United States presidential election, 2016 (Ferguson Scenario)



The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. Incumbent Democratic President Henry T. Ferguson defeated William H. Pryor Jr., the Republican nominee. With 61.1% of the popular vote, Ferguson won the largest share of the popular vote of any candidate since the largely uncontested 1820 election.

Ferguson took office in January 2013, after defeating his Republican predecessor, Mitt Romney, in the 2012 election. He ran unopposed for the Democratic presidential nomination, and once again tapped sitting Vice President Amy Klobuchar as his running mate. Senator William H. Pryor, Jr. of Alabama, one of the most conservative Republicans in the United States Senate, defeated moderate Governor Jon M. Huntsman of Utah and Governor John Kasich of Ohio for the Republican presidential nomination.

Ferguson, who had successfully navigated the country through economic recovery and had overseen the resolution of American conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, enjoyed high approval ratings by the time of the election. Ferguson also advocated a series of programs known as the New Hope, addressing immigration, infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Pryor, on his part, called for privatizing Social Security and opposed the New Hope. Democrats successfully portrayed Pryor as a dangerous extremist, most famously in the "Pryor's America" television advertisement. The Republican Party was divided between its moderate and conservative factions, with Huntsman and other moderate party leaders refusing to campaign for Pryor. Ferguson led by wide margins in all public opinion polls throughout the campaign.

Ferguson carried 46 states and the District of Columbia. Pryor won his home state and three other adjacent states in the Deep South-Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina, which have been Republican strongholds in recent decades. Ferguson's landslide victory coincided with the defeat of many conservative Republican Congressmen. The subsequent 115th Congress would pass major legislation such as the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2017 and the Voting Rights Amendments.

Primaries
With the advantage of incumbency, Henry Ferguson's path to renomination by the Democratic Party was uneventful. The nomination process consisted of primaries and caucuses, held by the 50 states, as well as Guam, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Democrats Abroad. Additionally, high-ranking party members known as superdelegates each received one vote in the convention. Running unopposed everywhere, President Ferguson cemented his status as the Democratic presumptive nominee on April 5, 2016, by securing the minimum number of pledged delegates needed to win the nomination.

Primaries
The Republican Party's nomination process in 2016 was dominated by a civil war between its moderate and conservative factions. Former Vice-President John E. Sununu, who had been on the losing Republican presidential ticket in 2012, decided not to run. Sununu, a moderate with ties to both wings of the GOP, would have been able to unite the party's factions. In his absence, other candidates emerge. Alabama Senator William H. Pryor, Jr., a political firebrand who had become a leader of the Party's conservative faction, emerged as that wing's primary candidate for the Presidency. He was opposed for the Republican nomination by Governor Jon M. Huntsman of Utah, who had long been a leader of the Party's moderate faction.

Governor John Kasich of Ohio, another prominent member of the Party's moderate faction, also ran for the nomination, as did South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, former New York Governor George Pataki, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and physician Ben Carson, the latter two of whom were also conservatives.

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Gilmore, Pataki, and Santorum withdrew due to low polling numbers. The nomination was, from the beginning, primarily a contest between Pryor and Huntsman. Pryor, who had been the favorite in Iowa polls prior to the caucuses, posted a strong performance there, capturing most of the delegates. Huntsman subsequently won the New Hampshire primary, in the aftermath of which Graham dropped out. Nevertheless, the momentum lay with Pryor. On March 1, 2016, the first of the "Super Tuesday" primaries were held, with Huntsman prevailing only in Minnesota and Alaska, and Pryor sweeping the remaining nine states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later. On March 15, 2016, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won only the contest in his home state of Ohio, and Pryor won five primaries, including Florida. Fiorina dropped out at this stage.

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Pryor, Huntsman, and Kasich. Huntsman won the contests in his home state of Utah, and in other Western states including the Dakotas, Idaho, Wyoming, and Arizona. Ultimately, however, he was unable to overcome the Pryor margins in states such as Wisconsin and Indiana, and on May 3, 2016, formally suspended his campaign. Kasich also ended his bid at that point in time. Shortly afterwards, Pryor was proclaimed to be the presumptive nominee by the chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), Reince Priebus.

Pryor subsequently selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who had gained notice as a deficit hawk in the House, as his running mate. Ryan's selection surprised many, as it was not thought to bring any discernible advantages to the ticket. Nevertheless, he won the Republican vice presidential nomination by acclamation on June 19 at the 2016 Republican National Convention, held in Cleveland, Ohio.

Withdrawn candidates

 * Jon Huntsman, Governor of Utah (withdrew on May 3, 2016; refused to endorse Pryor)
 * John Kasich, Governor of Ohio (withdrew on May 3, 2016; refused to endorse Pryor)
 * Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard (withdrew on March 15, 2016; declined to endorse a candidate)
 * Ben Carson, surgeon (withdrew on March 5, 2016; declined to endorse a candidate, then endorsed Pryor)
 * Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina (withdrew on February 17, 2016; endorsed Pryor)
 * George Pataki, former Governor of New York (withdrew on December 29, 2015; declined to endorse a candidate)
 * Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (withdrew on December 21, 2015; endorsed Pryor)
 * Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania (withdrew on November 17, 2015; endorsed Pryor)



Other candidates
Libertarian Party candidate Sam Sloan received 135,226 popular votes (0.09%). Sloan, a chess player and publisher, had previously ran for the Libertarian presidential nomination in 2012, but lost to former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. He had also run for Governor of New York, as an independent, in 2014. His share of the popular vote was a substantial drop from the 3.27% Johnson had received in 2012.

Jill Stein of the Green Party took 27,334 popular votes (0.02%), while Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle came in fifth with 13,670 popular votes (0.01%). Write-ins and all other candidates (independents and minor third parties) received the remaining 13,670 popular votes (0.01%).

Campaign
Pryor was unable to unite the Party's conservative and moderate factions for the general election. The 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, was one of the most contentious and most divisive conventions for that party in recent times, matching that of the 1964 Republican National Convention. A final attempt was mounted by supporters of Huntsman to produce a revolt on the convention floor, aimed at denying Pryor the requisite number of delegates needed to win the convention. Members of the Colorado and Utah delegations were instrumental to this effort, which was nevertheless quenched by Priebus and other leading Republican officials. Huntsman himself gave a speech at the Convention, but did not explicitly endorse Pryor and refused to do so when pressed. Kasich refused to attend the Convention at all, and openly expressed his doubts about the viability of the Pryor campaign.

Pryor himself was unable to overcome the difficulties this generated, nor was he able to present an attractive and compelling alternative to the Ferguson campaign. Pryor's controversial comments on aspects of social policy, such as homosexuality, attracted considerable attention, and were given additional light by the Democrats. Moreover, his strong opposition to immigration, healthcare, and education reform was at odds with the opinions of the majority of the American populace. This was further magnified by the fact that his running mate, Ryan, was one of the leading advocates for privatizing Social Security and clashing back on Medicare and Medicaid entitlements, policies which Pryor supported. Ferguson, who presented himself as a tireless advocate for the working class, and advanced a series of policy proposals known as the New Hope, criticized his Republican opponents for these stances.

Moreover, capitalizing on Pryor's remarks on social policy, and upon war-he called for a "carpet campaign" against terrorist cells throughout the Middle West-Ferguson was able to paint Pryor as a dangerous extremist, suggesting that his administration would reverse the progress of recent years. This message was amplified through a series of television advertisements, most notably the "Pryor's America" ad, among the most famous such ads in American political history. Ferguson also vastly outspent Pryor and was represented well on the campaign trail by Vice-President Klobuchar, who was able to charm audiences with her folksy manner and common-sense approach to the issues.

Ferguson led Pryor in all public opinion polls by wide margins throughout the entire campaign.

Results


The election was held on November 8, 2016. Ferguson beat Pryor in the general election, winning over 61% of the popular vote, the highest percentage since the popular vote first became widespread in 1824. In the end, Pryor won only his home state of Alabama and three neighboring Deep South states-Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina-which have become Republican strongholds in recent decades. Ferguson's 497 electoral votes were the most for any Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt had earned 523 votes in 1936.

Ferguson became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win the states of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, and only the second, following Al Gore in 2004, to carry Kansas and Nebraska.

Of the 3,144 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Ferguson won in 2,332 (74.17%) while Pryor carried 812 (25.83%).

The Ferguson landslide defeated many conservative Republican congressmen, giving him a majority that could enact a more progressive agenda.

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (3 electoral votes):
 * 1) Mississippi, 1.00%

Margin of victory less than 5% (14 electoral votes):
 * 1) Idaho, 1.84%
 * 2) Florida, 2.30%

Margin of victory over 5%, but less than 10% (31 electoral votes):
 * 1) Nebraska, 5.22%
 * 2) Virginia, 7.36%
 * 3) Georgia, 8.25%
 * 4) Kansas, 9.03%
 * 5) Utah, 9.73%

Electoral records

 * This was the last election prior to the admission of Puerto Rico to the Union, and hence, was the last election in which the Electoral College had 538 electors.
 * This was the first election since 1964 in which Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming voted Democratic and the first time since 2004 that Kansas and Nebraska did so. This was also only the fourth time in Alaska's state history, following 1964, 2004, and 2012, that the state voted Democratic in a presidential election.
 * This was the first time since the 1972 election that any candidate won more than 60% of the national popular vote, and was also only the second time since the 1984 election that any candidate won by a double-digit margin in the popular vote, following 2004.
 * This was the first time since the 1984 election that any candidate won at least ninety percent of the votes of the Electoral College.
 * 2016 was only the second time since 1964 that a Democrat gained a majority of the white vote, and the first time since that election that they gained a majority of the white male vote.
 * This was the first time ever that a Democrat won the following counties: Ogle County, Illinois; Sanilac County, Michigan; Leslie County, Kentucky; Owsley County, Kentucky; and Morgan County, West Virginia.
 * Boone County, Illinois voted Democratic for the first time since 1844, Lee County, Illinois voted Democratic for the first time since 1852, Carroll County, New Hampshire voted Democratic for the first time since 1912, and Osborne County, Kansas, voted Democratic for the first time since 1916.
 * The following counties voted Democratic for the first time since 1936: Orange County, California; Ada County, Idaho; Josephine County, Oregon; and Lebanon County, Pennsylvania.
 * Churchill and Lyon Counties, Nevada, voted Democratic for the first time since 1940.
 * El Paso County, Colorado and Whitley County, Kentucky voted Democratic for the first time since 1964.