Tammy Duckworth: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 11) Indiana 2: Barron Hill: To run for U.S. Senate. (Withdrew)
 * 12) Maine 2: Chellie Pingree: Retired.
 * 13) Maryland 4: Donna Edwards: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 14) Maryland 8: Chris Van Hollen: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 15) Michigan 13: John Conyers: Retired.
 * 16) New York 3: Steve Israel: Retired.
 * 17) New York 13: Charles Rangel: Retired.
 * 18) North Dakota At-large: Earl Pomeroy: To run for Governor of North Dakota. (Won)
 * 19) Pennsylvania 18: Jack Machek: Retired.
 * 20) Texas 15: Ruben Hinojosa: Retired.
 * 21) Washington 7: Jim McDermott: Retired.

Republicans
24 Republicans retired.


 * 1) Alabama 1: Bradley Byrne: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 2) Arizona 2: Martha McSally: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 3) Florida 1: Jeff Miller: Retired.
 * 4) Florida 4: Ander Crenshaw: Retired.
 * 5) Florida 18: John Cassidy: Retired.
 * 6) Florida 19: Curt Clawson. Retired.
 * 7) Georgia 3: Lynn Westmoreland. Retired.
 * 8) Georgia 14: Jody Hice: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 9) Indiana 3: Marlin Stutzman: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 10) Indiana 4: Todd Rokita: To run for Vice-President. (Lost)
 * 11) Indiana 9: Todd Young: To run for U.S. Senate. (Won)
 * 12) Kentucky 6: Andy Barr: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 13) Michigan 10: Candace Miller: Retired.
 * 14) Minnesota 2: John Kline: Retired.
 * 15) Nevada 3: Joe Heck: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 16) New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo: Retired.
 * 17) New York 24: John Katko: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 18) Ohio 12: Pat Tiberi: Retired.
 * 19) Ohio 16: Jim Renacci: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 20) Oklahoma 1: Jim Bridenstine: To run for U.S. Senate. (Lost)
 * 21) Pennsylvania 16: Joe Pitts: Retired.
 * 22) Tennessee 8: Stephen Fitcher: Retired.
 * 23) Wisconsin 8: Reid Ribble: Retired.
 * 24) Wyoming At-large: Cynthia Lummis. Retired.

Democrats

 * 1) California 17: Mike Honda lost renomination to Ro Khanna.
 * 2) California 43: Maxine Waters lost renomination to Miguel Zuniga.
 * 3) Florida 5: Corrine Brown lost renomination to Al Lawson.
 * 4) Florida 23: Debbie Wasserman Schultz lost renomination to Tim Canova.
 * 5) Pennsylvania 2: Chaka Fattah lost renomination to Dwight Evans. Subsequently, resigned on June 23, 2016.

Republicans

 * 1) California 48: Dana Rohrabacher lost renomination to Scott Baugh.
 * 2) Colorado 5: Doug Lamborn lost renomination to Owen Hill.
 * 3) Kansas 1: Tim Huelskamp lost renomination to Roger Marshall.

Democrats
Every Democratic incumbent won reelection in 2016.

Republicans
33 Republicans lost reelection to Democrats.
 * 1) Arkansas 2: Tim Griffin (R) lost to Connor Eldridge (D).
 * 2) California 18: Jeff Denham (R) lost to Anna Eshoo (D).
 * 3) California 19: Jeff Stone (R) lost to Peter Leinau (D).
 * 4) Colorado 3: Scott Tipton (R) lost to Diane Mitsch Bush (D).
 * 5) Connecticut 5: Andrew Roraback (R) lost to Elizabeth Esty (D).
 * 6) Florida 7: John Mica (R) lost to Stephanie Murphy (D).
 * 7) Florida 13: David Jolly (R) lost to Charlie Crist (D).
 * 8) Georgia 1: Buddy Carter (R) lost to Brian Reese (D).
 * 9) Georgia 9: Doug Collins (R) lost to John Bradbury (D).
 * 10) Idaho 1: Raul Labrador (R) lost to Cristina McNeil (D).
 * 11) Illinois 15: John Shimkus (R) lost to Eric Thorsland (D).
 * 12) Illinois 17: Mark E. Lieon (R) lost to Cheri Bustos (D).
 * 13) Indiana 7: Chuck Brewer (R) lost to Joe Hogsett (D).
 * 14) Iowa 1: Rod Blum (R) lost to Abby Fineknauer (D).
 * 15) Iowa 3: David Young (R) lost to Cindy Axne (D).
 * 16) Louisiana 3: Clay Higgins (R) lost to Scott Angelle (D).
 * 17) Michigan 8: Mike Bishop (R) lost to Elissa Slotkin (D).
 * 18) Minnesota 1: Jim Hagedorn (R) lost to Tim Walz (D).
 * 19) Missouri 3: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) lost to Kevin Miller (D).
 * 20) Nevada 4: Crescent Hardy (R) lost to Steven Horsford (D).
 * 21) New York 21: Elise Stefanik (R) lost to Aaron Wolf (D).
 * 22) North Carolina 6: Mark Walker (R) lost to Ryan Watts (D).
 * 23) North Carolina 7: David Rouzer (R) lost to J. Wesley Casteen (D).
 * 24) Ohio 10: Michael Turner (R) lost to Sharon Neuhardt (D).
 * 25) Ohio 14: David Joyce (R) lost to Michael Wager (D).
 * 26) Oklahoma 5: Steve Russell (R) lost to Tom Guild (D).
 * 27) Pennsylvania 2: Mike Kelly (R) lost to Kathy Dahlkemper (D).
 * 28) Pennsylvania 3: Scott Perry (R) lost to Joshua Burkholder (D).
 * 29) South Carolina 5: Ralph Norman (R) lost to Archie Parnell (D).
 * 30) Texas 19: Jodey Arrington (R) lost to Andy Wilson (D).
 * 31) Texas 23: Will Hurd (R) lost to Rick Trevino (D).
 * 32) Virginia 2: Scott Taylor (R) lost to Elaine Luria (D).
 * 33) Wisconsin 1: Paul Ryan (R) lost to Randy Bryce (D).

Democratic seats
All Democratic nominees in Democratic-held open seats won this year.

Republican seats
Five open seats were lost.
 * 1) Arizona 2: Martha McSally (R) retired to run for U.S. Senate. Seat was won by Matt Heinz (D).
 * 2) Georgia 14: Jody Hice (R) retired to run for U.S. Senate. Seat was won by Daniel Grant (D).
 * 3) Kentucky 6: Andy Barr (R) retired to run for U.S. Senate. Seat was won by Amy McGrath (D).
 * 4) New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo (R) retired. Seat was won by Jeff Van Drew (D).
 * 5) Ohio 16: Jim Renacci (R) retired to run for U.S. Senate. Seat was won by Peter Crossland (D).

Close races
Blue denotes House races won by Democrats while Red denotes those won by Democrats. Italics denote a seat that flipped parties.

Seats where the margin of victory was under 1%:


 * 1) Maine 1st, 0.1%
 * 2) New York 16th, 0.1%
 * 3) Massachusetts 9th, 0.2%
 * 4) Georgia 9th, 0.4%
 * 5) North Carolina 4th, 0.4%
 * 6) Illinois 15th, 0.6%
 * 7) Texas 23rd, 0.8%

Seats where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:


 * 1) Nevada 3rd, 1.0%
 * 2) Connecticut 5th, 1.1%
 * 3) Iowa 3rd, 1.2%
 * 4) Colorado 6th, 1.8%
 * 5) California 17th, 2.0%
 * 6) Georgia 1st, 2.0%
 * 7) Minnesota 2nd, 2.4%
 * 8) New Hampshire 1st, 2.7%
 * 9) Florida 7th, 3.0%
 * 10) Massachusetts 3rd, 3.0%
 * 11) Nevada 4th, 3.0%
 * 12) Colorado 3rd, 3.2%
 * 13) Missouri 3rd, 3.6%
 * 14) New Jersey 5th, 3.6%
 * 15) Florida 13th, 3.8%
 * 16) California 18th, 4.0%
 * 17) New York 21st, 4.4%
 * 18) Indiana 9th, 4.7%
 * 19) Maryland 6th, 4.8%

Seats where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:
 * 1) California 18th, 4.0%
 * 2) Florida 26th, 5.0%
 * 3) New York 27th, 5.0%
 * 4) Ohio 16th, 5.2%
 * 5) California 20th, 5.4%
 * 6) New York 3rd, 5.6%
 * 7) Texas 5th, 5.6%
 * 8) Arkansas 2nd, 5.8%
 * 9) Pennsylvania 3rd, 5.8%
 * 10) Arizona 6th, 6.0%
 * 11) Idaho 1st, 6.0%
 * 12) New York 6th, 6.0%
 * 13) Ohio 4th'', 6.0%
 * 14) Louisiana 2nd, 6.2%
 * 15) South Dakota At-large, 6.2%
 * 16) California 24th, 6.8%
 * 17) Illinois 17th, 7.0%
 * 18) California 19th, 7.2%
 * 19) New Mexico 2nd, 7.2%
 * 20) New York 4th, 7.4%
 * 21) Nebraska 2nd, 7.5%
 * 22) Georgia 14th, 7.8%
 * 23) Indiana 7th, 8.0%
 * 24) Florida 18th, 8.2%
 * 25) New York 19th, 8.2%
 * 26) Montana At-large, 8.2%
 * 27) Iowa 1st, 8.4%
 * 28) Pennsylvania 8th, 8.8%
 * 29) West Virginia 1st, 9.0%
 * 30) Michigan 10th, 9.1%
 * 31) New Jersey 7th, 9.1%
 * 32) New Jersey 3rd, 9.8%