Talk:United States presidential election, 2020 (Trump Loses)

The following page provides a more in-depth description of the results of the election of 2020, and how it compared to the election of 2016.

Election of 2020
The election of 2020 had a significant impact upon the politics of the United States. The Republican Party, which had been the country's majority party for most of the preceding decade, was now reduced to minority status, much more so than they had been in 2008. Johannson's victory, unlike Obama's victory in 2008, had been national and touched every region of the United States. The pockets of resistance, which had remained loyal to President Trump, were not as coherent or extensive as those which had voted for John McCain, and over Obama, had been. Moreover, Johannson's victory was a true electoral and popular vote landslide, the first achieved by a candidate from either party since Ronald Reagan's landslide re-election in 1984. He had captured 61.1% of the popular vote, winning by a margin of 22.58%. Obama had won by a margin of 7.28%; Johannson's margin, consequently, was nearly triple Obama's. And he had obtained it by appealing to a wide cross-section of the American electorate, uniting all of the various elements opposed to Trump into one cohesive coalition.

In 2020, 68% of the electorate was white; 32% was non-white. For the first time in fifty-six years, since 1964, a Democrat won the white vote. Johannson captured 53%, a gain of sixteen percentage points from 2016, in which Hillary Clinton had won 37%. This was the most significant gain Johannson made among any demographic group. The Governor won white women 53-47% and white men 52-48%. This marked a 10 point improvement among white women and a 21 point improvement among white men; Clinton had lost white women, 53-43%, and white men 63-31%. Johannson's victory, moreover, carried across both college-educated and non college-educated whites. He won 56-44% among college-educated whites and 52-48% among non college-educated whites, marking a 11-point gain among the former group, and an astonishing 25-point gain among the latter. Clinton had lost college-educated whites, 49-46%, and non college-educated whites, 67-28%. Thus, what had been a 39-pt. deficit among the latter group was turned into a 4-pt. Democratic triumph.

Among minorities, Johannson outperformed Clinton, solidifying what was already a definitive Democratic lock on these groups. He won African-Americans 92-7% (as compared to Clinton's 88-8%), Hispanics 77-23% (versus Clinton's 65-29%), Asians 76-24% (Clinton 65-29%), and Others 61-39% (Clinton 56-37%). The Trump administration's policies in regards to affirmative action, law enforcement and criminal justice, and economic inequality, along with his vague approval for the alt-right movement and his own prior business record, had served to alienate black voters further from the Republican Party, and to drive them back up to Obama-levels of support for the Democrats; Hispanics were alienated by his harsh immigration policies. Johannson thereby matched Obama's record among blacks, and outperformed him among the other groups. Johannson picked up 4% among blacks; 12% among Hispanics; 11% among Asians; and 5% among Others. Overall, Johannson won 81% of the non-white vote.

The Governor won a commanding victory among both genders, winning women 62-38% and men 60-40%. He was the first Democrat to win men since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Along religious lines as well, Johannson's dominance cut across barriers. He was heavily favored over Trump among Jews (90-10%), Atheists/Agnostics (95-5%), and Catholics (76-24%). Clinton had won Jews 71-24% and Atheists/Agnostics 68-26%, but had lost Catholics 52-45%. Johannson became the first Democrat since Carter to win Protestants, though by a narrower margin than the other denominations (55-45%); Clinton had lost them 60-37%. He was also the first Democrat since Johnson to win Mormons, carrying them 54-46% (Clinton had lost them 61-28%), which proved critical to his victory in Utah.

Johannson's performance by region was truly remarkable. He won the East 69-31% (Clinton 55-40%), the Midwest 60-40% (Clinton lost 49-46%), the South 55-45% (Clinton lost 52-44%), and the West 64-36% (Clinton 55-39%). An even more in-depth analysis of each region reveals the dramatic gains Johannson made against Trump.

In New England, Johannson absolutely dominated, cleaning up among non college-educated and college-educated whites alike. Trump, who had managed to make substantial gains over Clinton four years earlier, principally in Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, proved to be more toxic then had first been thought. The liberal culture of the region did not accord with his rhetoric, his policy stances, and his courting of evangelicals; they despised his childlessness, and strongly disapproved of his shifts in social policy towards marijuana, gay rights, and other such issues. Trump was absolutely destroyed, not winning a single county. He had won the 2nd District of Maine 51-40% in 2016; he now lost it 62-35%. In Maine as a whole, Trump lost 68-32%, in a state where he had come within 3 points of winning just four years earlier. The same story was seen in New Hampshire, it went from 47-46% Clinton in 2016 to 64-36% Johannson in this election. In the long-time Democratic strongholds of Vermont and Massachusetts, Trump stood no chance. In Vermont, voters who had gone third party, or went for Bernie Sanders, returned strongly to the Democratic fold; Trump was annihilated 77-23%. In Massachusetts, where he had lost 60-33% in 2016, and not won a single county, he now lost 74-25%. And in Rhode Island, he lost 68-32%. In Kent County, Rhode Island, which he had won 47-46% against Clinton, he now lost against Johannson, 63-37%. In Connecticut, Trump lost 66-34%.

In the Mid-Atlantic states, Trump was thoroughly humiliated. In New York, his home state, he had lost 59-37%, but had managed to win the majority of the state's counties. This time, however, Trump lost 72-26%, and did not win a single county. Johannson became only the second Democrat in history, following Johnson in 1964, and only the fourth presidential candidate overall, following Johnson, Calvin Coolidge, and Warren G. Harding, to win every single county in the state. In New York City, he won a commanding 84% of the vote, sweeping every borough. Staten Island, which had gone 56-40% Trump in 2016, went 64-35% Johannson. Johannson obliterated Trump 93-6% in the Bronx, 87-12% in Manhattan, 87-12% in Brooklyn, and 84-14% in Queens. Trump lost Suffolk 63-35%, Nassau 64-35%, Westchester 71-28%, and Rockland 66-32%. The closest he came to winning any county was in Wyoming County, where he lost 50-48%. Johannson also obtained record margins in the Democratic strongholds of Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, and Ithaca, carrying them all with more than 65% of the vote (in Ithaca, he obtained 86%).

In New Jersey and Delaware, Trump stood no chance, losing the former 66-34% and the latter 65-35%; he did not win a single county in either state, and became only the second Republican in history, following Barry Goldwater, to be completely shut out of New Jersey. The closest Trump came was in Sussex County, which he lost to Johannson 54-45%. In Pennsylvania, there was a dramatic reversal of the results from 2016. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the Philadelphia suburban counties of Bucks, Chester, Montgomery, and Delaware voted strongly against Trump, with Johannson obtaining 87% of the vote in Philadelphia, and 70% in Pittsburgh. Johannson won back not only Erie and Luzerne Counties, but swept all but four of the state's counties. Trump held on to only Snyder, Union, Wayne, and Lebanon Counties, which had also been the only counties that resisted Johnson in 1964. Overall, Johannson won 65-35% in Pennsylvania; voters in that state had given Trump and the GOP the chance to improve their lives, and they had been failed.

In Maryland, Trump lost all but two counties (Dorchester and Garnett), and was defeated 73-27%, Johannson being the first Democrat to ever crack 70% in the state. In Washington D.C, Trump lost 98-2%, the worst defeat ever for a Republican in the federal District. In the South, stretching from Virginia to Texas, Johannson had assembled a coalition of emergent minorities and working class whites, along with a significant number of college-educated whites. The minority vote had continued to grow in the South, and proved critical to his wins. But the defections among whites, who had begun to depolarize in significant numbers, also proved critical. In Virginia, Trump lost 63-37%, with Johannson winning most of the state's independent cities, and running ahead of Clinton by 10-20 percentage points in the Shenandoah Valley and in Southwest Virginia. He destroyed Trump in Loudoun, Prince William, and Fairfax Counties, and obtained over 80% of the vote in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Richmond, and Manassas. He won Norfolk 67-33%, and beat Trump in Virginia Beach, winning 59-41%. Johannson won 57-43% in North Carolina, obtaining record turnout and margins in the Research Triangle (Winston-Salem, Durham, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Charlotte), and far outperforming Clinton in Appalachia and the Lowlands, particularly in New Hanover and Jackson Counties, both of which he won by double digits.

In South Carolina and Georgia, Johannson won over suburban white Republicans who had never been particularly fond of the President, capitalizing upon the gains made in both states by Hillary Clinton. In Georgia especially, he achieved the winning combination, combining Clinton 2016 performance in the Atlanta metropolitan area with Obama-2008 performance in the Black Belt. He won Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry Counties by decisive margins, destroyed Trump in Fulton (getting over 75% of the vote), DeKalb, Clayton, and Rockdale Counties, and also flipped both Coweta and Fayette Counties, winning the former 52-48% and the latter 54-46%. The Governor also took advantage of his strong margins among millennials and northern transplants. Overall, he won Georgia 57-43% and South Carolina 56-44%. In South Carolina, Trump held on to Greenville County, but lost Columbia and Charleston Counties by overwhelming margins, with Johannson obtaining over 70% of the vote in both.

In Alabama and Mississippi, Johannson capitalized with working-class whites, who had previously voted Republican for cultural reasons, now choosing economic reality and voting accordingly. His victory in Alabama was secured by his overwhelming margins in Jefferson and Montgomery Counties, obtaining over 70% of the vote in both; by his victories in Shelby, Tuscaloosa, and Pickens Counties; by strong turnout in the Black Belt; and by holding Trump to single-digit victories in Baldwin and Mobile Counties. The overall result was still close, due to Northern Alabama and the coastal counties, but Johannson prevailed 51-48%. In Mississippi, Hancock, Madison, and DeSoto Counties joined with Hinds County and the counties of the Mississippi Delta to deliver the state to the Democrats, with the Governor winning 56-44%. In Arkansas and Louisiana, white-working class (federal) Republicans abandoned Trump in droves; Johannson was also greatly aided by his running mate, Governor Bel Edwards, who was very popular in Louisiana and had a similar appeal in its neighboring states. He won Arkansas 56-44% and Louisiana 57-43%, with Trump holding on to Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes in the latter. In Tennessee, which Johannson won 54-46%, strong black turnout in Memphis and Nashville combined with the defection of white working-class voters throughout the Tennessee Valley, with Trump holding strong only in the Nashville suburbs and in Appalachia.

Florida and Texas also deserve their own mention. In Texas, Johannson benefited from the strong upsurge in Latino turnout (which rose from 49% to 67%); from lingerings of anti-Trump hostility and resentments among Cruz supporters and suburban Republicans; and from the wide-spread defections of working class voters, in many rural counties throughout the state. Consequently, Texas saw a dramatic swing in its results, going from 52-43% Trump in 2016 to 63-36% Johannson in 2020, a gain of twenty percentage points. Johannson destroyed Trump in the Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio megalopolises; cleaned up in heavily Hispanic South Texas; and broke through the Republican strongholds in the central and northern portions of the state. In the end, Trump held on to only sixteen counties in the state, predominantly in West Texas, on the Texas-Arkansas border, and in the Texas Panhandle, the worst Republican performance there since Goldwater.

In Florida, Johannson won handily, 58-41%, the first time in 32 years, since the elder Bush's victory in 1988, that a candidate from either party won the state by double digits. Suburban voters and retirees, alienated by Trump's bombast, Republican healthcare and social security initiatives, and by the overall conduct of foreign policy, defected from Trump in droves, handing Johannson such counties as Seminole, Manatee, Polk, Brevard, Duval, Volusia, Marion, Sarasota, Pinellas, and St. Lucie. Strong Hispanic and black turnout led to record Democratic margins in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Osceola, Orange, and Leon Counties, and Johannson also won decisively (59-41%) in Hillsborough County. Even North Florida felt the Johannson wave, going to Trump only 53-47%.

In the Midwest, where white working-class voters felt particularly betrayed by Trump and the Republicans, and had felt the brunt of the economic crisis, Johannson made major gains. He won every state in the region except for Indiana with more than 60% of the vote. Trump lost 64-36% in Minnesota, 69-31% in Illinois, 62-38% in Wisconsin, and an astounding 67-33% in Michigan. In Wisconsin, Johannson became the first Democrat since Johnson to win Waukesha County, where suburban Republicans, never fond of Trump, defected in droves. Even in Ohio, Iowa, and Indiana, the states where Trump had performed the best, the blowback was decisive. Trump lost Indiana 56-44%, with strong Democratic turnout in Indianapolis and Gary joining with the defections of counties across the state; Vigo County, the nation's preeminent bellwether county, went from 54-39% Trump to 61-37% Johannson. Trump also lost in the traditionally Democratic regions of Southern Indiana. His losses in Indiana were attributed to the failures of his economic policies to halt industrial decline in the state, and to the debacles surrounding the Carrier plant deal. In Iowa, Trump lost 62-38% and in Ohio, he lost 63-36%, with suburban Republicans, union voters (whose opinion of him had soured), and minority voters all turning out in force against him. He did terribly on the county level, winning only four in Minnesota, three in Michigan, five in Wisconsin, five in Ohio, four in Illinois, and six in Iowa. Even in Indiana, which had been his best state among these ones, he won only fourteen counties.

Missouri, which had gone 56-38% Trump in 2016, now went 55-45% Johannson. Only in Kentucky and West Virginia did Trump hold. In Kentucky, which he had won 63-33% in 2016, he held on this time by a narrow 50-49% margin, with the historic union and coal counties of Eastern Kentucky abandoning him in droves. In West Virginia, which he had dominated 68-26% over Clinton, Trump won 61-39%, but was denied a full-county sweep, as had occurred in 2016.

The Interior West proved to be Trump's best overall region. Trump won the two Dakotas, but Johannson made significant gains in both states. North Dakota, which had gone 63-27% Trump in 2016, now went 56-44% Trump; South Dakota went from 62-32% Trump to 54-45% Trump, with him prevailing there by 8.25%. In Oklahoma, Trump, who had won 65-29% over Clinton, won again, 58-42%, but was, as in West Virginia, denied a full county sweep. Johannson became the first Democrat since Al Gore in 2000 to win any counties there; he was the first since Johnson in 1964 to win Oklahoma County, home to Oklahoma City, the state's capital city (he won it 55-45%), and the first since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to win Tulsa County (where he prevailed 51-49%). He also won Comanche, Payne, Cleveland, McIntosh, Tuskogee, and Caddo Counties, winning McIntosh, Tuskogee, and Caddo with pluralities.

It was Nebraska and Kansas that yielded to Johannson. In Kansas, the legacy of Gov. Sam Brownback's ruinous administration, which had left the state in a perilous financial and administrative situation, and the ensuing civil war between the confederate and moderate wings of the Republican Party, destroyed that party's dominance there. Moderate white Republicans, in Sedgwick, Shawnee, and Johnson Counties, and also through the central and western regions of the state, disenchanted with their party, and angry with Trump, voted Johannson/Edwards over Trump/Pence. Johannson won Kansas 54-45%, and was also aided by commanding Democratic performances in Douglas and Wyandotte Counties. Nebraska was a closer win, as Trump won the majority of counties in the state, and carried the 3rd district, one of the most Republican in the country. However, Trump's long-standing feud with Sen. Ben Sasse, and his general unpopularity in Omaha and Lincoln, proved decisive. Johannson won the 1st district 53-46%, the 2nd 57-42%, and lost the 3rd 56-42%, a much more respectable margin than Hillary's 74-20% loss there four years earlier. Overall, he won Nebraska 53-47%.

Farther west, the backlash to Trump was wide-ranging. In Montana, which long had a fondness for moderate and populist Democrats, and which had almost voted for Obama in 2008, there was a dramatic shift. Johannson fit the state perfectly, and had campaigned in it vigorously, managing to win over voters weary of Trump. He won 59-41%, a reversal of 2016, when Trump had won 56-35%. Trump held Wyoming, 61-39%, but lost Albany and Laramie Counties; Albany, which he had carried with a plurality of 45-40% against Clinton, went 59-41% Johannson, and Laramie, the state's most populous county, gave a plurality of 49-48% to the Governor. Traditionally Democratic Teton County delivered a much higher Democratic percentage, going from 58-31% Clinton to 67-31% Johannson.

In Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona, Trump lost badly. All three states had large Hispanic populations; Colorado and Arizona had large college-educated and retiree populations, and Arizona, along with New Mexico, had substantial Native American populations. But rural and suburban Republicans alike defected from Trump in large numbers, joining Democratic urban and minority constituencies. In Colorado, Trump lost 64-36%, winning only the strongly Republican Elbert and Washington Counties in the east; in New Mexico, he lost 67-33%, as Johnson 2016 voters returned to the Democratic banner, joining the Trumpian defectors and the large Hispanic turnout. In Arizona, which Trump had carried with a plurality, 48-45%, he went down this time 59-41%, with suburban voters, liberal whites, and Hispanics registering their dissatisfaction with the GOP. Johannson became only the second Democrat since 1948 to win Arizona (following Bill Clinton), and the first since Harry Truman in that year to win Maricopa County, home to Phoenix; he carried Maricopa 58-42%.

In Idaho and Utah, Trump lost as well. Idaho was the closest state in the election, as Trump managed to hold on to several of the populated counties such as Bonneville, Canyon, and Twin Falls, and carried the 2nd district outright. Northern Idaho, however, abandoned the Republican ticket, and Johannson became the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win Ada County, home to Boise, the capital. He carried Ada 51-49%. His strongest performances were in Clearwater and Lewis Counties, winning 76% of the vote in each. Johannson won over half of the state's counties, and bested Trump by a margin of 1.83%, becoming the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to win the state. His victory in Idaho was made possible in large part by Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin voters, who strongly disapproved of Trump and his policies, and who voted almost uniformly for Johannson. In Utah, Johannson won a more comfortable victory, beating Trump by 9.73%. He got over 60% of the vote in Salt Lake County, and over 70% in Summit County, these being traditional Democratic strongholds. He also won 55% in Utah County, which had long been a Republican stronghold. Johannson won the majority of counties in the state as well, beating Trump in Grand and San Juan (which had been carried by pluralities in 2016), and also in Toeele, Weber, Cache, Davis, Wasatch, Dagett, Carbon, Juab, Wayne, and Beaver Counties. As in Idaho, McMullin and Johnson voters lined up in unison behind Johannson, who also won a significant number of Trump defectors, particularly in the southern parts of the state.

Nevada and the states of the Pacific Coast were no surprises. In Nevada, Trump lost 62-39%, with Johannson winning the allegiance of most of the state's rural counties, which had become increasingly lukewarm towards the President, and earning record margins in both Washoe and Clark Counties. California, Washington, and Oregon, all full of minorities and resisting white liberals, proved to be solid locks, even more so then they had been for Clinton. In California, Trump lost 75-25%, the worst loss ever suffered by a Republican there. He won only Glenn, Tehama, Shasta, Lassen, and Modoc Counties, which had been his best counties in the state in 2016. Johannson got over 80% in Los Angeles County, 90% in San Francisco, and 60% in San Diego. In Oregon, Trump lost 68-32%, winning only Josephine and Malheur Counties. And in Washington, Johannson won 70-30%, with Trump winning only Lincoln and Adams Counties.

Alaska and Hawaii too, saw decisive Johannson victories. Johannson won Hawaii 77-23%, outperforming even Obama there, and became the first Democrat since Johnson to win Alaska, carrying it 63-37%. He won every county in both states.

Across the country then, the President-elect won a commanding mandate, far more so than either Trump or Obama had ever enjoyed. By campaigning as a strong populist on the Bernie Sanders model, balanced with a socially moderate veteran (Edwards), as his running mate, Johannson had finally managed to break the polarization patterns in the country, and to reassert the Democratic Party's identity as the party for the working man. He had demolished Trump in the debates, run a very effective advertising campaign and ground-game, and taken moderate stances on issues such as abortion, gun rights, and gay marriage, focusing heavily on his economic and foreign policy agenda. More then anything else, he had capitalized on Trump's extreme unpopularity: in October 2020, Trump's approval rating was just 25%. Johannson had brought all of the disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters back into the Democratic fold. He had won a commanding majority among independents, who strongly disapproved of Trump's policies; won over disaffected suburban and moderate Republicans, Never-Trumpers who had never gotten attuned to his presence in their party; and third-party voters, voters who had gone for Johnson, McMullin, and Stein, out of distaste for the major-party candidates. He had mobilized minorities and the Democratic base, had won back all of the Obama-Trump voters, and the Obama-Romney voters. He had also won new and first-time voters by decisive margins.

The Democrats also won a commanding victory in both houses of Congress. Republican incumbents in Colorado, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, and Mississippi were defeated, with the Democrats also picking up open seats in Maine and South Carolina. The Democrats gained 36 seats in the U.S. House. Their majorities after the election rose to 59-41 in the Senate and 293-142 in the House.